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Republicans for POTUS, 2016 Edition

All a presidential candidate has to do is be sexist and "the majority of Americans will be cheering." Pretty solid condemnation of our population.

One of many.

barack-obama-300.jpg
 
Strange, but interesting story here. Also not too surprising:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-foreign-sounding-names-cost-him-delegates/

"Illinois Republicans hold a convoluted “loophole” primary: The statewide primary winner earns 15 delegates, but the state’s other 54 delegates are elected directly on the ballot, with three at stake in each of the state’s 18 congressional districts. Each campaign files slates of relatively unknown supporters to run for delegate slots, and each would-be delegate’s presidential preference is listed beside his or her name. As a result, the top presidential candidate in each congressional district usually claims all three of the district’s delegates.

Except on Tuesday, a handful of congressional districts split their delegates in ways that cast doubt on voters’ racial motivations. Did voters have genuine personal preferences for the mostly anonymous individuals running for these slots, or was it a case of “what’s in a name?”

A FiveThirtyEight analysis of the dozen highest vote differentials within district-level Trump slates reveals a startling pattern: In all 12 cases, the highest vote-getting candidate had a common, Anglo-sounding name. But a majority of the trailing candidates had first or last names most commonly associated with Asian, Hispanic or African-American heritages. Of the 54 Trump delegate candidates in the state, two of the three worst-trailing candidates were the only two Trump candidates with Middle Eastern-sounding names."

"Of the seven Trump delegate candidates with minority or foreign-sounding names, all seven were among the dozen worst-trailing Trump candidates in the state: Sadiq, Fakroddin, Tolbert, Alonso, Uribe, Sandra Yeh and Rolando Arellano. The 47 Trump delegate candidates with Anglo-sounding names tended to garner far more votes."


I was thinking this might be a good plot for the next season of House of Cards, with Dunbar being the 3rd party candidate.
 
Hillary can have a short fuse when debating, so I'm interested to see how she responds to someone whose main goal will be to attack her personally to try to get her blow up.

My guess is that she has debate prep hurling vile insults at her already.

This is interesting. I wonder what the implications would be for the midterm elections? I would think that doing this almost assure the Democrats would end up with control of the house and senate in 2018. And it would piss off so many people.

No chance the GOP loses the House. None. In this scenario, the House gets more conservative, not less. Every SOB in there is primaried from those gerrymandered districts.
 
This is interesting. I wonder what the implications would be for the midterm elections? I would think that doing this almost assure the Democrats would end up with control of the house and senate in 2018. And it would piss off so many people.

I don't see how Hillary doesn't get to 270 with two Republican opponents. Dem voter turnout would probably be good because this plan would be out in the open.
 
I was thinking this might be a good plot for the next season of House of Cards, with Dunbar being the 3rd party candidate.

Just finished up the most recent season last night. The ending was fantastic - really thought this season was strong. This reminds me to go read the thread on the Pit about it now.
 
I don't see how Hillary doesn't get to 270 with two Republican opponents. Dem voter turnout would probably be good because this plan would be out in the open.

The outcome is unlikely but if a Romney/Kasich ticket flips Ohio from Blue to 3rd Party and Michigan or Pennsylvania flips to either Trump or Romney, it's plausible, if not probable.
 
Nikki Haley's flipped from Little Marco to Cruz. Will eventually flip to Kasich. Trump will make her put the confederate flag back up before she becomes his VP.
 
Thought this was an interesting idea, not sure if posted:

GOP Congress Gets to Handpick President

Don't see how that would work with the electoral college system. Unless the 3rd party candidate gets almost all of the Republican votes in a state or virtually none of them, it seems that the Dem would end up winning every single state. Even if you can pilfer 10% of the Dem candidate's votes, anything close to a 50/50 split between Trump and the 3rd party candidate, and the Dems win that state 40/30/30 (or something in that ball park). In reality, most states would probably be more like 55/30/15.
 
Don't see how that would work with the electoral college system. Unless the 3rd party candidate gets almost all of the Republican votes in a state or virtually none of them, it seems that the Dem would end up winning every single state. Even if you can pilfer 10% of the Dem candidate's votes, anything close to a 50/50 split between Trump and the 3rd party candidate, and the Dems win that state 40/30/30 (or something in that ball park). In reality, most states would probably be more like 55/30/15.

I think the idea is that a Mitt/Kasich ticket could take Utah/Ohio and taking those two states away from an otherwise Trump victory would be enough.
 
Trump would light up a 3rd party Mitt like a YUGE fireworks show.
 
I think the idea is that a Mitt/Kasich ticket could take Utah/Ohio and taking those two states away from an otherwise Trump victory would be enough.

Be enough for what? They would basically give a bunch of the other states to the Dems. Let's take a state that went 60/40 for the Pubs in the 2012. Assuming the Dems get the same 40% of the state in 2016, one of the other 2 candidates would have to get at least 67% of the non Dem vote just to get to 40% of the state. So if Trump and the "3rd party" candidate end up with a 40/60 split, then the Dems just won a state that they normally get crushed in 40/36/24. In any state that the non-Dem vote gets split 50/50, the Dems would win the state with just 34% of the vote.
 
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Thought this was an interesting idea, not sure if posted:

GOP Congress Gets to Handpick President

Not happening in a Hillary/Trump/Mittens 3 way. Could well have happened in a Trump/Sanders/Bloomberg 3 way. With the 2nd scenario, it would have been unlikely any of the 3 would have gotten to 270. But in the 1st scenario, all Mittens or some other Pubbot would do is siphon some of Trump's support away, and Hillary gets 400+ EVs - even if she's only getting 40-45% of the popular vote.

But with all this race stuff, I did have a thought as to Trump's veep. What is Donald Sterling doing these days?
 
This may be a dumb question, but I assume the "3rd party" candidate could strategically only be on the ticket in hand picked states? Like maybe just UT and OH?
 
Modern televised debates are far removed from the Lincoln/Douglas days where each person had a long amount (an hour) of time on each issue. Now, it's basically cutting a WWE promo. It's more about the 10 second soundbite than a series of proofs that lead to a logical conclusion. Trump doesn't have to call Hillary a bitch, he just has to subtly get under her skin enough to make her look like one. She's pretty unflappable most of the time, but it'll be interesting to see.
 
Also, if the GOPe tries to play spoiler, then this will officially be the wackiest election in a long time
 
One last thing on this topic. As for OH, it looks like Obama won it in 2012 50/48. Let's just say that the Dems only end up with 42% of Ohio in 2016. That means that a non-Trump ticket with Kasich on it needs to get at least 72% of the non-Dems votes to get to 42% of the state. The problem is 35% of the state went to Trump in the primary, and you have to assume all of those folks are going to stick with him. If the non-Dem vote is split 65/35, the Dems end up winning 42/38/20. So even a state like Ohio is far from a slam-dunk in the 3rd party scenario.

Edit - on a 65/35 non-Dem split - the Dems would have to get 39% or less of the state in order to lose.
 
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Isn't the assumption behind the HuffPost 3rd party idea that Republican establishment would rather see Hillary than Trump? The 3rd party candidate changes the odds from 50% Hillary, 50% Trump to 80% Hillary, 20% GOP House pick, 0% Trump, 0% GOP 3rd party candidate (obviously making up the numbers here). If they'd rather see Hillary than Trump, then it makes sense even if it's a small chance.
 
What Now, Marco Rubio?

Reporters peppered him with questions: Would he accept the vice presidential nomination, presumably under one of his primary rivals? Would he run for governor of Florida in 2018? Might he make a last-minute bid to hold on to his Senate seat?

Rubio’s response: None of the above.

“I'm not going to be vice president. I'm not running for governor of Florida. I'm going to finish out my term in the Senate over the next 10 months. We're going to work really hard here, and we have some things we want to achieve,” Rubio said, according to Roll Call. “And then I'll be a private citizen in January.”
 
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