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Stand back, there's a hurricane coming: vs. Miami tonight

liveanddiedeac said:
I think we should be doing that more than we do, which is hardly ever, does that mean I think we should be top 15 team? I mean it's like clock work, against ACC teams especiallly, if we get big leads we let the other team back in it to the point they have a shot to win. Heck, if we had let Miami get within 10 that would've cut 13-14 points off our lead which is enough, but they 17-18 points off our lead in a fairly small time frame. I know I'm nit-picking, last night was really good and I'm proud of the guys. I'd just be nice to see us get up by 20+ and the closest the other teams gets is 10 or 12, when it got down to 6, we were all sweating bullets.
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The closest that Miami got from a win expectancy standpoint in the second half was approximately 13%.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
I think we should be doing that more than we do, which is hardly ever, does that mean I think we should be top 15 team? I mean it's like clock work, against ACC teams especiallly, if we get big leads we let the other team back in it to the point they have a shot to win. Heck, if we had let Miami get within 10 that would've cut 13-14 points off our lead which is enough, but they 17-18 points off our lead in a fairly small time frame. I know I'm nit-picking, last night was really good and I'm proud of the guys. I'd just be nice to see us get up by 20+ and the closest the other teams gets is 10 or 12, when it got down to 6, we were all sweating bullets.
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We are a top 40 team. If we "did more" we would be a better team.

We've blown two big second half leads to top 40 teams this season. We are 1-1 in those games. The fact that you realize you are nitpicking puts you way ahead of others on this board.
 
siff said:
A number of posters here get upset at times with substitution patterns, etc..., but I don't think anyone is ready to "abandon" Danny. Very few people, at least. I'll spin it positively: with [Redacted], we knew it could never work and were resigned to ignominy. With Danny, we see potential and some become frustrated when seemingly obvious problems aren't addressed. A win in Raleigh this weekend and everything is lollipops and unicorns again. ;)
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Several people have stated definitively that Manning is not the answer and a few have said they would be OK with us moving on immediately.
 
RChildress107 said:
Several people have stated definitively that Manning is not the answer and a few have said they would be OK with us moving on immediately.
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While dumb, I'm guessing that there were Alabama fans who wanted to fire Saban after last Monday's game, too. Fans are gonna be fanatical.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
The closest that Miami got from a win expectancy standpoint in the second half was approximately 13%.
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You do realize I think at one point in the Clemson game their win expectancy percentage was about 1 percent, it was posted on this board I think.
 
The NCAA is not the NBA where teams always make runs on 20 point leads. They cut the 20+ lead to 9, then I think we extended back to 18 then they cut it to 6. The issues were that I think Miami was 10-12 at some point, we struggled initially against the press and while the officiating was horrible we were doing some unnecessary fouling on the perimeter with a big lead.

We still only have 2 ACC wins and have just managed to scrape ourselves off the bottom of the conference. Win at State and we have something to really build on.
 
RChildress107 said:
We are a top 40 team. If we "did more" we would be a better team.

We've blown two big second half leads to top 40 teams this season. We are 1-1 in those games. The fact that you realize you are nitpicking puts you way ahead of others on this board.
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Realizing and admitting your faults is the first step they say.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
You do realize I think at one point in the Clemson game their win expectancy percentage was about 1 percent, it was posted on this board I think.
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Yes I realize that. Each game is an independent function. Just because we blew a 97% lead in a game two weeks ago doesn't mean that the 13% lead is anything more expected than 13% to happen.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Yes I realize that. Each game is an independent function. Just because we blew a 97% lead in a game two weeks ago doesn't mean that the 13% lead is anything more expected than 13% to happen.
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It got too close for comfort, all of us were pretty worried at that point, whether we admit it or not.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Yes I realize that. Each game is an independent function. Just because we blew a 97% lead in a game two weeks ago doesn't mean that the 13% lead is anything more expected than 13% to happen.
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Does win expectancy include teams and their stats or is it context neutral?
 
RChildress107 said:
I was not worried. Making a run to come back takes a huge amount of effort. The press was effective because Miami is really good at it rather than because we were panicking.
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You're lying. The fact that Miami did get it to 6 and as you admit their press is very effective, makes it even more worrisome when they got that close. Based on the percentages, it would've been much easier for us to have found a way to lose last night at that point in the game as it was against Clemson. It's okay, admitting you were concerned we could blow it, doesn't mean you're any less of an man.
 
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How could you not be worried? since the beginning of last year we had blown as many conference games where we had a 99+% chance of winning as we had actually won.

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bernbp5 said:
Does win expectancy include teams and their stats or is it context neutral?
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I can't say for sure, but I'm guessing it just takes into account the offense and defense efficiencies. Not sure if it compares it to historical data or anything. Let me try to see if I can find an explanation of the chart he uses.
 
ChrisL68 said:
How could you not be worried? since the beginning of last year we had blown as many conference games where we had a 99+% chance of winning as we had actually won.

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I mean 99% is 99%. The odds of us blowing two of them are really low. Just because we have blown two doesn't make a third more likely. It's still 1% or less.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I mean 99% is 99%. The odds of us blowing two of them are really low. Just because we have blown two doesn't make a third more likely. It's still 1% or less.
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No. The odds of a team blowing two of them are really low. Those odds aren't specifically calculated for Wake.
 
PhDeac said:
No. The odds of a team blowing two of them are really low. Those odds aren't specifically calculated for Wake.
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Right, but we aren't "more likely" to blow a lead because we have done it twice in the past two years. They are independent events.
 
wake had a 99% win expectancy against UVA last year, no way it was that high for clemson
 
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