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Danny Manning Credibility Watch Thread Credibility Watch

We still suck. Beating State is no reason for the ticker tape parade RJ wants to throw for Manning.
 
RJKarl said:
I'm not sure which moon knows less about - basketball or comedy.
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Not moon and all you have to do is look at the record. Jeff [Redacted] produced better records than Manning. You rainbow warriors and commies just can't stand the thought of handing Manning the pink slip he richly deserves. The good news is you can hire another minority coach--for example, Kevin Keatts--and get the best of all worlds: libcred and good basketball. Get your heads out of your asses people!!! We suck!!!
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's mind-boggling to me that people still don't understand the basics of KenPom despite years of discussion on it.

1. Wins and losses do not matter at all
2. All the matter is offensive and defensive efficiency (adjusted for strength of opponent).
3. The Four Factors that go into each of those are: effective field goal %, offensive rebounding %, turnover %, and free throw attempts/field goal attempts

Wins and losses are all that matter at the end of the day to fans, and results, but when you are looking for predictive analysis, and how "improved" the team is overall, wins don't matter at all in the KenPom world.

All that matters is how efficient you are on both sides of the ball, and the strength of the opponent you play.
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Who are you claiming doesn't understand it?
 
PhDeac said:
This whole argument. You're trying to stifle any skepticism about projections.

No idea. I hope so. Depends on what the committee values unless we get some Top 25 wins or make it to Saturday in Brooklyn.

No idea. I don't watch enough of other teams. I think this team is on par with past Wake NIT teams.
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I'm not trying to stifle anything. In fact a large number of my posts have been asking for more information from pessimists such as yourself. I'm also not judging Manning based on how I think the rest of the season is going to go. I'm judging him solely on what he has done to date.

Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that Wake is going to be a top 40 team at the end of this year. I'm arguing that they are a top 40 team right now, based solely on their performance to date. They may improve and finish higher safely in the tourney, stay the same and be on the bubble, or fade down the stretch and miss the postseason altogether. It seems silly to assume one of those options when judging Manning's performance as head coach.
 
PhDeac said:
This whole argument. You're trying to stifle any skepticism about projections.

No idea. I hope so. Depends on what the committee values unless we get some Top 25 wins or make it to Saturday in Brooklyn.

No idea. I don't watch enough of other teams. I think this team is on par with past Wake NIT teams.
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So to summarize where we are:

Ph: Manning hasn't met expectations and I don't think the evidence suggests he's going to get us to where we need to be.

Me: We are a top 40 team halfway through year 3. That progress is consistent with similar rebuilds led by universally respected coaches (ex. Tony Bennett). So either Manning has met expectations or the expectations are unreasonable.

Ph: yeah but he hasn't beaten ranked teams or won games on the road.

Me: Our schedule is top 10 in the country. A top 40 team would be expected to be 12-7 against our schedule. If we did the things you asked we would be a top 25 team and Manning would be setting the gold standard of college rebuilds.

Ph: yeah but I'm tired of losing.

Me: I am too. But that doesn't change the fact that we are a top 40 team. Do you disagree that we are a top 40 team?

Ph: I don't know enough to even make an educated guess and I don't trust college basketball experts. I don't feel good about our basketball team though so Manning must suck.
 
Junebug said:
What is your source that Dino hasn't been offered a spot as an assistant coach?
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First of all, if he had been offered, there would have been news. Secondly, I didn't say I had a source. If I did say that, I would not post who the source is as that's how you lose real sources.
 
deacinpoland said:
We still suck. Beating State is no reason for the ticker tape parade RJ wants to throw for Manning.
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Reading is Fundamental. All I said was that he came up with a good tactic. Only a snarky fool would try to extrapolate as you did.
 
RChildress107 said:
We are a top 40 basketball team. If that sucks (especially when compared to the last 6 years) then to quote the late Justice Scalia, "words no longer have meaning."
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Maybe Casey Kasem's corpse will give us a long distance dedication from the grave to mark making the top 40.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's mind-boggling to me that people still don't understand the basics of KenPom despite years of discussion on it.

1. Wins and losses do not matter at all
2. All the matter is offensive and defensive efficiency (adjusted for strength of opponent).
3. The Four Factors that go into each of those are: effective field goal %, offensive rebounding %, turnover %, and free throw attempts/field goal attempts

Wins and losses are all that matter at the end of the day to fans, and results, but when you are looking for predictive analysis, and how "improved" the team is overall, wins don't matter at all in the KenPom world.

All that matters is how efficient you are on both sides of the ball, and the strength of the opponent you play.
Click to expand...

I assume this is directed at me. I understand perfectly well how Kenpom works. We were rated highly because we performed well on losses to great teams and performed well in wins over average to bad teams.

Yes, it's great as a predictive tool, but record is an extremely important part of evaluating performance, especially for a program in the midst of an eternal rebuild, that experienced an epic meltdown last season, and is coached by a coach with 1 winning season on his resume.

My job is to quantify problems. But, that doesn't do shit if you don't appropriately consider the context and aren't able to build a compelling story that incorporates the quant into that context. For whatever reason, the Kenpom fanatics haven't realized that their analytics aren't very compelling within the context and that it is perfectly reasonable for fans to want more than just improvement in advanced stats before they can really feel good about this team. Now we have entered a part of our schedule where we can rack up some wins against quality opponents and start to really understand where we stand.
 
WFU Lurker said:
I assume this is directed at me. I understand perfectly well how Kenpom works. We were rated highly because we performed well on losses to great teams and performed well in wins over average to bad teams.

Yes, it's great as a predictive tool, but record is an extremely important part of evaluating performance, especially for a program in the midst of an eternal rebuild, that experienced an epic meltdown last season, and is coached by a coach with 1 winning season on his resume.

My job is to quantify problems. But, that doesn't do shit if you don't appropriately consider the context and aren't able to build a compelling story that incorporates the quant into that context. For whatever reason, the Kenpom fanatics haven't realized that their analytics aren't very compelling within the context and that it is perfectly reasonable for fans to want more than just improvement in advanced stats before they can really feel good about this team. Now we have entered a part of our schedule where we can rack up some wins against quality opponents and start to really understand where we stand.
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The advanced stats are measuring our real quality of play on the court. This season we are actually playing like a top 40 team.

For some reason, there are reasonable people who seem unwilling to put our record into any sort of context. I wish we were 16-3 and a top 20 team. Instead we are 12-7 and a top 40 team. If you can't feel good about a top 40 team after the last 6 years or recognize the significant progress we have made, I can't help you and I feel sorry for you.
 
We are a top 40 team with our current record. I wish we were a top 25 team, but I am relatively satisfied with top 40.
 
RChildress107 said:
The advanced stats are measuring our real quality of play on the court. This season we are actually playing like a top 40 team.

For some reason, there are reasonable people who seem unwilling to put our record into any sort of context. I wish we were 16-3 and a top 20 team. Instead we are 12-7 and a top 40 team. If you can't feel good about a top 40 team after the last 6 years or recognize the significant progress we have made, I can't help you and I feel sorry for you.
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I don't yet believe that we are good enough to end up with a record close to what the KenPom projections are (which is currently 9-9 in conference). If we lose out, we are not a top 40 team. If we win out, we are a top 15 team (maybe higher).

I was happy we won yesterday. I will be happier if we win at Syracuse. I won't give a shit what the projections are if we blow a 20 point lead against Syracuse and lose on a contested 35 footer at the buzzer. I will be pissed because we lost.

I'd be willing to bet that if you asked every poster on this board whether they would be willing to cancel the season and skip to the ACC tourney with a 9-9 conference record, 80% plus would take that. And if that happens, people will generally be happy and excited with what Coach Manning has accomplished. But with the stink of last year's collapse fresh in our minds, please forgive us for waiting for the other shoe to drop.
 
DeaconSig said:
I don't yet believe that we are good enough to end up with a record close to what the KenPom projections are (which is currently 9-9 in conference). If we lose out, we are not a top 40 team. If we win out, we are a top 15 team (maybe higher).

I was happy we won yesterday. I will be happier if we win at Syracuse. I won't give a shit what the projections are if we blow a 20 point lead against Syracuse and lose on a contested 35 footer at the buzzer. I will be pissed because we lost.

I'd be willing to bet that if you asked every poster on this board whether they would be willing to cancel the season and skip to the ACC tourney with a 9-9 conference record, 80% plus would take that. And if that happens, people will generally be happy and excited with what Coach Manning has accomplished. But with the stink of last year's collapse fresh in our minds, please forgive us for waiting for the other shoe to drop.
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No way last year's team goes 29-33 from the FT line. These guys are getting better.
 
RChildress107 said:
Record alone is actually a pretty shitty way of evaluating a team. At a minimum you need an understanding of who that record was achieved against.
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Of course SOS matters. I don't know why you keep repeating that like anyone is saying anything different.

That said, wins matter more than anything. Especially to a program that is 7 years into a rebuild.

The gist of your argument is that our efficiencies are closer than expected to those of good opponents but still not better. That is not a compelling story.

I am evaluating the program on what matters to me. Relative efficiencies do not matter to me. I don't care about them. I care about wins, especially wins against good opponents.

If, prior to the last couple of games, you wanted to construct a story around Kenpom then that story needs to focus on the future, how a high Kenpom rating should convert to wins against good (if not necessarily great) teams. Saying we have already arrived when our best win was against #93 College of Charleston is not a good story.
 
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WFU Lurker said:
Of course SOS matters. I don't know why you keep repeating that like anyone is saying anything different.

That said, wins matter more than anything. Especially to a program that is 7 years into a rebuild.

The gist of your argument is that our efficiencies are closer than expected to those of good opponents but still not better. That is not a compelling story.

I am evaluating the program on what matters to me. Relative efficiencies do not matter to me. I don't care about them. I care about wins, especially wins against good opponents.

If, prior to the last couple of games, you wanted to construct a story around Kenpom then that story needs to focus on the future, how a high Kenpom rating should convert to wins against good (if not necessarily great) teams. Saying we have already arrived when our best win was against #93 College of Charleston is not a good story.
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Prior to the Miami game, where would you have rated our team nationally?

What would the record of the #40 team in the country be against our schedule?
 
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