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Republicans for POTUS, 2016 Edition

I think Rand Paul's alliance with Cory Booker makes him interesting, and might get some attention from those on the left. I'm not sure I believe he can win, but if he gives others a scare, maybe that could help push the envelope on criminal justice reform.
 
I do find it a bit odd that Rand can get some traction beyond the normal libertarian 2-5% yet a true libertarian (and decent guy) like Gary Johnson got zero traction in 2012.
 
cville deac said:
Politics is interesting. The trouble in this country is the news coverage of campaigns is so superficial, and the campaign season lasts so friggin long. At this point, gimme the UK where they have multiple parties, and they declare they're going to have an election in a few months.
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Are you saying this isn't hard hitting coverage for true political nerds?

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Gotta be frustrating for moderate 'Pubs. Wouldn't be easy, but HRC is vulnerable and could be beat. Agree on the five best GOP probables, but none are a slam dunk and Daniels, Huntsman, and Kasich would all be better.

Palin won't run, but some combo of Cruz, Jindal, Huckabee, Santorum, Perry, Carson, and Trump will say enough stupid things to make the eventual nominee look bad. GOP needs that many wingnuts in the field because if Cruz were the only one he might actually win the nomination.
 
Wrangor said:
I am just personally really excited to see the Republican Primary season kick off. I don't fool myself into thinking that Pubs have an advantage in the GE, but the primary should be fascinating. A lot of strong personalities, and some really good candidates, unlike in some of the year's previous. I think Hillary is obviously the favorite to win (although I don't think the odds are as strong as some might make it out to be), but I Think Pubs will end up with a very good candidate. I won't vote for Jeb, but he is a solid candidate, Walker, Rubio, Rand and Christie all provide interesting strengths and weaknesses. Can't wait to see those five in particular in a debate setting. I like Carson as a person and as a success story, but can't see a scenario where he is anything be a side show. The rest of the bums don't hold much interest to me at all as they are just angling for more exposure/money when they inevitably lose. But I think a debate with those top 5 candidates would be a riot. All 5 are intelligent and well spoken....and there is a large gap of political philosophy in between those candidates, even within the Republican umbrella. I really see this election as a chance for the Pubs to define who they are by who they choose. If Walker is the selection we are in for more of the same old same old. But if any of the other 4 guys become the candidate you are looking at a real shift in political philosophy in a variety of areas.

I am a real political junkie when it comes to primary season. Democrats are going to be a complete bore this time around IMO. In 2008 I was in tune with the Democratic primary in much larger quantity than the Pubs, but this year it is the exact opposite. Democratic primary will just be Hillary talking points and money. There are literally no legitimate contenders outside of her.
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So you don't think the Republican primary will devolve into a conservative pissing match - an anti-tax anti-spend anti-immigration anti-science pro-gun biblethump devoid of solutions and effective discourse - like it always is?

I admire your optimism. I'm all out.
 
cville deac said:
I, OTOH, am the opposite of excited. We're a year and a half away from the goddamn GE, and they're already starting. And where exactly are these good candidates for either party? John Stewart had a good piece last night where he was ridiculing the coverage of Hillary getting a burrito bowl at Chipotle. That's the sort of tripe that the pundits cover all the time on cable news. Try watching 15 minutes of Morning Joe without walking away feeling more stupid. It's not like they discuss the finer points of Hillary's position on immigration reform and contrast that with Ted Cruz. And to make matters worse, I live in 1 of the 8-10 states where all the TV $$ will be spent over the next 18 months. Just give me a paper cut and pour lemon juice over it already and get it over with.
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I am fascinated with the electoral map and what the lean and swing states may or may not do. Is there really any chance VA will go back to red? If not, you may not get as many ads as you think.
 
I don't think attacks on Hillary are necessarily going to make her more sympathetic. She doesn't tend to come off sympathetically even when she tries (remember the soft pink dresses and homemade cookie recipes during the Gennifer Flowers episode? The Stand By Your Man comment? She usually comes across as cold and hard regardless.)

I have been interested in Kate MacKinnon's recent portrayals of her on Saturday Night Live as a purely power-hungry opportunist. I can't remember the last time they went after a Democrat with the same kind of gusto that they caricature Republicans with(see Palin, Sarah). I think they are hitting pretty close to the mark, and it has been really funny so far. She certainly gives them plenty of material to work with.
 
Republicans give better material.
 
DeacLaw05 said:
I don't think attacks on Hillary are necessarily going to make her more sympathetic. She doesn't tend to come off sympathetically even when she tries (remember the soft pink dresses and homemade cookie recipes during the Gennifer Flowers episode? The Stand By Your Man comment? She usually comes across as cold and hard regardless.)

I have been interested in Kate MacKinnon's recent portrayals of her on Saturday Night Live as a purely power-hungry opportunist. I can't remember the last time they went after a Democrat with the same kind of gusto that they caricature Republicans with(see Palin, Sarah). I think they are hitting pretty close to the mark, and it has been really funny so far. She certainly gives them plenty of material to work with.
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Before Monica, nobody thought HRC could be elected anywhere. She was seen as a sympathetic figure after that and was even portrayed as a victim during one of the NY Senate debates. Was left for dead in NH until she teared up in a diner. The voters who will decide the election are moderates and independents in swing states. They were horrified by the birthers. GOP doesn't get that most voters don't hate Obama and the Clintons the way they do.

SNL has never portrayed Bubba in a flattering way. They favored Obama over HRC, but the current depiction of HRC is hilarious and not far off how people view her. SNL helped define Palin and she got trashed. Only other major pol they helped define was Ford. It's been open season on everyone else and almost all were close to what people believed. It's not funny if it's not credible or believable.
 
DeacWatcher said:
I am fascinated with the electoral map and what the lean and swing states may or may not do. Is there really any chance VA will go back to red? If not, you may not get as many ads as you think.
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Oh yeah, VA is in play. We have more Pubs in the House than Dems, and the General Assembly is controlled by Pubs. I'd go so far as to say the state is a redder shade of purple than blue. The reason the Gov, LG and AG are Dems is the Pubs ran batshite crazy Gov & Lt Gov candidates who lost by a few points. Had they run Bill Bolling and a generic running mate, they'd have beaten McAuliffe by 10 points. The main reason VA has become purple is the huge growth in NoVa. And the Tidewater area, which has a lot of military bases, has become a bit bluer. And I think the reason Obama won here twice, in addition to the changing demographics I mentioned, was that there was a larger than usual African American turnout for both of those GEs. The tea baggers and Christian Right are more powerful in the Pub party here than in most states, occasionally to the detriment of the party.

If nothing big happens in the next year or so to sway things 1 way or the other, I'd say Hillary is a toss-up against a Walker, Paul, Bush and maybe Rubio. And I think a lot will hinge on the level of enthusiasm on both sides. If it's say Bush, and the tea baggers and Christian Right are furious, that will help her. Conversely, if it's Bush, and a lot of moderate Dems can't tell the difference between him and her, they could stay home. I think our turnout for each side will be bigger if the Pubs go with a firebrand.
 
Yeah. That's why The Rock Obama and Key & Peele's Luther the Anger Translator work better than most of the other stuff SNL has done on Obama.
 
Don't think the Obamas love the Clintons, but they could definitely help in VA by campaigning in NOVA and Tidewater. VA definitely blew it by going with the wingnut ticket. McAuliffe certainly helps HRC.
 
The Obamas and Clintons need each other for the next 10 years at the most.
 
Kasich reportedly forming a PAC to fund a possible run. Think he'd be a welcome addition. Really bad news for Walker. Speaking of SNL, they'd have a field day with Walker.
 
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