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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

1. Define momentum mathematically

2. p = mv

3. Let KenPom play the game for us

4. ???

5. PROFIT
 
Deacsfan27 said:
How would you subscribe that to "momentum"? Once again, I think a definition of "momentum" would go a long way in this discussion. We may be talking about the same thing existing, but subscribing different words to it.

He shot 21/33 (64%), which is no doubt a good spurt of shooting, but not one that is completely outrageous from a statistical spectrum. I'm sure he's shot 64% on 33 shots before over several games, this just occurred over the course of one game. That doesn't mean he had the "hot hand". It means that we witnessed a spurt of above average shooting contained in one game where he made 21/33 shots.
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Yes. If we only look at 33 shots from various other games and make sure we "randomly" select 21 of them that were successful FGs, then we could find that he did this.


What are you even talking about?
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I would give a player who made 10 shots in a row a slightly higher likelihood to make the next one than a player who had just missed 10 shots purely based on confidence (I like the word confidence better than momentum). It would be like how a coach could normally have a player who they prefer to take the end-of-game shot but if a player is shooting 6/6 on threes that game they would give them the opportunity instead. Like our game against Georgia Tech at their place in maybe 2005(?) when Taron Downey hit a game-tying 3 but Skip called a timeout before it went in so it didn't count. We came out of the timeout and he gave the ball right back to Downey because he wanted it and was confident he was going to make it and he did (and-1, missed the FT to win, snapping some crazy FT streak we had going). I don't recall him being the go-to end-of-game guy.

I understand it's a difficult topic because there really isn't any way to quantify it, it just seems like it would go under a "human error" section that would skew statistics slightly.
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That was against FSU, not GT

grrrrrrrrrrrrrr
 
deacvision7 said:
Yes. If we only look at 33 shots from various other games and make sure we "randomly" select 21 of them that were successful FGs, then we could find that he did this.

What are you even talking about?
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To clarify, I'm sure Thompson has made exactly 21 shots out of 33 shots a few times in his career if you look at any span of 33 consecutive field goal attempts.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
Do you believe in a player being clutch? To me this is undeniable.
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What do you mean by clutch? That player's perform "well" (define well) above their career average when "the game is on the line" (would need a definition of this time frame as well)?
 
oh shit i ran those too (mostly 4X8 and 2 mile)

sucks y'all didn't have espo as a coach
 
TownieDeac said:
oh shit i ran those too (mostly 4X8 and 2 mile)

sucks y'all didn't have espo as a coach
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The 400 is absolute torture. Would not recommend.

Me: "so what's the sprint/jog strategy"
Clinks: "you sprint the whole time"
Me: "....uh ok"
 
i ran the 4X4 once as a freshman in a dual meet against page

matt debole, jmee samuels, jerrod wiley, and me

LOLOL

i didn't run the 4X4 ever again
 
WFcatamount22 said:
Do you believe in a player being clutch? To me this is undeniable.
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I'm not a big believer in clutch as a positive deviation from the norm. I think people can be anticlutch where the moment is too big for them.
 
TownieDeac said:
i ran the 4X4 once as a freshman in a dual meet against page

matt debole, jmee samuels, jerrod wiley, and me

LOLOL

i didn't run the 4X4 ever again
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That's quite the team...Numbers had to run the primary heat in City-County for the 400 because Marc Heyer dislocated his hip when he finished up the qualification race. I think he beat somebody, but lost by like 100M to the fastest guy (maybe more).
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Played golf and ran track in high school but that's about it.

Don't get me wrong. When I am on the golf course having a good day, I'm not out there thinking "wow, what are the odds of this!!!", I'm thinking "damn I'm playing well today". Nor am I constantly evaluating the odds on what type of shot to play. I play by what I think feels right, and live with the result. If I were trying to make a living doing that (which I clearly don't have the skill to do), I would probably figure out the percentages on hitting a flop vs. a knockdown based on my skill level in certain situations to figure out which shot is the best to attempt at any given time.
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The golf analogy is a good one. There have been times where I played and felt like I couldn't miss. I could move the ball however I wanted and could hit the ball squarely all day. The next day I'd go out an drop an 85 and be almost a completely different player. Confidence has a lot to do with it but, when you're hot, I think your muscle memory gets dialed in on the short term based on the success you've had from your recent motions (shot, swing, etc.)
 
RaleighTriad said:
Would DM make a good track coach?
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I remember one of the basketball dudes on Skip's/Dino's teams told me that they all had to run the mile in under five minutes. That was probably a *slight* exaggeration. I bet Ish could have done it. Maybe James Johnson. Lol at anybody else getting even close.
 
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