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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

Wakeforest22890 said:
Yeah I'm confused why the one he took the last couple weeks didn't get counted (against GT maybe?). It could've come after the buzzer but I didn't think so.
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From my one sports information class in 2001, the 1/2 court heaves don't count as attempts if they don't go in.
 
TripleDeacon said:
Highest PER on the board by a mile.
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JC is incredibly valuable. However, the weakness of PER is quite evident. Harry Biles' PER is higher than Kansas' Devonte Graham. It's virtually the same as Grayson Allen's and within 10% or less of Jason Tatum and Da'aron Fox.

There's no reasonable rationale to argue that his performance and production is in the ballpark of any of those. I'm not talking potential. PER is supposed to be about production.
 
PER is pretty limited but it is minute based production metric. So when Giles averages 5 ppg / 4rpg / 0.6 bpg in only 12 min/game that's going to lead to a good PER. The same PER as someone who averages 15/12/2 playing 36 min/game or whatever.
 
FckVwls said:
PER is pretty limited but it is minute based production metric. So when Giles averages 5 ppg / 4rpg / 0.6 bpg in only 12 min/game that's going to lead to a good PER. The same PER as someone who averages 15/12/2 playing 36 min/game or whatever.
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But he he is physically incapable of playing those minutes. Thus the numbers make no sense.

At the heart of the premise is the bogus concept that you will get the same numbers playing against starters as you would against subs.
 
Ball State Deac said:
From my one sports information class in 2001, the 1/2 court heaves don't count as attempts if they don't go in.
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I read an article somewhere that many NBA players will purposely not take half court heave shots so as not to mess with the fg%. Maybe that is an NBA rule, but I found that interesting.
 
RJKarl said:
But he he is physically incapable of playing those minutes. Thus the numbers make no sense.

At the heart of the premise is the bogus concept that you will get the same numbers playing against starters as you would against subs.
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Uuuugggggghhhhh dude seriously, not this shit again. It's a tool for measuring a player's efficiency, it's not the Gospel
 
RJKarl said:
But he he is physically incapable of playing those minutes. Thus the numbers make no sense.

At the heart of the premise is the bogus concept that you will get the same numbers playing against starters as you would against subs.
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Yeah man, you actually have to like, use like your brain. You take inputs like "How productive is this player per minute" and you combine it with many other inputs and logic to determine how good a player is.

That doesn't mean having a number that summarizes per minute raw production is dumb.
 
While you guys are correctly saying that PER is just a metric, you also seem to be agreeing with RJ that it is effectively useless and can be superceded easily by things like logic or even a gut feeling. That's not a stat with any value IMO.
 
Doggus said:
While you guys are correctly saying that PER is just a metric, you also seem to be agreeing with RJ that it is effectively useless and can be superceded easily by things like logic or even a gut feeling. That's not a stat with any value IMO.
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There is no stat for basketball that can do a decent job of rating a player by itself. You always have to combine lots of inputs. PER is going to be better than points per game, are you saying we shouldn't keep track of how many points people score and that doesn't have any value?
 
Doggus said:
While you guys are correctly saying that PER is just a metric, you also seem to be agreeing with RJ that it is effectively useless and can be superceded easily by things like logic or even a gut feeling. That's not a stat with any value IMO.
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SHHHHHHHHH...don't confuse them with their own words.

Remember, PER is not very useful, but it's among the first they use to determine a player's value.

But at the same time, it isn't that important. :)
 
Ball State Deac said:
From my one sports information class in 2001, the 1/2 court heaves don't count as attempts if they don't go in.
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This can't be true. What if it's a shot 3 feet in front of half court? 8 feet? 15 feet? How about a half court shot with 2 seconds still on the clock?
 
FckVwls said:
There is no stat for basketball that can do a decent job of rating a player by itself. You always have to combine lots of inputs. PER is going to be better than points per game, are you saying we shouldn't keep track of how many points people score and that doesn't have any value?
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No. Totals per game are actually meaningful. PER is not worth mentioning IMO. What was John Collins PER last year? Did it predict his success this year?
 
RJKarl said:
SHHHHHHHHH...don't confuse them with their own words.

Remember, PER is not very useful, but it's among the first they use to determine a player's value.

But at the same time, it isn't that important. :)
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Nuance, grammar, and spelling: RJ's nemeses.
 
Doggus said:
No. Totals per game are actually meaningful. PER is not worth mentioning IMO. What was John Collins PER last year? Did it predict his success this year?
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His PER last year was around 21. That would put him right around top 25 in this years crop of players, surrounded by guys like Bryant Crawford, Dwayne Bacon, Tyler Lydon, and Grayson Allen. I would say that as a freshman in limited minutes his PER last year was very predictive of some of the success he was going to have this year. He proved that in the minutes he was getting, that he could contribute. Obviously this year he sits at #1 in the conference at 35.14 as he has taken a giant leap forward in productivity and minutes, but his PER last year was a good sign that he would be able to fill Devin Thomas' shoes (23.8 PER in 15-16).
 
Doggus said:
No. Totals per game are actually meaningful. PER is not worth mentioning IMO. What was John Collins PER last year? Did it predict his success this year?
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Collins' PER last year was 21.8, which is pretty decent, and was the 2nd best PER on the team behind Devin Thomas (23.8). Collins' conference numbers declined a little bit to 18.3, which was 2nd best on the team for players that logged more than 200 minutes (Moore had a PER in conference play of 34.1, but played just over half the minutes that Collins did). Collins also had the 2nd highest eFG% and TS% on the team after Moore. His win shares per 40 minutes was also the highest on the team; obviously his actual win shares were lower because he played fewer minutes due to not starting and have persistent foul trouble. In short, the advanced numbers showed the Collins was an effective and efficient player while he was on the floor.

In spite of playing more minutes, Collins' PER is substantially higher this year (34.5). Almost all of his advanced numbers have improved this year over last. I'm not any kind of expert to say whether his numbers from last year predicted an improvement of the kind we have seen this year, but my guess is that development of Collins' degree is pretty rare.
 
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