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Totally Official Pit Dynasty Fantasy Football League Thread

It's a good thing you're taking over as commissioner for the 20-team league next year
 
Son of a bitch, I thought Walker was playing last night. If I lose to Barca it's because I go to bed at like 745.
 
Tic might set a new record for the greatest percentage of points from a single player in a week. Ceedee Lamb scored 26.6 points last night, and the rest of the 9 guys in his lineup are projected to score 39.6 combined. That's nearly half from one guy!
 
All signs pointing to another high-scoring BATTLE this week against Triple. I guess the good news is even if I win and didn't score that many points I'm probably too far back to make the playoffs in a tiebreaker so let's just have a high scoring affair where we all have fun!
 
deacon14 said:
Week 13 Matchups of Note:

Numbers (5-7) vs Triple (6-6)

It’s not quite a must-win for Triple yet, but it absolutely is for numbers who would be eliminated with a loss. Josh Jacobs and DJ Moore are on bye for Triple, which may make it a difficult week for his team.​

Gooner (5-7) vs Ghost (5-7)

This is a must-win for both sides, with one team facing an elimination with a loss. Ghost has Josh Allen on bye and only Dorian Thompson-Robinson to plug in as a QB, who may miss the week with an injury. Expect it to be a busy week in trade talks/waiver decisions for Ghost. Gooner has James Cook on bye, but is otherwise good to go.​

Mako (6-6) vs Barca (7-5)

Neither team can be eliminated here, but a win would go a LONG way. Mako’s team losing results in a must-win Week 14, whereas Barca wants that 8th win to avoid tiebreaker scenarios. Kincaid is on bye for mako, and Flowers is on bye for Barca, so both squads are relatively close to full strength for this one.​

YoungBuck (7-5) vs BigTree (5-7)

It’s last call for BigTree, who absolutely has to beat a surging YoungBuck to keep the playoff dream alive. Youngbuck would like that 8th win here to put any doubts about his playoff surge to bed. YB needs Goedert back from injury to replace bye-week Cole Kmet, and BigTree is facing this matchup without Davante Adams or Alexander Mattison.​


So that’s the league. Trade deadline is Week 13, so there’s still the potential for some more moving pieces if teams on the bubble decide to make a push or decide to give up and sell. Sorry to anyone that feels I did not do their squad justice in my write-up, but hopefully this was an entertaining summary of the Pit Dynasty League.
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Monday morning update time!

YoungBuck 95.05 - BigTree 80.05. Left to play: JaMarr Chase, Calvin Ridley, and Tanner Hudson (YB) vs Joe Mixon (BigTree).
Barring 50+ fantasy points for Mixon like he did against the Panthers last season, this one is essentially over. And thus, YoungBuck's playoff spot is solidified and BigTree is eliminated from contention.​
​
Barca 83.0 - mako 76.3. Left to play: Jake Browning, Travis Etienne (Barca).
This one is legitimately over with mako having no remaining players, dropping mako to 6-7 and clinching a playoff spot for Barca. Some mistakes for mako here cost him, as he mistakenly started both Ken Walker and Dalton Schultz, both of whom ended up out with injury this week. Certainly a case of missing the last-minute OUT designations, and with no viable backup TE to plug in perhaps even attentiveness would have resulted in a loss here.​
​
Gooner 189 - Ghost 96.9
In the elimination game of the week, Gooner nearly doubles Ghost's points. Without a QB to start, Ghost was already in trouble, and then Gooner's squad erupted to keep themselves alive going into the final week.​
​
Numbers 128.1 - Triple 110. Left to play: Evan Engram (numbers) vs Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones
This one is coming down to the wire, as Sleeper gives numbers a 60% win probability. Numbers is eliminated with a loss here, whereas Triple can clinch a playoff spot at 7-6 due to the other results this week. It all comes down to the Jags offense. Evan Engram's PPG in his last 5 games is 8.26, whereas Lawrence's PPG in the last 5 is 20.93 and Zay Jones has missed most of the season, but put up 4.0 and 1.5 in the last two weeks after finally getting back on the field. Lots of ways this could go, but it seems likely to be close.​
​
This leaves the current picture as: D14, Edarem, YoungBuck, Barca have clinched a playoff spot. tic, Satan, Ghost, and BigTree have been eliminated. Gooner, mako, Numbers, and Triple are left fighting for the final two playoff spots.
 
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Gonna be sad tonight when Christian Kirk cucks me out of $10
 
Week 13 Recap!

Week 13 promised fireworks and a shakeup to the playoff race, and it absolutely delivered in a big way. I’ve already updated above on the matchups going into Monday, so let’s just jump right into the most impactful one: Numbers vs Triple.

Going into MNF, it was projected to be a close finish with Evan Engram (+18 point lead) for Numbers vs Trevor Lawrence/Zay Jones for Triple. And it ended up being one of the most back and forth impactful fantasy football matchups that I have ever seen. Things started with a TD to Evan Engram, which led to Sleeper projecting >95% win probability for Numbers. However, Trevor Lawrence chipped away at that lead, and once he got the rushing TD Triple retook the lead. Then, catastrophe struck for Triple as Trevor Lawrence left the game with injury. With the backup QB passing to both Engram and Jones, things swung back and forth for fantasy multiple times towards the end of regulation. On the last JAX drive of regulation, Evan Engram made several catches, but Numbers still trailed by about 1 point. OT ended up saving Numbers from elimination, as Evan Engram provided just enough to push Numbers ahead of Triple. Final score ended up being 149.05-148, and Numbers stays alive in the playoff hunt.

Here's where things currently stand as far as projected playoff odds, with Gooner, Numbers, Triple and Mako still fighting for a spot and their playoff chances being projected in that order:

1701790219072.png

Here’s the Points For totals for the teams that are currently 6-7, as they will matter for tiebreakers:

Gooner – 1699.4
Triple – 1637.15
Mako – 1597.45
Numbers – 1583.45

Here’s the Week 14 matchups that matter:

@Gooner vs @mako1331 : This one is simple, winner goes to 7-7 and (most likely) the playoffs, while loser falls to 6-8 and (most likely) misses the playoffs. Gooner has a big lead in points scored on the season over the other 3 in the race, so if he wins this week he’s in the playoffs. If Gooner loses, he will need Triple and Numbers to BOTH lose, in which case Gooner would still be in the playoffs even at 6-8 unless he gets caught on points somehow. If Mako wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Triple/Numbers BOTH win AND Numbers makes up a 14 point deficit on Mako AND Triple keeps his 40 point lead over Mako. If Mako loses to Gooner, he would need Triple/Numbers to BOTH lose AND Mako would need to outscore Triple by 40+ this week in order to make playoffs at 6-8.

@Wakeforest22890 vs @tic : The schedule gods have smiled on Numbers, who gets the ghost of tic in his must-win matchup. However, even winning may not be enough here for Numbers, as he has the worst season point total of these 4 in the race. If Numbers wins this week, the easiest path to the playoffs is Triple losing, meaning that Numbers and the winner of Gooner/Mako would be 7-7 and both in. If Triple also gets to 7-7, Numbers needs to catch either Triple (Numbers currently down 54 points) OR Mako if he beats Gooner (Numbers currently down 14 points). Considering that he is down >100 points to Gooner catching up is very unlikely there, and thus Numbers would rather see Gooner fall to 6-8 and mako be the one at 7-7. If Numbers loses this matchup, I don’t really see a path to making the playoffs. He would theoretically need Triple AND Mako to lose AND to have caught both of them on season points in order to get in at 6-8.

@deacon14 vs @TripleDeacon : This one means a lot to both parties believe it or not. D14 is chasing down Edarem for the highest season-long point total (D14 currently down 7), which is a big deal for both #1 seed tiebreaker and the associated prize for total points. If D14 wins, he clinches #1 seed regardless of points and that prize. Meanwhile, Triple’s best path forward to playoffs is certainly a win here. If Triple wins, he simply needs to maintain his 54-point lead on Numbers and he will be in the playoffs at 7-7. If Triple loses, he needs Numbers AND Mako to lose AND to maintain his point total advantage over both. Theoretically, Triple could do it with Gooner instead of Mako losing, but he’d need to make up 62 points on Gooner in that case to be the 6-8 playoff team.


I also want to give a shoutout to @BigTreeDeac and @Ghostsurfer (both 5-8), who by my calculation are not technically dead yet, even though the calculator thinks it’s such a long shot it’s not worth mentioning. If Numbers AND Triple lose this week, the final playoff team will be 6-8. If either BigTree or Ghost win this week, they’d also be 6-8. The problem arises when you realize that BigTree only has 1566.55 points and Ghost only has 1533.8, both of which trails all 4 of the current 6-7 teams. Neither of them can realistically catch Gooner (>120 point difference), so they really need Mako/Numbers/Triple to be the 6-8 teams vying for the last spot. The biggest gap each would need to make up would be: BigTree is 71.7 points behind Triple and Ghost is 103.35 points behind Triple. It’s an insane longshot here, but still in theory possible!
 
mako1331 said:
I'm not sure if Gooner godmodded the schedule but I can't think of anyone I'd rather play in the last week with the playoffs on the line.
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All recent history of us playing internet games suggests I am going to have a bad time this weekend. Good luck, sir!
 
Weird that I'm 0% to get the 5 seed on that site since the odds of:

1) Me winning
2) Mako beating Gooner
3) Me outscoring Mako by 15 points

Seems higher than 0%!
 
I just need my opponent to score 80 2 more rounds in a row and then what can I say I am the winner.
 
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