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Steve Forbes credibility watch

We currently have no wins that give us the benefit of the doubt come selection time. We are not in unless we change that (Duke) and don't shit the bed against lesser teams. We also need to win the next game against State. We will also probably need to make a run in the ACCT (one win minimum), which is historically a nightmare for us. At least three of those need to happen for us to be in the conversation at the end of the year.
 
You are significantly underestimating our current position.

We have 3 4 game sections of the season left. We need to go 8-4. Get there and it is hard to imagine a scenario where we don't get in.
 
wufu bufu said:
You're telling me if we get swept by Duke, lose @ Pitt, and lose another road game, we're in?
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That's probably one of the only scenarios where it would be a bit rough imo. That would have us at 21-10 (13-7) entering the ACCT as the 3 or 4 seed.

We would wind up with 1/2 Q1 wins and 4/5 Q1 losses. Would depend on the ACCT in all likelihood, where we would likely have at least 1 more shot at a Q1 in the QF and hopefully 2 if we made the semis.
 
Yes, I still think we are in. No Q3 and Q4 losses and a good Q2 record. Not many Q3 or Q4 games either.

Our Net would certainly rise from where we are into the 30s.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
That's probably one of the only scenarios where it would be a bit rough imo. That would have us at 21-10 (13-7) entering the ACCT as the 3 or 4 seed.
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Have to respond to you and ChrisL here, you all are talking as if Wake is already safely in and just has to “stay on track”. At this moment we are firmly, squarely on the bubble, near the cut line. If we don’t distinguish ourselves between now and selection Sunday we are in serious danger of missing the tournament. If all we do between now and then is win the games we are “supposed to win” we will be sweating it out for real.
 
We need at least 15 wins to feel comfortable. I think that could include ACCT wins. I would not be confident at 13-7. Seems unlikely many bubble teams outside maybe the Big 12 who could only win 2/3 if their remaining games and get solidly in.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Have to respond to you and ChrisL here, you all are talking as if Wake is already safely in and just has to “stay on track”. At this moment we are firmly, squarely on the bubble, near the cut line. If we don’t distinguish ourselves between now and selection Sunday we are in serious danger of missing the tournament. If all we do between now and then is win the games we are “supposed to win” we will be sweating it out for real.
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that's why we need to finish 8-4.

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Deacsfan27 said:
That's probably one of the only scenarios where it would be a bit rough imo. That would have us at 21-10 (13-7) entering the ACCT as the 3 or 4 seed.

We would wind up with 1/2 Q1 wins and 4/5 Q1 losses. Would depend on the ACCT in all likelihood, where we would likely have at least 1 more shot at a Q1 in the QF and hopefully 2 if we made the semis.
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It is also probably the most likely scenario.
 
ChrisL68 said:
that's why we need to finish 8-4.

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I don’t think 12 wins alone is nearly enough, unless two of those wins are against Duke. We are currently 5th in the ACC and 3 of the teams ahead of us have defeated us already, and the other is Duke. I personally am not confident we are going to end the season with a better record than all those teams.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I don’t think 12 wins alone is nearly enough, unless two of those wins are against Duke. We are currently 5th in the ACC and 3 of the teams ahead of us have defeated us already, and the other is Duke. I personally am not confident we are going to end the season with a better record than all those teams.
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that would be 13-7. We are 5-3 right now.

and those teams ahead of us aren't even close to being set in stone.
 
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PhDeac said:
We need at least 15 wins to feel comfortable. I think that could include ACCT wins. I would not be confident at 13-7. Seems unlikely many bubble teams outside maybe the Big 12 who could only win 2/3 if their remaining games and get solidly in.
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It's hard to win 2/3rds of your conference games. these are bubble teams for a reason.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I agree that us finishing the rest of our ACC schedule 8-4 is a reasonable expectation. I just don’t think that puts us “safely” in the tournament, unless that record includes some unexpected wins and big margins.
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8-4 the rest of the way should have our Net low 30s I would think with no bad losses, not a high number of bad wins and a solid Q2 record even if our Q1 record might be 1-4.
 
WindyCityDeac said:
I’m old enough to remember when we just cared about seeding for Wake. Not if we would make the tournament. This just sucks out loud
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Not very many people paid attention to KP in 2001. On Selection Sunday, WF was #9 in KP. Butler was #25. WF got a 7 seed and drew 10 seed Butler for its first-round matchup. The ACC had 5 teams in the KP top 12, including Maryland. BC (and Stanford!) were #11 and #2, respectively
 
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WindyCityDeac said:
I’m old enough to remember when we just cared about seeding for Wake. Not if we would make the tournament. This just sucks out loud
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Sadly, we have spent too many years knowing that there was no way we would make it. So it's something of an improvement to at least be worrying about making the tourney.
 
state last year got in 1-6 Q1 no bad losses and 15-0 Q3/Q4 7-4 Q2 net in 40s

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