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Kentucky Derby- Post Position and Morning Line Odds

I think Uncle Mo will have 3-4 horses in the starting Saturday. He could have the two favorites.

Tapit is standing for $300,000. Pioneer of the Nile and Uncle Mo may reach that.
 
Anybody know when they typically start taking off track derby bets? can I make em Thursday? are places/dog tracks different about that?
 
Typically Derby bets can start being made on Friday. You can make them anywhere that has inter-track wagering.
 
The post positions will be drawn today. The bad posts are 1-3 and 19/20. The best are 7-10 and 14/15. At 7-10 you can see what everyone else is doing. 14/15 are really good because there is a six foot gap between the starting gates. You are much less likely to get jostled coming out of the gate.

This looks like the first year in about five that no one is going to either the Oaks or Derby. That's too bad.

The biggest question is was Mohaymen's last race one to draw a line through or did it show that Nyquist is that much better. In handicapping if a horse has an atypical race, you can decide to "draw a line through it" and ignore it. I'm tending to believe Nyquist is better.

No horse has ever won coming over from UAE. It's not really fair to a 3 yo to even try. Mature horses often take 3-6 months to re-acclimate to US time zones. It's not realistic to think a 3 yo can do it in less than sixty days.

Hopefully, Saturday's program will be available tomorrow.
 
Here is the draw:

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/4/11...rby-post-positions-draw-live-nyquist-mohaymen
1 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 50-1
2 Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez Donnie Von Hemel 20-1
3 Creator Ricardo Santana Jr Steven Asmussen 10-1
4 Mo Tom Corey Lanerie Thomas Amoss 20-1
5 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steven Asmussen 10-1
6 My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr. Chad Brown 20-1
7 Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux Michael Maker 20-1
8 Lani Yukata Take Mikio Matsunaga 30-1
9 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Whitmore Victor Espinoza Ron Moquett 20-1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux J. Keith Desormeaux 8-1
12 Tom's Ready Brian Hernandez Jr Dallas Stewart 30-1
13 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 3-1
14 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
15 Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 15-1
16 Shagaf Joel Rosario Chad Brown 20-1
17 Mor Spirit Gary Stevens Bob Baffert 12-1
18 Majesto Emisael Jaramillo Gustavo Delgado 30-1
19 Brody's Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 12-1
20 Danzing Candy Mike Smith Clifford Sise Jr 15-1

This could mean a fast pace. #20, Danzing Candy will have to go fast to get the lead. The next question is can Outwork leave and get a trip or sit off of Nyquist.

I am surprised that Nyquist is at 3-1 and no one else is under 8-1. Nyquist has beaten second favorite Exaggerator multiple times.
 
Here are some thoughts:

I can't believe there are three maiden races on the Derby Day card.

This is a mediocre crop of 3 yos.

I may end my four year run of Derby exactas.

I'd really like Suddenbreakingnews in the exotics if not for the jockey. Quinonez was bottom/lower middle of jockeys when he was in CA. This horse needs a good ride.

Not sure how Mor Spirit can win. He will be shuffled way back.
 
I'm trying to find a way to beat Nyquist but can't so far.

Would love to see how Brody's Cause can be better than 18-20th after the first half mile into a moderate pace but can't.

I may go more heavily into the Pick 4 than in the past.
 
Here's a $54 Pick 4:

9th Race : 1,4,8
10th Race: 5,9,10, 11 the 5 may be a really good long shot 15-1 morning line
11th Race: 3, 8, 12
12th -KY Derby: 2 (Suddenbreakingnews), 11 (Exaggerator), 13 (Nyquist)

I am leaning heavily towards Nyquist. He may become a single by tomorrow.
 
RubbinsRacin said:
Doing nyquist outwork exacta box $10
Click to expand...

That's not a bad bet. They should be right next to each other for the entire race.

I'd guess with Nyquist on top you'd get back $250-300. If Outwork wins, something like $325-400. Nice return.
 
I think you can make a case for anyone be Trojan Nation, Mo Tom, My Man Sam, Oscar Nominated, Lani, Tom's Ready, Shagaf, Majesto and Danzing Candy for the exacta.

There are a lot of decent horses but no apparently really top ones. Nyquist could be, but even he doesn't look like a Breeders Cup champion.

Mor Spirit (Baffert) looked great a couple of months ago, but has regressed. Maybe he'll be back, but he's going to have a terrible trip.

I would like Brody's Cause if there was more speed, but he'll be sitting 16th-20th after half a mile. I don't think it will be fast enough for him to close that much.

What's tough about this year is almost anyone can come in 3rd or 4th. Usually, there are 2-4 defined tiers of talent. Tomorrow, we have Nyquist and then about 7-9 horses that can come in 2nd. There are probably 15 horses that can come in the trifecta or super.

If anyone is going to be watching all day, let me know, I think there's a good Pick 4 on Races 5-8.

Race 6 has the best horse of the day - Tepin.
 
So whats your exact bets RJ? Unfortunately I'm not going this year but I have this group of friends that thinks I know a horse god named Oracle
 
I'll put up more after I drink my Friday lunch bourbon.

I will likely bet this- $1 tri key-

Nyquist on top

Boxed underneath- Suddenbreakingnews/Gun Runner (may be replaced)/Exaggerator/Mohaymen/Outwork
 
Here are some bets, there will be more tomorrow:

Pick 4 - $54

9th Race : 1,4,8
10th Race: 5,9,10, 11 the 5 may be a really good long shot 15-1 morning line
11th Race: 3, 8, 12
12th -KY Derby: 2 (Suddenbreakingnews), 11 (Exaggerator), 13 (Nyquist)

Trifecra $20:

Nyquist on top

Boxed underneath- Suddenbreakingnews/Gun Runner/Exaggerator/Mohaymen/Outwork

$40 Win Nyquist

$114 so far
 
$10 Win bet Suddenbfreakingnews for fun

$0,50 Trifecta Key ($10 total) -Suddenbreakingnews over Nyquist/Exaggerator/Mohaymen/Outwork/Brody's Cause

$0.50 Tri Key Brody's Cause over (SBN/NY/EX/Mohay/Outwork)

I'll do exactas in the morning.
 
For those who will be watching all day from Churchill, here's an early Pick 4- ($42):

Race 5 - 1,2,3,4,5,9, 10
Race 6 - 1
Race 7 - 6.1,5,8
Race 8 - 2,8,10

Race 6, #1 is Tepin. She may be the best horse in training in North America. She will go off at 1/5 or 1/9 in a Grade 2.

Race 7 - #6 could be a 6-1 to 8-1 good bet.
 
I'm not sure how much I like exactas today. If Nyquist wins, it will take a longshot to make it pay.

I'd go with a $5 box of Nyquist/Exaggerator/Suddenbreakingnews

$3 boxes of Nyquist/Outwork Nyquist/Mohaymen

I might do $1 boxes of SBN/Outwork SBN/Mohaymen Ex/Out Ex/Mo

I'm not sure how much of this I'll do.
 
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