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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

siff said:
They only count in futbol, amirite?
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If you consider how I use stats in footy to how doofy uses them in bball the same, then you are woefully ignorant in both respects.

If you were just joking and my sarcasm meter missed it, then, ok, I get it, that's funny.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I definitely agree that there are obvious times to use them (injury/fatigue/something blatant occurring on the court).
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lol, dude, literally 4 posts above you said you don't believe in momentum.
 
Ayo said:
lol, dude, literally 4 posts above you said you don't believe in momentum.
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I don't think Pilch mentioned the fabled MOMENTUM in his reasons for using a timeout.


However, I don't understand how anybody could participate in, or, watch sports for years and years and years and not believe that momentum exists in sports. That's crazy talk to me. It all averages out in the end, of course, but hot spurts happen and players gain/lose confidence based on how the game is unfolding. That is the human element of sports.

Just because you can't replicate it on spreadsheet doesn't mean it doesn't exist. No scientific poll will ever be 100% accurate. That's why there are margins of error. Because humans error. A lot.
 
I mean, the human element even happens in video games when you are playing with your boys.

Up 2-0 in FIFA and all the sudden your goal is under threat. 3 shots saved. 4th saved...but the rebound is put in! 2-1!


Now you are nervous that your friend is going to equalize soon so you start just hoofing it away from your 18 and stop trying to play how you were earlier when you built the 2-0 lead. Human element.

Then again, doofus fucking blows at FIFA so maybe this analogy will fall on deaf ears. Womp womp.
 
Ayo said:
lol, dude, literally 4 posts above you said you don't believe in momentum.
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If somebody is injured and you call timeout that has nothing to do with momentum.

If somebody is tired and you call timeout to pull him that has nothing to do with momentum.

If it's nearing the end of the half and you are on offense and want to draw a specific play that the team doesn't know you want to run that has nothing to do with momentum.

Those are times I would use timeout. None of them have anything at all to do with momentum. What part of my post did you misunderstand Ayo?
 
Deacsfan27 said:
If somebody is injured and you call timeout that has nothing to do with momentum.

If somebody is tired and you call timeout to pull him that has nothing to do with momentum.

If it's nearing the end of the half and you are on offense and want to draw a specific play that the team doesn't know you want to run that has nothing to do with momentum.

Those are times I would use timeout. None of them have anything at all to do with momentum. What part of my post did you misunderstand Ayo?
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deacvision7 said:
I don't think Pilch mentioned the fabled MOMENTUM in his reasons for using a timeout.


However, I don't understand how anybody could participate in, or, watch sports for years and years and years and not believe that momentum exists in sports. That's crazy talk to me. It all averages out in the end, of course, but hot spurts happen and players gain/lose confidence based on how the game is unfolding. That is the human element of sports.

Just because you can't replicate it on spreadsheet doesn't mean it doesn't exist. No scientific poll will ever be 100% accurate. That's why there are margins of error. Because humans error. A lot.
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I got your back, dog.
 
In order to even debate this we would need to properly define what "momentum" means in the context of sports.

I assume it's different to many people. Some people think the "hot hand" is momentum. I don't believe in that either. I just believe that it's a small sample that goes against what we expect to happen.

If you toss a coin an infinite amount of times then there are surely going to be long streaks where it comes up heads or tails. That doesn't mean the next toss is anything other than purely 50/50 with the world that we currently know exists.

Laying framework for the discussion would help if anybody is really interested in talking about it.

Anyway, we went down a rabbit hole. I'm fine with calling timeouts in certain situations (as I stated above), but would want to see rationale for calling timeouts merely to "stop a run" from the other team.
 
In the 2012 Nebraska vs Illinois basketball game, the Huskers went on a 40 - 2 run and Bruce Weber never called a time out. I think maybe taking one there to regroup the team might have helped slow down Nebraska's momentum.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
In order to even debate this we would need to properly define what "momentum" means in the context of sports.

I assume it's different to many people. Some people think the "hot hand" is momentum. I don't believe in that either. I just believe that it's a small sample that goes against what we expect to happen.

If you toss a coin an infinite amount of times then there are surely going to be long streaks where it comes up heads or tails. That doesn't mean the next toss is anything other than purely 50/50 with the world that we currently know exists.

Laying framework for the discussion would help if anybody is really interested in talking about it.

Anyway, we went down a rabbit hole. I'm fine with calling timeouts in certain situations (as I stated above), but would want to see rationale for calling timeouts merely to "stop a run" from the other team.
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Did you just compare sports -- where emotion and human error are involved -- to flipping a coin which is literally just a 50/50 chance each flip?



As I said, you rely on statistics too much. I love statistics, but Jesus fucking Christ, dude. Equating things in real life with human interaction to coin flips, which involves no true human interaction other than the coin flip is why people take true blood statisticians like without seriousness.

You are an enemy of the good for the purpose of the perfect (which isn't attainable because we are humans).


How do you not see this? Statistics are fantastic over long trends. Of course they are. But statistics are rather shit when it comes to minute-to-minute updates. Especially when human beings are involved. This isn't a complicated concept, is it?
 
deacvision7 said:
Did you just compare sports -- where emotion and human error are involved -- to flipping a coin which is literally just a 50/50 chance each flip?



As I said, you rely on statistics too much. I love statistics, but Jesus fucking Christ, dude. Equating things in real life with human interaction to coin flips, which involves no true human interaction other than the coin flip is why people take true blood statisticians like without seriousness.

You are an enemy of the good for the purpose of the perfect (which isn't attainable because we are humans).


How do you not see this? Statistics are fantastic over long trends. Of course they are. But statistics are rather shit when it comes to minute-to-minute updates. Especially when human beings are involved. This isn't a complicated concept, is it?
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TIMTCR
 
Whenever I'm watching one of my teams on the road and we're suffering through a bad run, I instinctively hate when we call a timeout, because it gives the crowd a chance to erupt and go bonkers. I know logically that calling timeouts has historically been a go-to move for stopping runs, but the crowd's raucous noise makes me forget logic.

What's funny is that crowds often forfeit their advantage by calming down by the time play resumes.
 
Yeah, because it is hard to stay hype when awful dancers and cheerleaders are doing the same thing for 90 seconds that you've seen hundreds of times before.

But that isn't why timeouts are good.

Setting up players aren't why timeouts are good.


Regrouping and refocusing players are why timeouts are good. Just sucks we can't measure those two intangibles. CURSES!
 
Momentum doesn't matter in sports.



Lost $50 bucks to a good friend that game. Took Maryland when he said Duke would win where they were down 10 with 1 minute left. No odds. No points. Straight up. I lost.



But honestly, I think my favorite part of this inane argument that my good friend, doofus - for real! I do like him!, is making is that there can be no statistical anomalies during a game like "momentum" or "hot hands" but then says after games end and a 20% dog won, "well that is just statistics! things happen!"

It is so mind-fuckingly inconsistent.
 
It is extremely difficult for me to believe that anyone who believes that momentum is imaginary has ever laced them up or carried a clipboard. Basketball momentum is very real.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I think flipping a coin is actually a good comparison because it describes basic probability, which is at the heart of statistical analysis. If I were to flip a coin 140 times, there would be "streaks" in which we landed on heads multiple times (3,4,5) in a row. For example, there is a approximately a 3% chance of flipping 5 heads in a row. Over 140 flips, it will likely happen. We are biased because of our emotional entanglement with sports. When we see "streaks" that are occurring well within the realm of chance, we erroneously attribute it to the emotional element. Thus, it gets back to the definition of "momentum". It seems we would define something as momentum if streaks occur that could not be likely attributed to chance alone. If it does not exceed what we would expect by chance, then it is not having an actual impact.

So, is there an emotional element related to confidence that exists in sports. I am sure there is evidence to suggest this based on self report. Does it impact the streaks that occur in games? Not in a significant way.
 
I'm pretty statistically inclined but think momentum can be explained in instances where a team is rattled and gets out of sync. If a team just isn't hitting shots and the deficit creeps up, that's not necessarily a momentum shift. I think fans are quick to label normal runs as momentum shifts when that's just part of the game.

Agree that a working definition of momentum would be helpful.

Also agree that fans overemphasize timeout usage because it's an easy criticism. Same goes for free throw shooting.
 
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