That is, at this point, Republican political strategy depends largely on frightening voters who are personally doing relatively well not just according to official statistics but also by their own accounts, by telling them that terrible things are happening to other people.
This is most obvious when it comes to the U.S. economy, which had a very good — indeed, almost miraculously good — 2023. Economic growth not only defied widespread predictions of an imminent recession but also hugely
exceeded expectations; inflation has
plunged and is more or less where the Federal Reserve wants it to be. And people are feeling it in their lives:
63 percent of surveyed Americans said that their financial situation is good or very good.
Yet out on the stump a few days ago, Nikki Haley
declared that “we’ve got an economy in shambles and inflation that’s out of control.” And it’s likely that the Republicans who heard her believed her.
According to a YouGov poll, almost 72 percent of Republicans said that our 3-2 economy — roughly 3 percent growth and 2 percent inflation — is getting worse, while only a little over 6 percent said that it’s getting better.
Again, this negative verdict doesn’t reflect personal experience. In December, YouGov asked Americans to
evaluate 2023 in general. Republicans said it was awful for the nation, with 76 percent saying the year was bad or terrible. Strange to say, however, 69 percent of Republicans — close to the same number — said that the year was OK, good or great for them personally.
Now, that last survey wasn’t specifically limited to the state of the economy and presumably also reflected things like perceptions about crime. But crime
declined significantly in 2023, which in a rational world would have added to the good economy by fostering a sense that things are improving.
But the world — especially MAGAworld — isn’t rational. And it’s a
longstanding observation that Americans tend to say that national crime is rising even when it’s falling and even when they concede that it’s falling where they live.