Pilchard
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WF, BC and Clemson are the ACC's only winless teams in conference play. The Deacs look to continue their futility tomorrow with a dreaded Tuesday night home matchup against State. Here is the skinny on the Pack:
Record: State is 14-2 overall 2-1 in the ACC and #26 KP. Their two losses are at home to UNC (#10) and to Wisconsin (#14) on the road. State's top 100 wins are against #11 Auburn by 7, #61 Penn St. by 11, #68 Miami by 5 and #80 Pitt by 6. State played a lot of craptastic teams early, and their overall OOC schedule is rated #351 out 354 teams. FWIW, WF is the #161 team in the nation; one spot ahead of UTSA, and behind the likes of Colgate, Bucknell, Radford and Stony Brook.
Offense: Team strength #12 team in the nation on offense. State plays at fast tempo (#9), and does almost everything well on offense, but get the line (#230 in FTA/FGA). State likes to shoot quickly and go after the ball, they are #8 in offensive rebounds, #15 in 3 PT%, #20 in 2 PT% and #8 in overall effective FG%. Odd for a good shooting team, State has struggled from the line 69.7% (#185). State likes to score points: in their 16 games, State has reached 100 three times, 90 three other times, and has scored at least 80 all but twice. Against a soft WF D, would expect State to score often.
Defense: State's defense is all about pressure (#71). They are #4 in the nation in forcing TOs, and their aggressive defensive style puts their opponents on the line (#298 in opponents' FTA/FGA). State does not have a lot of size; so, teams have been able to score inside against the Pack when their D doesn't force a TO (#154 in 2 PT% defense). While State has defended the 3 well in OOC games, their 3 ACC opponents have burned State from behind the line (ACC teams shooting 41% from 3 against State).
Lineup: Keatts like to come at his opponent in waves. State is #18 in the nation in bench minutes. In Saturday's win over Pitt, 9 Pack players either started of logged 10 or minutes. In the Pack's last game they started: 6-0 So. PG Braxton Beverly, 6-1 Jr. G Markell Johnson, 6-5 Sr. F Torin Dorn, 6-5 Sr. CJ Bryce (UNCW transfer) and C 6-9 Sr. Wyatt Walker (Samford transfer). In their last game, Walker was ejected early in the game, and Markell Johnson was injured after a bad fall. Every Pack player except for Walker can hit the 3. Beverly and Johnson make more than 40 % of their threes. Johnson also shoots 69% from 2 (which is crazy good for a guard). State is hard to defend against because so many different players can score. State has had different high scorer in each of their 3 ACC games (20 for Markell Johnson against Miami, 21 for Beverley against UNC, 19 for Devon Daniels off the bench against Pitt).
Bottom line: KP projects 86-76 Pack victory (81% probability of a State win) . This is the first of 3 straight road games for State. So, would expect the Pack to be focused to start their road trip with a win. Also, it's always good to beat up on a weaker in-state foe. Expect the game to go one of two ways: WF will get dusted from the start and lose big. WF will hang until about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, and State will turn up the pressure and WF will surrender a huge State run leading to a comfortable win. Either way, the Pack score 90+ and win by double digits.
Record: State is 14-2 overall 2-1 in the ACC and #26 KP. Their two losses are at home to UNC (#10) and to Wisconsin (#14) on the road. State's top 100 wins are against #11 Auburn by 7, #61 Penn St. by 11, #68 Miami by 5 and #80 Pitt by 6. State played a lot of craptastic teams early, and their overall OOC schedule is rated #351 out 354 teams. FWIW, WF is the #161 team in the nation; one spot ahead of UTSA, and behind the likes of Colgate, Bucknell, Radford and Stony Brook.
Offense: Team strength #12 team in the nation on offense. State plays at fast tempo (#9), and does almost everything well on offense, but get the line (#230 in FTA/FGA). State likes to shoot quickly and go after the ball, they are #8 in offensive rebounds, #15 in 3 PT%, #20 in 2 PT% and #8 in overall effective FG%. Odd for a good shooting team, State has struggled from the line 69.7% (#185). State likes to score points: in their 16 games, State has reached 100 three times, 90 three other times, and has scored at least 80 all but twice. Against a soft WF D, would expect State to score often.
Defense: State's defense is all about pressure (#71). They are #4 in the nation in forcing TOs, and their aggressive defensive style puts their opponents on the line (#298 in opponents' FTA/FGA). State does not have a lot of size; so, teams have been able to score inside against the Pack when their D doesn't force a TO (#154 in 2 PT% defense). While State has defended the 3 well in OOC games, their 3 ACC opponents have burned State from behind the line (ACC teams shooting 41% from 3 against State).
Lineup: Keatts like to come at his opponent in waves. State is #18 in the nation in bench minutes. In Saturday's win over Pitt, 9 Pack players either started of logged 10 or minutes. In the Pack's last game they started: 6-0 So. PG Braxton Beverly, 6-1 Jr. G Markell Johnson, 6-5 Sr. F Torin Dorn, 6-5 Sr. CJ Bryce (UNCW transfer) and C 6-9 Sr. Wyatt Walker (Samford transfer). In their last game, Walker was ejected early in the game, and Markell Johnson was injured after a bad fall. Every Pack player except for Walker can hit the 3. Beverly and Johnson make more than 40 % of their threes. Johnson also shoots 69% from 2 (which is crazy good for a guard). State is hard to defend against because so many different players can score. State has had different high scorer in each of their 3 ACC games (20 for Markell Johnson against Miami, 21 for Beverley against UNC, 19 for Devon Daniels off the bench against Pitt).
Bottom line: KP projects 86-76 Pack victory (81% probability of a State win) . This is the first of 3 straight road games for State. So, would expect the Pack to be focused to start their road trip with a win. Also, it's always good to beat up on a weaker in-state foe. Expect the game to go one of two ways: WF will get dusted from the start and lose big. WF will hang until about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, and State will turn up the pressure and WF will surrender a huge State run leading to a comfortable win. Either way, the Pack score 90+ and win by double digits.
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