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Stand back, there's a hurricane coming: vs. Miami tonight

From the graphs it looks like Wake was still around a 93% favorite to win after Miami scored to make it 83-77 last night.

Against Clemson, as Doofus mentioned, Wake was a 97% favorite to beat Clemson up 64-51 with 7:01 left.
 
surprised it was that high with so much time left. iirc wake hit 99% win with like under a minute left against UVA.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
You're lying. The fact that Miami did get it to 6 and as you admit their press is very effective, makes it even more worrisome when they got that close. Based on the percentages, it would've been much easier for us to have found a way to lose last night at that point in the game as it was against Clemson. It's okay, admitting you were concerned we could blow it, doesn't mean you're any less of an man.
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I'm not. I expected this game to be similar to Clemson. Our lead in the second half was much bigger and Miami is a worse team so I was confident we would withstand whatever run they made and then push it back out to 8-10 and hold on for the W. we responded to the run even better than I thought we would.

Also the amount of time left when they cut it to 6 actually made me more confident. It's tough to make the run they did, especially when pressing, and then maintain that energy and momentum for the rest of the game.

I didn't think Miami had it in them to close out the remaining six points and then hold on for 4 minutes.

We never looked panicked to me so I had no reason to panic. I'm much higher on this team than most so I'm sure that had something to do with it.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Right, but we aren't "more likely" to blow a lead because we have done it twice in the past two years. They are independent events.
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That's not necessarily true. There could be a factor not captured in the models that makes our team more likely to blow a lead.

I'm not necessarily arguing that, I don't think there is enough data to suggest it, but it's not a given that they are independent events.
 
ChrisL68 said:
How could you not be worried? since the beginning of last year we had blown as many conference games where we had a 99+% chance of winning as we had actually won.

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Because I don't think what last year's team did is particularly relevant to this year's team. Last year's team was not a top 100 team. This year's team is a top 40 team.

I said after the Clemson game that when we played teams slightly worse than Clemson (I specifically mentioned Miami) our second half lead would be bigger and their second half run would be smaller.
 
siff said:
While dumb, I'm guessing that there were Alabama fans who wanted to fire Saban after last Monday's game, too. Fans are gonna be fanatical.
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I was at the Fiesta Bowl this year and there was a guy sitting behind me pitching a fit and whining like a little bitch that OSU needs to fire Urban Meyer. His record is 61-6. So, yes . . .
 
I was worried. And the Clemson game, UVA game, and last night are most definitely connected. Anyone who doesn't think so has never stepped up to shoot a 1-1 with 5 seconds on the clock and your team is down 1 point. Nerves and psyche matter a great deal when closing out a game.


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Yeah I was super worried. Actually beyond worried and straight to resigned that we were going to somehow blow it. Hopefully the players don't have a fragile a psyche as I do.
 
It was a two possession game with plenty of time. Anybody who says they weren't worried is lying.
 
PhDeac said:
It was a two possession game with plenty of time. Anybody who says they weren't worried is lying.
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Not RChildress107, he's ice cold, he knew how it would play out before it happened. He may even be more all knowing than you Ph, he's after your belt.
 
It was a two possession game with plenty of time. Anybody who says they weren't worried is lying.
 
Heretofore unobserved fact: Former Wake Forest recruit Rodney Miller who opted for Miami only got 1 minute of PT last night in a game in which Miami's big men were in foul trouble.

Possibly observed fact: John Collins, from Miami, and recruited by Miami, but chose Wake Forest, dominated.
 
Wrangor said:
I was worried. And the Clemson game, UVA game, and last night are most definitely connected. Anyone who doesn't think so has never stepped up to shoot a 1-1 with 5 seconds on the clock and your team is down 1 point. Nerves and psyche matter a great deal when closing out a game.


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I agree they are connected. That's why I wasn't worried.
 
PhDeac said:
It was a two possession game with plenty of time. Anybody who says they weren't worried is lying.
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I saw a lot of folks leaving last night close to the end while the game was still in doubt. Those folks must have known more than me because I was was worried.
 
I was worried and I will be every time Wake is in the process of losing a big lead...I have been a Wake fan too long to be anything but worried.
 
RChildress107 said:
I was not worried. Making a run to come back takes a huge amount of effort. The press was effective because Miami is really good at it rather than because we were panicking.
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The press was effective because we made some stupid soft passes. Love those soft lobs over the top, nothing can go wrong there. While Crawford seems to go tentative on his passes during the press, I believe Miami started pressing when he was out of the game. Not sure what our backcourt was at that time but I think it's pretty clear that with Childress, MW and Crawford on the floor we could manage their press much better. I think Crawford is important as he's really our one player that can make them pay by taking it to rim when we beat the press.

Regarding percentages, they can't really account for a specific team's characteristics. I'd guess they look at all of CBB and maybe some factors of a team's rankings and how often teams blow 15 points leads. There is just not enough data points to do team specific percentages.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I can't say for sure, but I'm guessing it just takes into account the offense and defense efficiencies. Not sure if it compares it to historical data or anything. Let me try to see if I can find an explanation of the chart he uses.
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The odds of Wake blowing a 10 point lead are much higher than UVA, if talent equal, simply because there will be more possessions in Wake game. Also a highly volatile team, who gets tons of steals and hits tons of 3s with lots of offensive turnovers and defensives lapses, is much more likely to blow a lead than a low volatile team.

If all of that, plus more goes into the winning percentage, you are correct, but I suspect there may be variables not taken into effect in that percentage.
 
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