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Stay John Collins!

WFcatamount22 said:
I'm pretty sure it is close to 50% of late 1st round early 2nd round picks are out of the league in 3 years. Boeheim is still an ass though.
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I just looked at the 2013 draft. of the 11 players taken 20-30, 9 are in the NBA today, 3½ years later. Namanja Nedovic, taken #30, played briefly in the NBA, NBDL and is now playing in Europe. #28 Livio Jean-Charles never played in the NBA and is currently in the NBDL.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
here's data from 1989-2008 nba drafts. http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

it shows an overall 20% bust or DNP percentage for picks 20-30.
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I doubt you were able to do that math so quickly as he breaks it into multiple categories. But here is an interesting stat from his study: "Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats."
 
MichDeac25 said:
I doubt you were able to do that math so quickly as he breaks it into multiple categories. But here is an interesting stat from his study: "Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats."
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huh? i added the percentages of bust and DNP for picks 20-30 and found what total percentage they were of all the players in those picks. it was not calculus. it was 20%.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
here's data from 1989-2008 nba drafts. http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

it shows an overall 20% bust or DNP percentage for picks 20-30.
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Deep bench players are probably waived and resigned so I would include those guys as being out of the league. I looked at a couple of years and it's amazing how many players were out by the end of Year 2.....playing in the D league and signing with various teams off and on the rest of their career. If you include that number, then it's 54%.
 
there are 15 roster spots getting paid NBA salaries, rotations on a given team are probably 8-10 deep. that leaves 150-200 guys every year making NBA money on the deep bench.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
there are 15 roster spots getting paid NBA salaries, rotations on a given team are probably 8-10 deep. that leaves 150-200 guys every year making NBA money on the deep bench.
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When you look at those spots in the draft....pick any year...a lot of them are waived by their drafted team or are assigned to D-league teams pretty quickly. They'll come up and down from the D-league or are waived, play in a D-league team, and then sign with someone else short term. I don't know what they get for those contracts.

Take the 2010 draft. I only see 4 players who stuck out of 11. What do you see?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_draft
 
The arguments made here are starting with the assumption that basketball is the only factor.
 
pourdeac said:
When you look at those spots in the draft....pick any year...a lot of them are waived by their drafted team or are assigned to D-league teams pretty quickly. They'll come up and down from the D-league or are waived, play in a D-league team, and then sign with someone else short term. I don't know what they get for those contracts.

Take the 2010 draft. I only see 4 players who stuck out of 11. What do you see?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_draft
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well now we're going back 7 years. also lots of people on assignment in the DLeague are still taking up a roster spot and getting paid NBA money.

the only comprehensive data i've seen, not parsing a year here or there is the site i linked. n=1 aren't very helpful, especially in drafts in the window beyond what boeheim was referencing. i don't think he has some research that's not on the entirety of the internet that shows a 50% bust rate for picks in the 20s.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
well now we're going back 7 years. also lots of people on assignment in the DLeague are still taking up a roster spot and getting paid NBA money.

the only comprehensive data i've seen, not parsing a year here or there is the site i linked. n=1 aren't very helpful, especially in drafts in the window beyond what boeheim was referencing. i don't think he has some research that's not on the entirety of the internet that shows a 50% bust rate for picks in the 20s.
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The site you linked only goes up to 2008. Secondly, it does not define "bust" as you are defining it. DNP is a pretty significant stat. It's guys who never played in the NBA even a minute, despite being drafted. It also does not state how it accounts for guys from a draft who were in the league at one point and are now out of the league. There are a lot of question marks from the site you linked, although it is helpful. And you're still ignoring the site's conclusion based on its own internal calculations that less than half of guys picked 21-30 ever develop into "deep role players" as that term is defined by the site.

And you really don't believe that Boeheim has more data than what you were able to pull from a 2-minute google search?
 
yes, boeheim is an asshole just throwing out a number because his player is leaving early. in fact, he used the same 50% number 3 years ago in reference to the entire 1st round, not the last 10 picks. he referenced pick 15 "being nothing" with Tyler Ennis because that's where he was mocked. he's referencing 20-30 now with lydon because that's where he's mocked.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
well now we're going back 7 years. also lots of people on assignment in the DLeague are still taking up a roster spot and getting paid NBA money.

the only comprehensive data i've seen, not parsing a year here or there is the site i linked. n=1 aren't very helpful, especially in drafts in the window beyond what boeheim was referencing. i don't think he has some research that's not on the entirety of the internet that shows a 50% bust rate for picks in the 20s.
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Sure, but they're going down very quickly...ie within 3 years. Go check out other years....the same thing happens. And those are the players being called "deep bench"...ie where their points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game = <10. In 2010, only 3 of players 20-30 are above 9.9 using the metrics in the article you linked to. So I think 54% is pretty accurate.
 
pourdeac said:
Sure, but they're going down very quickly...ie within 3 years. Go check out other years....the same thing happens. And those are the players being called "deep bench"...ie where their points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game = <10. In 2010, only 3 of players 20-30 are above 9.9 using the metrics in the article you linked to. So I think 54% is pretty accurate.
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huh, you're likely to go down quickly on assignment because you're new to the league.
 
for example, ish smith was signed by the rockets after being undrafted. he quickly went down to the d-league, but he still had a roster spot, was still getting an nba paycheck, was still an NBA player.

lots of 1st and 2nd year players spend time on d-league assignment while occupying a roster spot and earning an nba paycheck.
 
Just went through the 2009 and 2010 drafts to see what the percentage of "wash outs" is and whether it is as high as Boeheim says.

In 2009, 10 of 16 players drafted 15-30 are still in the NBA, but 7 are guards and the only forwards worth a damn are our own JJ, O. Casspi and Taj Gibson.

In 2010, a weaker draft than '09, only 8 of 16 players are still in the NBA, but it would be 9 if Larry Sanders didn't flake out. In this instance, 4 are guards and the others forwards, Babbitt, Seraphin, Pondexter, who just blew out his knee and Trevor Booker, a 4 year player from Clemson.

Interestingly, Patrick Patterson (6' 9", 235 lbs) from U of Ky might be the most interesting "comp" for John Collins as he came back for a 3rd year, in which his numbers slumped due to the presence of Wall & Cousins, but still managed to sneak into the lottery at 14, and is now a fairly productive reserve PF averaging 8 ppg and 5 rpg over his career.

Obviously, JC wouldn't have to worry so much about his production getting hindered by the presence of All-American candidates (other than Crawford perhaps), but we know he is the one who butters Wake's basketball toast, so to speak.
 
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Why the Deac Not said:
Just went through the 2009 and 2010 drafts to see what the percentage of "wash outs" is and whether it is as high as Boeheim says.

In 2009, 10 of 16 players drafted 15-30 are still in the NBA, but 7 are guards and the only forwards worth a damn are our own JJ, O. Casspi and Taj Gibson.

In 2010, a weaker draft than '09, only 8 of 16 players are still in the NBA, but it would be 9 if Larry Sanders didn't flake out. In this instance, 4 are guards and the others forwards, Babbitt, Seraphin, Pondexter, who just blew out his knee and Trevor Booker, a 4 year player from Clemson.

Interestingly, Patrick Patterson (6' 9", 235 lbs) from U of Ky might be the most interesting "comp" for John Collins as he came back for a 3rd year, in which his number slumped due to the presence of Wall & Cousins, but still snuck into the lottery at 14 and is now a fairly productive reserve PF averaging 8 ppg and 5 rpg over his career.
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the most damning thing boeheim said wasn't 50%, it was 3 years. we're going back 7 and 8 years. on a long enough timeline 100% of picks are out of the league. 1st round picks have a very cheap 4th year option that is definitely picked up more than 50% of the time.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
The arguments made here are starting with the assumption that basketball is the only factor.
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Exactly. If money is the only or the primary motivation (and it is for most in JC's situation), there is no debate, JC goes, even with the possibility of climbing up the draft board next year. There may be other factors at play (he is happy at WF; getting a degree or close enough to finish off the remaining credits during a future summer; not feeling ready for the NBA grind as from a basketball standpoint it's not super glamorous see summary below).

Here are the college players who left early and were drafted between 18 and 30 in the 2016 draft (where JC is projected), and what their 2016-7 season has been like:

#18 Henry Ellenson (Marquette) - averaging 4 minutes a game and 1.5 ppg in 14 games with the Pistons: has spent the majority of the season with the Grand Rapids Drive in the D-League
#19 Malik Beasley (FSU) - averaging less than 5 minutes a game and less than 3 ppg in 19 games with the Denver Nuggets; has spent most of the season with the Sioux Falls Sky Force in the D League
#21 DeAndre Bembry (St. Joe's) - averaging less than 10 minutes a game and less than 3 ppg with Atlanta Hawks in 31 games; has spent about half of his time in the D-League
#22 Malachi Richardson (Cuse) - averaging less than 10 minutes a game and less than 4 ppg with the Sacramento Kings in 22 games; has spent much of the season in the D-League with the Reno Bighorns
#27 Pascal Siakam (NM State)- averaging 16 minutes and 4 ppg for the Raptors in 52 games; has spent parts of the season with the Raptors D League team Raptors 905 (yes, that's the team's name)
#28 Skal Labissiere (KY) - averaging 13 minutes a game and 7 ppg for the Sacramento Kings; has spent most of the season with the Reno Bighorns in the D League
#29 Dejounte Murray (Washington) - averaging 8 minutes a game and 3 ppg in 37 games with the Spurs; has spent about half the season with Austin Spurs in the D League
#30 Damian Jones (Vandy) - averaging 7 minutes a game and less than 2 ppg in 9 games with Warriors; has spent most of the season with the Santa Cruz Warriors in the D League.

I can see thinking that playing on a high- profile program might be the more attractive alternative than suiting up for the Sioux Falls Sky Force or the Reno Bighorns as EVERY COLLEGE early entrant taken from #18 on has this past season. JC may not feel like spending his Winter on the Grand Rapids Drive. Not exactly the image that comes to mind for those that claim that going pro is an automatic.
 
JC's Wake season is better than any of the ones Pilch listed had in college.
 
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