Week 13 Recap!
Week 13 promised fireworks and a shakeup to the playoff race, and it absolutely delivered in a big way. I’ve already updated above on the matchups going into Monday, so let’s just jump right into the most impactful one: Numbers vs Triple.
Going into MNF, it was projected to be a close finish with Evan Engram (+18 point lead) for Numbers vs Trevor Lawrence/Zay Jones for Triple. And it ended up being one of the most back and forth impactful fantasy football matchups that I have ever seen. Things started with a TD to Evan Engram, which led to Sleeper projecting >95% win probability for Numbers. However, Trevor Lawrence chipped away at that lead, and once he got the rushing TD Triple retook the lead. Then, catastrophe struck for Triple as Trevor Lawrence left the game with injury. With the backup QB passing to both Engram and Jones, things swung back and forth for fantasy multiple times towards the end of regulation. On the last JAX drive of regulation, Evan Engram made several catches, but Numbers still trailed by about 1 point. OT ended up saving Numbers from elimination, as Evan Engram provided just enough to push Numbers ahead of Triple. Final score ended up being 149.05-148, and Numbers stays alive in the playoff hunt.
Here's where things currently stand as far as projected playoff odds, with Gooner, Numbers, Triple and Mako still fighting for a spot and their playoff chances being projected in that order:
Here’s the Points For totals for the teams that are currently 6-7, as they will matter for tiebreakers:
Gooner – 1699.4
Triple – 1637.15
Mako – 1597.45
Numbers – 1583.45
Here’s the Week 14 matchups that matter:
@Gooner vs
@mako1331 : This one is simple, winner goes to 7-7 and (most likely) the playoffs, while loser falls to 6-8 and (most likely) misses the playoffs. Gooner has a big lead in points scored on the season over the other 3 in the race, so if he wins this week he’s in the playoffs. If Gooner loses, he will need Triple and Numbers to BOTH lose, in which case Gooner would still be in the playoffs even at 6-8 unless he gets caught on points somehow. If Mako wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Triple/Numbers BOTH win AND Numbers makes up a 14 point deficit on Mako AND Triple keeps his 40 point lead over Mako. If Mako loses to Gooner, he would need Triple/Numbers to BOTH lose AND Mako would need to outscore Triple by 40+ this week in order to make playoffs at 6-8.
@Wakeforest22890 vs
@tic : The schedule gods have smiled on Numbers, who gets the ghost of tic in his must-win matchup. However, even winning may not be enough here for Numbers, as he has the worst season point total of these 4 in the race. If Numbers wins this week, the easiest path to the playoffs is Triple losing, meaning that Numbers and the winner of Gooner/Mako would be 7-7 and both in. If Triple also gets to 7-7, Numbers needs to catch either Triple (Numbers currently down 54 points) OR Mako if he beats Gooner (Numbers currently down 14 points). Considering that he is down >100 points to Gooner catching up is very unlikely there, and thus Numbers would rather see Gooner fall to 6-8 and mako be the one at 7-7. If Numbers loses this matchup, I don’t really see a path to making the playoffs. He would theoretically need Triple AND Mako to lose AND to have caught both of them on season points in order to get in at 6-8.
@deacon14 vs
@TripleDeacon : This one means a lot to both parties believe it or not. D14 is chasing down Edarem for the highest season-long point total (D14 currently down 7), which is a big deal for both #1 seed tiebreaker and the associated prize for total points. If D14 wins, he clinches #1 seed regardless of points and that prize. Meanwhile, Triple’s best path forward to playoffs is certainly a win here. If Triple wins, he simply needs to maintain his 54-point lead on Numbers and he will be in the playoffs at 7-7. If Triple loses, he needs Numbers AND Mako to lose AND to maintain his point total advantage over both. Theoretically, Triple could do it with Gooner instead of Mako losing, but he’d need to make up 62 points on Gooner in that case to be the 6-8 playoff team.
I also want to give a shoutout to
@BigTreeDeac and
@Ghostsurfer (both 5-8), who by my calculation are not technically dead yet, even though the calculator thinks it’s such a long shot it’s not worth mentioning. If Numbers AND Triple lose this week, the final playoff team will be 6-8. If either BigTree or Ghost win this week, they’d also be 6-8. The problem arises when you realize that BigTree only has 1566.55 points and Ghost only has 1533.8, both of which trails all 4 of the current 6-7 teams. Neither of them can realistically catch Gooner (>120 point difference), so they really need Mako/Numbers/Triple to be the 6-8 teams vying for the last spot. The biggest gap each would need to make up would be: BigTree is 71.7 points behind Triple and Ghost is 103.35 points behind Triple. It’s an insane longshot here, but still in theory possible!