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NFL Year 2023. Kansas City Chiefs Win Super Bowl LVIII. Defeat 49ers in Overtime. 25-22.

PhDeac said:
The obvious answer is to draft Harrison #1. Give Fields what he needs to succeed. Then they have their own 1st and 4 picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th to shore up their OL and defense. Fields gets a lot of crap but the Bears have improved from the worst team in the league to 7-9. That's a good leap.
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trade #1... someone will give you a haul and you can still get a stud WR
 
The Bryce Young deal is cautionary tale. I don't think anyone will give up a haul like the Panthers did. And that trade wouldn't be nearly as good for the Bears if the Panthers weren't so bad this season.
 
PhDeac said:
The Bryce Young deal is cautionary tale. I don't think anyone will give up a haul like the Panthers did. And that trade wouldn't be nearly as good for the Bears if the Panthers weren't so bad this season.
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This is an absolutely horrible take. You could not be more wrong. No one in the NFL is concerned about this years draft because Bryce Young had a rough rookie year. And obviously the trade was better because it became this years number 1. But it would still have been great if it was the #9 or #12 this year.

If the bears trade #1 all the way back to #9 they’d get more than they got last year. No qiestion

No GM “learned” from the cautionary tale of Trey Lance or Mitch Trubisky.
 
I disagree. The Bears got the most they could get out of that trade. They got #9, a likely Pro Bowl WR, #1 pick, and what will likely be a 2025 high 2nd round pick. If the Panthers were merely decent, that trade wouldn't be as good. You say the team with the #9 pick would give up a haul for the #1 pick yet disagree that the #9 pick isn't nearly as good as the #1 pick.

Most franchise aren't Tepper's Panthers and most prospects aren't Harrison, Jr.. A GM must think twice before making a comparable trade that probably won't be as optimal as trading with the Panthers. Last year's draft had a few good QB prospects but no sure thing. Last year, the best non-QB was Will Anderson. This year it's Marvin Harrison, Jr. Would the Bears really give up a "sure thing" prospect like Harrison, Jr for what could be a #9 pick, decent starter, 2025 mid-1st, and a 2026 late 2nd?
 
PhDeac said:
I disagree. First of all, you contradict yourself. You say the team with the #9 pick would give up a haul for the #1 pick yet disagree that the #9 pick isn't nearly as good as the #1 pick. Second, the Bears got the most they could get out of that trade. They got #9, a likely Pro Bowl WR, #1 pick, and what will likely be a 2025 high 2nd round pick.

Most franchise aren't Tepper's Panthers. A GM has to think twice before making a comparable trade that won't end up as optimal. Last year's draft had a few good QB prospects but no sure thing. Last year, the best non-QB was Will Anderson. This year it's Marvin Harrison, Jr. Would the Bears really give up a "sure thing" prospect like Harrison, Jr for what could be a #9 pick, decent starter, 2025 mid-1st, and a 2026 late 2nd?
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no. But you would go to #9 for MORE Than you got this year...which is what you'd get. You would likely get 3 #1s and a starter. you don't make those trades counting on where in the draft the pick will be, that's a total crapshoot.

You say the team with the #9 pick would give up a haul for the #1 pick yet disagree that the #9 pick isn't nearly as good as the #1 pick
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i didn't remotely say that
 
The Trey Lance draft trade was three 1sts and a 3rd to jump from #12 to #3. In only two years, the value to move from #9 to #1 was significantly lower (two 1sts, a 2nd, and a good player).
 
PhDeac said:
The Trey Lance draft trade was three 1sts and a 3rd to jump from #12 to #3. In only two years, the value to move from #9 to #1 was significantly lower (two 1sts, a 2nd, and a good player).
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That's not significantly lower. It's essentially the same trade. The Panthers wanted to give the Bears another 1st round pick in 2026, but the Bears asked for DJ Moore instead, so they valued him equal to, or more than, another 1st round pick.
 
PhDeac said:
The Trey Lance draft trade was three 1sts and a 3rd to jump from #12 to #3. In only two years, the value to move from #9 to #1 was significantly lower (two 1sts, a 2nd, and a good player).
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Maybe because Bryce Young is tiny and has mediocre arm strength? Young was far from a sure fire franchise QB - hence why the Bears couldn’t get more for the #1 pick last year. Caleb Williams and Maye would have been taken over Young last year. The price will be higher in the 2024 draft if the Bears trade it.
 
uncaboref said:
That's not significantly lower. It's essentially the same trade. The Panthers wanted to give the Bears another 1st round pick in 2026, but the Bears asked for DJ Moore instead, so they valued him equal to, or more than, another 1st round pick.
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OK. So trading up from #9 to #1 in 2023 was "essentially the same trade" as trading up from #12 to #3 in 2021. That doesn't support the Bears getting more for #1 this year than last year.
 
See response above for why 2024 could very well bring a bigger draft haul if they trade down from #1 again........
 
I see that logic and it applies if Williams or Maye distinguishes themselves as elite prospects. But it seems like Williams and Maye aren't as highly regarded as they were a year ago.

This year's draft seems to have good second-tier QBs like Penix and Nix. A team like the Falcons (currently #9) may be content to see if one of those QBs drops to the 2nd or trade up to the late 1st rather than trade up to #1.
 
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You’re wrong Ph. Every talking head expects they could get more this year than last year.
They could screw that up but your premise is flat out incorrect. Especially the idea that Bryce Young’s season has ANY impact on what a GM does around this years #1
 
WindyCityDeac said:
You’re wrong Ph. Every talking head expects they could get more this year than last year.
They could screw that up but your premise is flat out incorrect. Especially the idea that Bryce Young’s season has ANY impact on what a GM does around this years #1
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I'm not shaking in my boots about what Bears talking heads are saying. My premise isn't centered around Bryce Young's season. My premise is about the risk of passing on a generational WR under the assumption that their trade partner will be as bad as the Panthers were this season.
 
PhDeac said:
I'm not shaking in my boots about what Bears talking heads are saying. My premise isn't centered around Bryce Young's season. My premise is about the risk of passing on a generational WR under the assumption that their trade partner will be as bad as the Panthers were this season.
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if you can get a bunch of assets you do it. this is a deep WR class. where next years trade partner pick is shouldn't play into it at all.
 
The team at #3 isn't going to give you more than the Panthers gave up to move from #9.
 
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