Steve Forbes credibility watch

[Rafi]

Perception has nothing to do with quad rankings. The ACC collectively needs to do a better job of figuring out how to perform well in this universe.

The good news is I think things are improving, we went from 6 KP 100+ teams the past two years to just three this year. Hopefully some of the struggling programs will continue to improve, and Louisville actually makes a non-shitty hire

The quad rankings are an incredibly stupid application of data that needs to be killed off before the next season starts. There's zero reason beating the #30 team should be worth so much more than beating the #31 team.

 

[DemonDeac08]

Not making excuses, because we had plenty of chances. But, man, what a shit year for roster health. Monsanto, Ituka, Cam, and now Sallis, injured. Reid’s waiver delay. Off-court, Johnetta Forbes’ health scare. Even Marsh’s concussion hurt us in the couple of pre-Efton games where we really needed him but he couldn’t play. Let’s get these guys all back, add a couple of key portal pieces, and win the whole damned thing next year! Ugh, the life of a Wake Forest fan.

 

[wsc8521s]

The quad rankings are an incredibly stupid application of data that needs to be killed off before the next season starts. There's zero reason beating the #30 team should be worth so much more than beating the #31 team.

This is a better argument than the one you were making before. I agree there are flaws in the system, as I pointed out earlier in the thread. But we can either just bitch and moan about how it's stupid, or collectively make adjustments that lead to more ACC teams getting selected. I say we choose the latter

 

[ddeacs98]

Not making excuses, because we had plenty of chances. But, man, what a shit year for roster health.

There was only 1 year that Wake overcame an injury-prone team. 2006 football.

 

[wsc8521s]

The ACC is improving. However, Stanford and Cal were both outside KP’s top 100 this year.

I actually was impressed with what Masden did at Cal, not to mention that he did a good job at Utah Valley. I think they'll hold their own under him.

SMU obviously isn't fucking around as they enter.

Stanford finally got rid of Haase, hopefully they make a good hire as well

 

[Rafi]

This is a better argument than the one you were making before. I agree there are flaws in the system, as I pointed out earlier in the thread. But we can either just bitch and moan about how it's stupid, or collectively make adjustments that lead to more ACC teams getting selected. I say we choose the latter

These arguments go together. For whatever reason, the NCAA has decided to go all in on the quad system, which is just an incredibly dumb use of data. This has led to the perception of, and constant discussions about, how the ACC has declined. When in reality the ACC is essentially where they have always been based on kenpom rankings. ACC teams that were seeded 4-9 are now getting left out of the NCAAs. And the ACC continues to outperform all other leagues in the tournament. It's a surprise to none of us that the ACC has one quarter of the final 16 teams.

The perception of the ACC is affecting our ability to make the NCAAs, because we are finishing 5th in the league and yet not making the tournament.

 

[TheReff]

I watched the retire Meyer game recently.

Cline started at SF as a FR in that game. What shocked me was the number of wide open 15 to 18 foot shots all teams of that era had. I watched the 1983 ACCT and it is crazy how open guys were, with defenses sagging off..

And Cline was so nervous v. DePaul. He was an excellent shooter but was bricking open 15 footers and FT. He was dribbling and thinking about the shot. Over thinking.

In today's game on the ball pressure is so much more intense. I guess Nolan Richardson and Coach K (jerk) helped that happen.

And guys drain shots like RJ Davis was doing with very long Diarra in his face. They're not wide open. And there's no time to think, you just hit the shot.

Did about 30-35 of our practices that year for Tacy. They were amazing in their intensity most of the time and our two starting guards were made much better by having a young ball-hawkster on them at all times harassing them—Muggsy Bogues. Plus Kepley & Garber were intense and versatile and even freshmen Hillman & Wessel helped Teachey, Green & Tom’s improve in practice.

 

[scooter84]

Did about 30-35 of our practices that year for Tacy. They were amazing in their intensity most of the time and our two starting guards were made much better by having a young ball-hawkster on them at all times harassing them—Muggsy Bogues. Plus Kepley & Garber were intense and versatile and even freshmen Hillman & Wessel helped Teachey, Green & Tom’s improve in practice.

Can you imagine being a guard and having to practice against Muggsy everyday? He could make you look stupid like no one else. He would be going the other way with the ball before you even knew what happened.

 

[TheReff]

These arguments go together. For whatever reason, the NCAA has decided to go all in on the quad system, which is just an incredibly dumb use of data. This has led to the perception of, and constant discussions about, how the ACC has declined. When in reality the ACC is essentially where they have always been based on kenpom rankings. ACC teams that were seeded 4-9 are now getting left out of the NCAAs. And the ACC continues to outperform all other leagues in the tournament. It's a surprise to none of us that the ACC has one quarter of the final 16 teams.

The perception of the ACC is affecting our ability to make the NCAAs, because we are finishing 5th in the league and yet not making the tournament.

Other schools are stepping up their ability by also using the transfer portal and/or getting hs recruits to stay 4-5 and mature as a team. We are affecting our own ability to make tourney by losing to non-qualifiers like LSU, UGa & Utah in Nov then shitting the bed down the stretch by losing to our own bottom feeders like GT, ND & VT. Take 4 of 6 there, we are 24-9 overall even with Pitt loss in ACCT and we are a 6 seed like Clemson.
Quit worrying about getting screwed and just win the games we should!

 

[TheReff]

Yes, I seem to remember him and Vidaretta both being prone to foul trouble early in the games. It was nice, and somewhat necessary due to the inevitable foul trouble, to be able to have that rotation between them and Schoemaker.

Songalia was such a great offensive weapon for us in the low post.

Did practices for Odom with Darius, Vidaretta & Shoemaker. That was knock down drag out every day. Plus they were buddies. Would draw blood and laugh about it.

 

[TheReff]

Sure. But part of that perception is because Wake didn't beat Georgia, Utah, and LSU and other ACC teams didn't get those types of wins either.

With Pitt also being behind the 8-ball by losing in Nov by 15 to FL and losing at home to Mizzou who would finish 0-18 in the SEC. Played nobody else and started out 0-3 in the ACC.

 

[wsc8521s]

Yeah, Pitt was having a very poor season before Jan. 20th. They did well to nearly overcome that, and perhaps would have if they'd lost to us by a respectable margin.

I do think some of these coaches in this league like Capel are pretty mid and do enough to keep their teams consistently in bubble trouble. I hope Forbes isn't yet another example of that, but the evidence is mounting

 

[Rafi]

Other schools are stepping up their ability by also using the transfer portal and/or getting hs recruits to stay 4-5 and mature as a team. We are affecting our own ability to make tourney by losing to non-qualifiers like LSU, UGa & Utah in Nov then shitting the bed down the stretch by losing to our own bottom feeders like GT, ND & VT. Take 4 of 6 there, we are 24-9 overall even with Pitt loss in ACCT and we are a 6 seed like Clemson.
Quit worrying about getting screwed and just win the games we should!

You completely missed the point. Prior to 2019, losing to teams like that happened, yet teams that were above 500 in the ACC made the tourney. For example, in 2010 Wake was 19-10, 9-7 in the ACC. That team lost at home to William & Mary yet we were seeded 9 in the NCAAs. The difference is the perception of the ACC, which is the point myself and others were making.

 

[TheReff]

The ACC is improving. However, Stanford and Cal were both outside KP’s top 100 this year.

And coming from the “terrible” PAC-12 which only had 3 qualifiers, yet have a 6-2 record with 2 teams in Sweet 16.

 

[TheReff]

You completely missed the point. Prior to 2019, losing to teams like that happened, yet teams that were above 500 in the ACC made the tourney. For example, in 2010 Wake was 19-10, 9-7 in the ACC. That team lost at home to William & Mary yet we were seeded 9 in the NCAAs. The difference is the perception of the ACC, which is the point myself and others were making.

I get your point but only partly true as a 12 team conference vs 15 team and the bottom has been very bad (FSU last year, Louisville past couple). FSU losing to the dregs last couple of seasons hit national stage news and affected ACC thinking. As has Louisville.
We also only played 16 conference games instead of 20. Then as I have said over & over we kill ourselves with several bad early losses, no big early wins like Clemson this year and then shitting the bed late.

 

[wsc8521s]

Prior to 2019, losing to teams like that happened, yet teams that were above 500 in the ACC made the tourney.

Teams that missed the tournament under that criteria in the KP era:
2000 Uva
2006 FSU
2008 VT
2010 VT
2011 VT
2011 BC
2012 Miami
2013 Uva
2014 Clemson
2015 Miami
2016 Clemson
2016 VT
2017 Syracuse

Not an insanely small list

 

[Haros]

These arguments go together. For whatever reason, the NCAA has decided to go all in on the quad system, which is just an incredibly dumb use of data. This has led to the perception of, and constant discussions about, how the ACC has declined. When in reality the ACC is essentially where they have always been based on kenpom rankings. ACC teams that were seeded 4-9 are now getting left out of the NCAAs. And the ACC continues to outperform all other leagues in the tournament. It's a surprise to none of us that the ACC has one quarter of the final 16 teams.

The perception of the ACC is affecting our ability to make the NCAAs, because we are finishing 5th in the league and yet not making the tournament.

I wish this was true. It’s not. The perception of the ACC goes hand in hand with a drop in the conference’s relative ranking.

From 1999-2019, 18 of 21 years the ACC was a top 3 conference. 2021-2024: 0 for 4. Best finish 5th (this year and 2022). Low point of 7th last year.

2018 and 2019, where you referenced the 9 bids and 7 bids: 2nd and 3rd. Get back to top 3 finishes and getting more than 5 bids will take care of itself.

 

[Rafi]

Teams that missed the tournament under that criteria in the KP era:
2000 Uva
2006 FSU
2008 VT
2010 VT
2011 VT
2011 BC
2012 Miami
2013 Uva
2014 Clemson
2015 Miami
2016 Clemson
2016 VT
2017 Syracuse

Not an insanely small list

I appreciate you looking that up. Kenpom only goes back to 2002 - is that UVA team from 2002, not 2000? That's a pretty small list for ~20 years of teams.

Do you have quick access to how many teams ranked 5th or better in the ACC didn't make the tourney prior to 2019?

 

[Rafi]

I wish this was true. It’s not. The perception of the ACC goes hand in hand with a drop in the conference’s relative ranking.

From 1999-2019, 18 of 21 years the ACC was a top 3 conference. 2021-2024: 0 for 4. Best finish 5th (this year and 2022). Low point of 7th last year.

2018 and 2019, where you referenced the 9 bids and 7 bids: 2nd and 3rd. Get back to top 3 finishes and getting more than 5 bids will take care of itself.

Good point. Are those kenpom rankings? I wonder how much the bottom few teams are dragging the league ranking down? Because the NCAA tourney performances sure haven't worsened.

 

[DeacDaddy]

I understand that the ACC perception is bad and this has hurt us. But let’s not lose sight of the narrative.

Because to me, injuries, player eligibility, reffing… it all adds up to excuses. We had our chances to make the tournament and just failed spectacularly. Our road self destructions were so bad that I just don’t think you can chalk this year’s NCAA denial up to poor conference perception.

And based on how we finished our season and how unsteady we were on the road, who knows how we would have performed had we been invited.

Forbes has been given enough time to show his strengths and weaknesses that his record stands or falls on its own merits and not on outside circumstances. And that record so far is 0 tourney appearances.