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Stay John Collins!

Pilchard said:
Exactly. If money is the only or the primary motivation (and it is for most in JC's situation), there is no debate, JC goes, even with the possibility of climbing up the draft board next year. There may be other factors at play (he is happy at WF; getting a degree or close enough to finish off the remaining credits during a future summer; not feeling ready for the NBA grind as from a basketball standpoint it's not super glamorous see summary below).

Here are the college players who left early and were drafted between 18 and 30 in the 2016 draft (where JC is projected), and what their 2016-7 season has been like:

#18 Henry Ellenson (Marquette) - averaging 4 minutes a game and 1.5 ppg in 14 games with the Pistons: has spent the majority of the season with the Grand Rapids Drive in the D-League
#19 Malik Beasley (FSU) - averaging less than 5 minutes a game and less than 3 ppg in 19 games with the Denver Nuggets; has spent most of the season with the Sioux Falls Sky Force in the D League
#21 DeAndre Bembry (St. Joe's) - averaging less than 10 minutes a game and less than 3 ppg with Atlanta Hawks in 31 games; has spent about half of his time in the D-League
#22 Malachi Richardson (Cuse) - averaging less than 10 minutes a game and less than 4 ppg with the Sacramento Kings in 22 games; has spent much of the season in the D-League with the Reno Bighorns
#27 Pascal Siakam (NM State)- averaging 16 minutes and 4 ppg for the Raptors in 52 games; has spent parts of the season with the Raptors D League team Raptors 905 (yes, that's the team's name)
#28 Skal Labissiere (KY) - averaging 13 minutes a game and 7 ppg for the Sacramento Kings; has spent most of the season with the Reno Bighorns in the D League
#29 Dejounte Murray (Washington) - averaging 8 minutes a game and 3 ppg in 37 games with the Spurs; has spent about half the season with Austin Spurs in the D League
#30 Damian Jones (Vandy) - averaging 7 minutes a game and less than 2 ppg in 9 games with Warriors; has spent most of the season with the Santa Cruz Warriors in the D League.

I can see thinking that playing on a high- profile program might be the more attractive alternative than suiting up for the Sioux Falls Sky Force or the Reno Bighorns as EVERY COLLEGE early entrant taken from #18 on has this past season. JC may not feel like spending his Winter on the Grand Rapids Drive. Not exactly the image that comes to mind for those that claim that going pro is an automatic.
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Good post. It goes back to what I posted a few days ago. Collins will get more TV exposure coming back to Wake than going to the NBA in all but a few situations.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
the most damning thing boeheim said wasn't 50%, it was 3 years. we're going back 7 and 8 years. on a long enough timeline 100% of picks are out of the league. 1st round picks have a very cheap 4th year option that is definitely picked up more than 50% of the time.
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I didn't go into detail, but a lot of these guys didn't ever get a 2nd contract in the NBA and either went back to Europe, or found greener pastures in places like UAE, Israel, Turkey, VEN and even IRAN!

Point being that it is much harder to stick in the NBA when selected outside the lottery and there's no point in using the last 3 drafts if we don't know whether they will get a veteran deal yet.

But John is more than welcome to leave now, get drafted 22nd and maybe get a veteran deal after 3 years to be a reserve or rising talent learning the nuances of the NBA game averaging 7 pts and 6 rebs per game for an up and coming team.

Not saying Boeheim is right, but without being a PG, SG or versatile wing forward, it seems to be much harder to stick if you are selected outside the lottery, and certainly if selected 20-30.

Sidebar: the only NBA player drafted between 2009 and 2011 outside the Top 19 to make an All-Star game is Jimmy Butler, selected 30th by the Bulls in 2011.
 
RJKarl said:
JC's Wake season is better than any of the ones Pilch listed had in college.
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OK, how about Denzel Valentine taken #14. How did his 2015-6 season compare to JC's:

- AP National POY
- NABC - National POY
- USA Today National POY
- NBC Sports National POY
- SI National POY
- Basketball Times National POY
- Naismith National Runner-up POY
- Big 10 POY

He was taken #14 (higher than JC is projected). Let's look at his NBA season: averaging 15 minutes a game; less than 5 ppg in 45 games with the Chicago Bulls, and yes... "has received multiple assignments to the Windy City Bulls", the Bulls' D-League affiliate. Ask Denzel if he prefers playing for the Windy City Bulls or being the Big Dog in the Big 10.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
1st round picks have a very cheap 4th year option that is definitely picked up more than 50% of the time.
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Where's the data on that claim regarding picks 20-30? I doubt that happens if they've been waived.
 
You can always find an anecdote. Valentine didn't have any eligibility left and was a fully complete player by the time he got drafted. He was also picked by a team that has an All-Star and a HOFer at the two position he plays. It's not his fault the team that drafted him shouldn't have.
 
Man I hope JC doesn't leave and get drafted 20th through 22nd, as there are a lot of picks in that range from 2008-2012 to do very little to nothing in a short NBA stint. There are some notable exceptions like Kenneth Farried, Ryan Anderson, Darren Collison and Jared Sullinger, but seems like a lot more players stick when they are selected 26th through 30th, probably because they are usually established perennial playoff teams who bring the player along slowly.

ETA: I think JC will get very good advice on his draft status and whether he can make it into the lottery this year. Think it may be tough with such a guard-heavy draft and the love for Justin Jackson and Terrance Ferguson in the 12-14 range, but looking at the Patterson and Marcus Morris examples, 14 might be the sweet spot for JC if he can get his stock to rise in the camps.
 
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An interesting scenario is one where JC gets feedback that he needs to develop a 3 for the NBA and he decides to come back a year and work on it in college.
 
Pilchard said:
OK, how about Denzel Valentine taken #14. How did his 2015-6 season compare to JC's:

- AP National POY
- NABC - National POY
- USA Today National POY
- NBC Sports National POY
- SI National POY
- Basketball Times National POY
- Naismith National Runner-up POY
- Big 10 POY

He was taken #14 (higher than JC is projected). Let's look at his NBA season: averaging 15 minutes a game; less than 5 ppg in 45 games with the Chicago Bulls, and yes... "has received multiple assignments to the Windy City Bulls", the Bulls' D-League affiliate. Ask Denzel if he prefers playing for the Windy City Bulls or being the Big Dog in the Big 10.
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RJ's right as the #14 pick other than Valentine has yielded much more success than what Denzel has achieved thus far: Patterson, Morris, John Henson, Shabazz Muhammad.
 
I suspect Collin's would spend a good part of next year in the D-League developing more of an outside game.
 
ChrisL68 said:
I suspect Collin's would spend a good part of next year in the D-League developing more of an outside game.
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And defense. The question is would he rather do that in the D-League on a rookie deal or in the ACC under Manning on national TV.
 
I LOVE JC and hope that he will follow his "heart" and our collective hearts! I honestly believe one more year at Wake and he is definitely lottery, and more importantly, NBA ready.

Does this swing things one way or the other:

Texas A&M’s Robert Williams is the first projected NBA draft lottery pick to return to school
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
An interesting scenario is one where JC gets feedback that he needs to develop a 3 for the NBA and he decides to come back a year and work on it in college.
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And, given Wake's luck, he would shoot 20% from 3 and be generally ineffective and we would suck.

But I think he is going to come back and get stronger and quicker, improve his defense, improve his shot out to 16-19 feet, dominate the ACC and get drafted #8 next year. And then go on to a long and storied NBA career...
 
It moves Collins one spot closer to the lottery.
 
I want him to return, obviously. With that admitted, I do think that he needs to develop both an outside shot (even a 3-point shot) and the ability to handle the ball well enough to drive to the basket against NBA competition.

Watching a clip of TD recently I was reminded of how well he could handle the ball. I don't think JC is close to that and probably will never be as good as Tim with the ball, but I think that part of his game needs to improve.

The argument raised earlier about increasing his name recognition for the purpose of gaining endorsement deals is a strong argument for staying. He could become one of the biggest "names" in the college game next season.
 
PhDeac said:
And defense. The question is would he rather do that in the D-League on a rookie deal or in the ACC under Manning on national TV.
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This is the most compelling argument to stay - Manning and exposure.
 
MichDeac25 said:
Oh so you're saying he's definitely higher than a #18 pick then?
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In a normal year, JC would be a lock lottery pick after the year he had. This year is stacked and deep. I think he should be #18 or higher, but it will be close.
 
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RJKarl said:
In a normal year, JC would be a lock lottery pick after the year he had. This year is stacked and deep. I think he should be #18 or higher, but it will be close.
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No surprise that Tatum goes into the draft and he is 6'8, 205 pounds. Collins is the same age, 19 and 6'10 and 235 pounds. Tatum plays the 2-3 & Collins plays the 4-5. With the money to be made and his upside, who can blame Collins for going.
 
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