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Danny Manning Credibility Watch Thread Credibility Watch

WFU Lurker said:
Of course SOS matters. I don't know why you keep repeating that like anyone is saying anything different.

That said, wins matter more than anything. Especially to a program that is 7 years into a rebuild.

The gist of your argument is that our efficiencies are closer than expected to those of good opponents but still not better. That is not a compelling story.

I am evaluating the program on what matters to me. Relative efficiencies do not matter to me. I don't care about them. I care about wins, especially wins against good opponents.

If, prior to the last couple of games, you wanted to construct a story around Kenpom then that story needs to focus on the future, how a high Kenpom rating should convert to wins against good (if not necessarily great) teams. Saying we have already arrived when our best win was against #93 College of Charleston is not a good story.
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Taking a program coming off the worst 4 years in it's history back to the top 40 in 2 1-2 years is a good story. It can't stop there so I'm that sense we haven't arrived yet, but we have arrived back in the Top-40.
 
RChildress107 said:
Prior to the Miami game, where would you have rated our team nationally?

What would the record of the #40 team in the country be against our schedule?
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I don't know or care. Being top 40, 50, or 60 in the country simply does not matter to me, or really to anyone. Once you're past the top 25, you are not in the national consciousness.

We have talked about this before so I am not sure why we are beating a dead horse. With how our schedule set up, we did not have many realistic opportunities for the kind of convincing wins I am talking about. We had Northwestern and Clemson. That was pretty much it until this current stretch. And with the way Northwestern has played since our game that probably wasn't realistic.
 
RChildress107 said:
Taking a program coming off the worst 4 years in it's history back to the top 40 in 2 1-2 years is a good story. It can't stop there so I'm that sense we haven't arrived yet, but we have arrived back in the Top-40.
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It isn't a good story when people don't care if we are top 40 or not.

People care about winning games (against quality opponents obviously). If that results in a top 25 ranking in the polls then that's a nice bonus. But top 40? What does that get me?
 
So you aren't satisfied with our team if we aren't in the top 25. That's simple. Not exactly wins and losses, but simple
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
So you aren't satisfied with our team if we aren't in the top 25. That's simple. Not exactly wins and losses, but simple
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That isn't what I meant. As discussed exhaustively prior to this, I care most about wins and losses. Regardless of rank. The only time I actually do care about rank is if we are in the national polls because those polls carry bragging rights. Being top 40 in Kenpom does not carry bragging rights.

Basically, what I am saying is that ranking isn't a very good metric at all for capturing fan sentiment. The emotional rewards your team delivers are what matters. What drives emotional rewards the most: 1) wins against rivals. 2) wins against great teams. 3) wins against good teams.... etc and so forth. Somewhere down the line is position in national polls. Somewhere way way way down the line is position in advanced stat polls. At least for me.
 
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Miserable fucking fan base.

And by fan base I mean people who post on this board
 
After the crap Manning inherited to expect top 25 in year 3 is insane.
 
BigDeac8 said:
After the crap Manning inherited to expect top 25 in year 3 is insane.
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This isn't what's happening on this thread or on the others.

Most posters on here expected us to win between 14-15 and 16-17 games this season, iirc. Someone can dredge up the thread, but I'm pretty sure those were the most popular ranges. That's the baseline expectation from the fan base, as represented by folks on the board.

We are obviously on track to potentially exceed those expectations, which is awesome. Accordingly, expectations shift.

Some posters, myself included were less impressed with Manning's in-game coaching following the Florida State and Clemson games. The response was admittedly a bit extreme, but it's a message board. Manning has also gotten better in this regard, it seems, over the last two games. Accordingly, a lot of posters who were previously skeptical of Manning are warming back up to him. Again, message boards.

This initial critique prompted a lot of statistical masturbation that suggested that, losses aside, we were still exceeding expectations, which is - of course - also correct.

Now, RChildress is asking various posters what their expectations are in terms of general satisfaction with a Wake team and for an NCAA Tournament team. He is satisfied with the team and does not believe that Wake is an NCAA Tournament team. When other posters' answers don't jive with Wake's objective ranking in kenpom, etc. we have posters accusing other posters of being indicative of a miserable fucking fanbase.

That aside, hindsight is 20/20; I don't know how many wins everyone said that we would have, but I know that few - if any - seriously thought that we would be in this position.

As is usually the case on this board and with message boards more generally, I don't think either side of this argument ever actually engaged the other, even though with few exceptions almost everybody appears to be on the same page.
 
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WFU Lurker said:
That isn't what I meant. As discussed exhaustively prior to this, I care most about wins and losses. Regardless of rank. The only time I actually do care about rank is if we are in the national polls because those polls carry bragging rights. Being top 40 in Kenpom does not carry bragging rights.

Basically, what I am saying is that ranking isn't a very good metric at all for capturing fan sentiment. The emotional rewards your team delivers are what matters. What drives emotional rewards the most: 1) wins against rivals. 2) wins against great teams. 3) wins against good teams.... etc and so forth. Somewhere down the line is position in national polls. Somewhere way way way down the line is position in advanced stat polls. At least for me.
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What does individual fan sentiment and emotional awards have to do with evaluating Manning's job performance? I swear if some of y'all ever give millenials shit again this argument is going to hang over your heads.

And here's the thing: if we won the games that would have made you happy this year, we would be a top 25 team. You could probably say that for most years. So in a roundabout way you are saying that if we aren't a top 25 team then you don't care and Manning hasn't met your expectations.
 
Strickland33 said:
This isn't what's happening on this thread or on the others.

Most posters on here expected us to win between 14-15 and 16-17 games this season, iirc. Someone can dredge up the thread, but I'm pretty sure those were the most popular ranges. That's the baseline expectation from the fan base, as represented by folks on the board.

We are obviously on track to potentially exceed those expectations, which is awesome. Accordingly, expectations shift.

Some posters, myself included were less impressed with Manning's in-game coaching following the Florida State and Clemson games. The response was admittedly a bit extreme, but it's a message board. Manning has also gotten better in this regard, it seems, over the last two games. Accordingly, a lot of posters who were previously skeptical of Manning are warming back up to him. Again, message boards.

This initial critique prompted a lot of statistical masturbation that suggested that, losses aside, we were still exceeding expectations, which is - of course - also correct.

Now, RChildress is asking various posters what their expectations are in terms of general satisfaction with a Wake team and for an NCAA Tournament team. He is satisfied with the team and does not believe that Wake is an NCAA Tournament team. When other posters' answers don't jive with Wake's objective ranking in kenpom, etc. we have posters accusing other posters of being indicative of a miserable fucking fanbase.

That aside, hindsight is 20/20; I don't know how many wins everyone said that we would have, but I know that few - if any - seriously thought that we would be in this position.

As is usually the case on this board and with message boards more generally, I don't think either side of this argument ever actually engaged the other, even though with few exceptions almost everybody appears to be on the same page.
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This is pretty incredible revisionist history.

Prior to the last two games a large portion of this board was arguing that Manning was not meeting expectations, sucked at pretty much every aspect of coaching, and definitively was not the answer. Being a top 45 team in pretty much every ranking system was meaningless and to the extent it did mean something it still wasn't meeting expectations.

Now you are claiming that Manning is exceeding most people's reasonable expectations, that the board agreed with this sentiment a week ago and that the criticism of Manning was just minor critiquing if in game coaching.

A job in the Department of Truth awaits you my friend.
 
It's all about results, team, coach and players.

Before the season many insisted that if Dinos had to play a lot we'd be in trouble, but we've seen he's worked on his inside game and provides some support around the boards. Sure we'd all like more scoring but I think most would say we need him to continue to contribute and no one is trying to bench him.

MW, lots asking to completely limit his minutes. People were furious as he continued to start over Woods. Even when he went to the bench still a lot of complaints about his time, now many are seeing that he's adding value and are a lot happier with his contribution.

Childress was ok in the preseason for the most part, then he struggled and people flipped and said 5 min at most, now he's seemed to figure it out and people are back on board.

Manning, FSU, Clemson and other some serious in game questions around TO's and lineups. Not saying he's solved those but a couple of wins and the tide has shifted a bit.

The team beats up on Miami then backs it up with a road win at State. A week ago talk of NCAAT would have been completely beaten down, now we have optimism (cautious a least).

Fans, sports and the internet, go figure.
 
RChildress107 said:
This is pretty incredible revisionist history.

Prior to the last two games a large portion of this board was arguing that Manning was not meeting expectations, sucked at pretty much every aspect of coaching, and definitively was not the answer. Being a top 45 team in pretty much every ranking system was meaningless and to the extent it did mean something it still wasn't meeting expectations.

Now you are claiming that Manning is exceeding most people's reasonable expectations, that the board agreed with this sentiment a week ago and that the criticism of Manning was just minor critiquing if in game coaching.

A job in the Department of Truth awaits you my friend.
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In my post that you quoted, I claimed that Manning is on track to exceed the expectations that we as a fan base - as represented by a pre-season poll on a message board - set at the beginning of the season.

Expectations have shifted since, which is a great thing; some posters are content with our progress and others are less content. You're conflating the two sets of expectations. Regardless, we're on track to exceed our pre-season expectations.

I also didn't characterize the criticism of Manning as minor; in my post that you quoted I called it "admittedly a bit extreme."

None of this matters, but I feel like you're manufacturing an issue where there isn't one. You didn't like how some of us - myself included - responded to the Clemson and Florida State losses. I get it and in hindsight it was probably a bit histrionic; I feel pretty foolish about most of my sports takes a week after I make them, but that's how message boards work.

Your response turned out to be the right one; I'm happy for you, the team, and the fan base that it has and I personally enjoyed watching the Miami and State games a good deal. I feel like everybody is pretty excited now that we're winning again and most critical posters have backed off of their more extreme critiques. Winning feels good; losing feels less good. #sports
 
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Va Tech is still ranked behind Wake but now is 15-4 (4-3). Which position would you prefer to be in today RC107? I love KenPom, but would take VT's year to date.
 
Nice playing with you Junebug, but I'm done with this matter.

Nice try...
 
Junebug said:
When was the last time an offer--not an acceptance, but an offer--to be an assistant coach made the news? I can't recall ever hearing about it.
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I recall we all were aware when Battle was offered a job at Providence to be an assistant.
 
daaberry said:
Va Tech is still ranked behind Wake but now is 15-4 (4-3). Which position would you prefer to be in today RC107? I love KenPom, but would take VT's year to date.
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VPI still has to play: UVA (x2), @UNC, @Louisville, and @Miami.

It's pretty close, but VPI played the 340th ranked OOC schedule. Also the 12th easiest schedule in the ACC before tonight. Probably about even with us know. We should wind up tight at the end of the season.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
VPI still has to play: UVA (x2), @UNC, @Louisville, and @Miami.

It's pretty close, but VPI played the 340th ranked OOC schedule. Also the 12th easiest schedule in the ACC before tonight. Probably about even with us know. We should wind up tight at the end of the season.
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Was thinking about this earlier. There's a good chance that our last game @VPI could determine who makes NCAAT or the NIT. Anything can still happen at this point but it's fun to be semi relevant.
 
We could jump Tech and make the tourney with a 9-9 record against their 10-8 because of our SOS. Even more so if we beat them head-to-head.
 
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