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WF Tennis (WS Open Starts Saturday)

NC State takes doubles. I still think we're the favorites in singles, but it will be a battle.
 
Going to be tough it looks like. We're up 2-1 with easy win at 4 and 6, but about to drop court 1. Court 5 looks like it will go our way so 3-2, and then we'll need Romo or Dennis to win in a 3rd.
 
Disappointing by Bogaerts. He was top 10 in the country as a freshman, just as good as a sophomore, and now is losing in straight sets to a mediocre team at #2
 
Welp, that's it. That loss is going to kill our ranking, any by implication, our tournament seeding
 
Rafi said:
Sucks to lose, but this match won't mean much at the end of the year.
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I wish that was the case, but it's not true. Under the rankings formula, a loss to a team that low in the rankings has a big impact. Even at the end of the season, it will cost us at least 2-4 ranking spots which could be the difference between being a top 8 seed and not.

Granted NC State will move up by virtue of beating us, but I'm not super confident they are going to stay there
 
Yes, it might mean the difference of a couple spots in the rankings based on the ita formula, but we'll have plenty of chances to make up for it during the ACC season. This exact same argument came up last year when we lost 4-3 at NC State. Go back about 15 pages or so.
 
Actually, the discussion from last year is all the way back on page 6.
 
This loss alone more than doubles the amount of loss points that we had already. It's significant. Yes, we have opportunity to pick up more wins, but no matter what, the loss always counts - you can never completely make up for it.

It will definitely hurt on trying to be top 8 (and therefore playing a lower ranked team in the Sweet 16) at the end of the season. Not to mention that depending on how ACC results go, it increases the possibility of being the #4 seed in the ACC tournament, which we definitely don't want
 
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Rafi said:
Actually, the discussion from last year is all the way back on page 6.
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Haha, I remember that discussion. One of the reasons I trust Rafi's take on this thread over anyone else. IIRC ChrisL68 was almost Ph-like in his avoiding acknowledgement of defeat.
 
Neurodeac said:
Haha, I remember that discussion. One of the reasons I trust Rafi's take on this thread over anyone else. IIRC ChrisL68 was almost Ph-like in his avoiding acknowledgement of defeat.
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Last year's State loss? It hurt us and made it less likely that we would advance deep in the tournament, because we had to play a better team in the round of 16, where we lost.

You want to advance deep in a tournament, your best chance is to get the best seed you can. It isn't brain surgery.

I think the aim of the program is to not just be satisfied making the sweet 16 and going home quickly.
 
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ChrisL68 said:
Last year's State loss? It hurt us and made it less likely that we would advance deep in the tournament, because we had to play a better team in the round of 16, where we lost.

You want to advance deep in a tournament, your best chance is to get the best seed you can. It isn't brain surgery.

I think the aim of the program is to not just be satisfied making the sweet 16 and going home quickly.
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Are we really doing this again? Go look at page 6. After losing to State last year you said, "wake will drop significantly in the rankings because of this loss." Prior to the loss we were ranked 12 and after the loss we were ranked 12.

This year, it has even less meaning, as we lost because our two best players were out of the country playing Davis Cup. If we play well when they return, we can be a top 5 team and will be ranked accordingly going into the NCAA tourney. If our play worsens as the year goes on, we'll be ranked closer to 16. This loss has little bearing on that.
 
Rafi said:
Are we really doing this again? Go look at page 6. After losing to State last year you said, "wake will drop significantly in the rankings because of this loss." Prior to the loss we were ranked 12 and after the loss we were ranked 12.

This year, it has even less meaning, as we lost because our two best players were out of the country playing Davis Cup. If we play well when they return, we can be a top 5 team and will be ranked accordingly going into the NCAA tourney. If our play worsens as the year goes on, we'll be ranked closer to 16. This loss has little bearing on that.
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Maybe the rankings weren't fully computerized at that point which can throw off some weird results. We won 9 of our last 10 and including a win over UNC and a loss to #1 Va in the ACC finals and we finished #12 in the rankings.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Maybe the rankings weren't fully computerized at that point which can throw off some weird results. We won 9 of our last 10 and including a win over UNC and a loss to #1 Va in the ACC finals and we finished #12 in the rankings.
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Yes, the rankings were "computerized" at that point. It was 3/28/15 - three weeks further into the season than we are right now.
 
Rafi said:
Are we really doing this again? Go look at page 6. After losing to State last year you said, "wake will drop significantly in the rankings because of this loss." Prior to the loss we were ranked 12 and after the loss we were ranked 12.

This year, it has even less meaning, as we lost because our two best players were out of the country playing Davis Cup. If we play well when they return, we can be a top 5 team and will be ranked accordingly going into the NCAA tourney. If our play worsens as the year goes on, we'll be ranked closer to 16. This loss has little bearing on that.
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Math has pretty much eliminated us from being a top 5 team unless we get like three total wins against Virginia and UNC. Before this loss, we wouldn't have needed that. This is stupid to argue about, because there is a mathematically true answer.

There is never a case where losses don't matter. They always count in the rankings formula, no matter what you win. We will always be ranked lower because we lost to NC State than we would be if we had beaten them. Always.
 
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MysteryMen said:
Math has pretty much eliminated us from being a top 5 team unless we get like three total wins against Virginia and UNC. Before this loss, we wouldn't have needed that. This is stupid to argue about, because there is a mathematically true answer.

There is never a case where losses don't matter. They always count in the rankings formula, no matter what you win. We will always be ranked lower because we lost to NC State than we would be if we had beaten them. Always.
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Yes, Duke's basketball team last year would have had a higher kenpom absolute number if they hadn't lost to NC State in the regular season. Do you think they care now? No, because they ended the season playing well. Wake's tennis team is at the point that if they continue to play well they could play themselves into a top 4 ranking. If they don't play as well, they'll be closer to 16. I don't think a short-handed match against NC State means much at all in the long run for this team. You apparently do. It's a difference of opinion.

Look at Illinois tennis last year. They lost to #33 MN in the Big Ten tourney, yet still ended the year ranked 4. So, a loss to a lower ranked team didn't affect their seeding in the NCAA tourney, but it did indicate they weren't playing as well as they had earlier in the year, and that showed when they lost in the sweet 16.
 
The KenPom analogy is meaningless because NCAA selection isn't done by KenPom. There you have a human committee that can overlook losses if a team finishes strong. In tennis the losses always count the same, no matter what you win.

Last year not losing to NC State would have made us the #11 seed instead of #12. It could have hurt us more, but there was a big gap between 10 and 11. Whether you think that's meaningful is up to you.
 
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