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Kentucky Derby TODAY

RJKarl

RJKarl

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Time for a board tradition.

I'm not sure if this is year of mediocre horses or a lot of good ones playing off each other. There could be a Triple Crown winner or a different horse in each race.

It looks like the top tier horse will be the ones to look at.

Omaha Beach- Hall of Famer trainer Richard "Papa" Mandella has won basically everything in racing other than the Derby. He rarely has Triple Crown horses. Omaha Beach has beaten Improbable and Game Winner fairly easily. Add to this, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith chose to ride Omaha Beach over co-favorite Roadster. I'm leaning towards Omaha Beach at this point.

Maximun Security hasn't beaten much, but has been really impressive. One the keys in the race is whether Omaha Beach and Maximum Security will get into a speed duel on the lead. If they rate, it could be very tough to catch either of them. MS is definitely a contender.

Roadster - the little horse that can. He will be closing. Like Justify, he's a Baffert horse who got started late. Like Justify, he seems to be peaking at the right time. Post position may be critical. The only negative for him is that Mike Smith chose Omaha Beach over him to ride in the Derby.

Game Winner -Until a month ago, the Breeders Cup Juvenile champ was the clear favorite. Then he lost to Omaha Beach and Roadster in consecutive races. He could have been conserving energy or maybe he's just not as good. But there's a long-held concept of betting the higher odds Baffert horse in big races.

Improbable -looked like a monster coming into this year, but seems to have flattened out. His loss in the Rebel could be chalked up to being his first race in several months and a wide trip. Baffert's price horse?

Tacitus -won the Wood Memorial to get into the Derby. His daddy is the world's leading sire. He can the distance, but i'm not sure if he's good enough.

Others:

Vekoma- Won the Bluegrass impressively, but looks a little cheap. Maybe he'll get lucky.

War of Will- son of international super star racer and sire War Front. The Belmont could even be a better distance for him. Early this year year, he was the "wise guy" horse and favorite in the futures book. Then, he threw in an absolute stinker in the LA Derby and dropped like a rock. Young horses often have a bad race. He might be a play a decent price.

Anothertwistafate isn't in the race at this point, but could get in with a couple of scratches. I don't think he can win, but if he's in the race, I will be including him exactas, tris and supers.

Like every year, the post draw and weather will come into play.

Right now, I'm leaning towards Omaha Beach for emotional and racing reasons. Papa Mandella is one of the good guys and I'd love to see him win. On the mind part of it, he has fended off Improbable and Game Winner without seeming to exert himself fully.

I'm getting more into Pick 4s and will do this as well.
 
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A tradition (for one) unlike any other.
 
I enjoy the thread. Mandella’s son was on CBS radio yesterday and basically said that they gave Mike Smith something to ride their horse.
 
Here's my attempt to talk ponies with RJ...


Big three in this race for me:

Omaha Beach - Post 12 sets up perfectly for him. Can sit right behind the inside speed until he's ready to make a move but not so far outside that he has to run a closer race. No brainer that he's the favorite.

Game Winner - The outside post draws probably helps him. I think the goal will be to fall in line right behind OB and sit there until late. Sloppy track could make it hard for him though.

Maximum Security - I was really positive about him and the 7 post seems to suit him perfectly. I'm starting to cool a little bit though since this field will be such a step up from what he saw in the Florida Derby. He may have to fight WOW for the front early, face a charge from Omaha Beach down the back stretch, and then hold off late runs from Game Winner or Roadster at the end. Actually may be good for him if WOW sets a fast pace early so he doesn't have to run from the front.


Others:

I haven't really bought into Tacitus as a favorite, but the draw is there so maybe he ends up being a factor. I don't think Roadster is the horse that GW is and don't think he'll be able to make the long run from the outside that GW will have to, and be able to, make. Post position is going to be hard for WOW to overcome. I might've had Country House as a longshot who might make some noise, but 20th position isn't great.
 
Tim, you are right on target. We don't know how good Maximum Security is, because he hasn't beaten anyone. He could be great, but we can't tell. What we do know is someone should have bought him for $16,000 when he was in a claiming race early on. :)

You have to throw out War of Will's last race as he stumbled. Getting the one hole is bad.

Tim, take a look at betting a $0.50 Pick 4. Even if Omaha Beach wins, it should pay well.
 
It could be fun to do a $10-12 Oaks/Derby Double. Bet Bellafina in the Oaks to five or 6 horses in the Derby. Including a couple of long shots could be fun.

I rewatched the Rebel while eating lunch. Game Winner was better than I thought. For a first race after a long layoff, it was really good, but he bounced against Roadster. GW is definitely a top contender.
 
I took a quick look at the entries for Saturday. The Pick 4 for races 9-12 (Derby) could be a fun bet. It looks like Instagrand may be a single and the 11th could be a 2/3 horse race. This could lead to a 5X1X3x7(Derby) would cost $52.50 and could pay well. If you cut it down to 5X1X2X7 would only cost $35.

If someone other than the top two win the Derby. it could pay $1000 or more.
 
Great catch....Thanks.

That changes a lot...It's very Mandella to put the horse above race. He's really protective of his horses which is why he's won nearly $150M in purses.

Back to the drawing board...May like Maximum Security more now.

EDIT:

There could be one top benefiting by this scratch- Game Winner. Some tracks put the Also eligible horse in the outside post, some replace the scratched horse's post position. If they do the former here, Game Winner moves to #15 which doesn't sound much better than being in #16, but it is here.

At Churchill, they have two starting gates. The first one has 14 slots. The other has the next 6 horses. By being in #14 or #15, you don't have a horse right next to you. That added space helps a lot.

Let's see what happens.

2nd EDIT: Bodexpress will go into the #20 slot moving Game Winner to #15. He is now the 9/2 ML favorite.

There's no real speed between Game Winner and Maximum Security. This could be a dream trip for Game Winner.
 
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I'm a little disappointed in the names this year. I like to pick the horse based strictly on the names, like buying wine only based on the label.
 
Ball State Deac said:
I'm a little disappointed in the names this year. I like to pick the horse based strictly on the names, like buying wine only based on the label.
Click to expand...

You've got twin girls who are all too soon going to be teens together. How about War of Will(s) -the plural isn't part of the name, but you will be at War some of the time. :)
 
Here's an early iteration of my Pick 4 that ends with the KY Derby. It would cost $42:

Race 9 - 1,2,3,5,7,8,10
Race 10 - 10
Race 11- 2,12
Race 12 (Derby) - 1,6,7,8,16,17

This could change on Friday or Saturday, but it's a good start. Obviously, we'd be hoping for one of the longer prices in the 9th. Instagrand should win pretty easily in the 10th. Until a few weeks ago, he was a top tier contender for the Derby. Because of this, he will likely go off at 3/5 or so ($3.20 for a $2 bet).
 
From the second group, really like Vekoma and Spinoff for my trifecta longshots.
 
RJKarl said:
You've got twin girls who are all too soon going to be teens together. How about War of Will(s) -the plural isn't part of the name, but you will be at War some of the time. :)
Click to expand...

Seems like War of Willys would work too
 
Vekoma should get a really good trip.

There isn't a lot of early speed. Spinoff will need to clear the horses who will be stalking the lead and be on or near a reasonable pace. He could get lucky and get a piece.

I hope Churchill fixes a bad decision from the last couple of years to have a minimum bet of $1 for superfectas rather than the more useful $0.10 bet. It's been proven at track after track that by having lower minimum bets for exotics that the handle will be larger. Tracks around the country get much bigger pools for $0.50 Pick 4/5 than $2 Pick 6.

This also has worked in casinos. The penny and nickel slots are hugely profitable by convincing players they aren't gambling as much when the reality is each pull is a lot more.
 
RJKarl said:
Here's an early iteration of my Pick 4 that ends with the KY Derby. It would cost $42:

Race 9 - 1,2,3,5,7,8,10
Race 10 - 10
Race 11- 2,12
Race 12 (Derby) - 1,6,7,8,16,17
Click to expand...

No Improbable?
 
I didn't like his last race. But I still may include him. It would only cost $7 more. It might be a good way to hedge.

There's been a hook in CA for Baffert which is to bet the longest price Baffert horse when he has multiple in the race. It wins a lot. Improbable will be highest price Baffert horse.

Right now I'd put the odds at:

Game Winner 4/1
Roadster 9/2
Improbable 6/1
Tacitus 7/1
Maximum Security 8/1 (this is the wild card odds. if he drops to 5/1 -watch out.)

I'm trying to decide if I should add Improbable to the Pick 4 or a 3rd horse in the 11th, but that would cost a lot more than adding Improbable. Adding Improbable would mean 7x1x2x7= $49 vs. 7x1x3x6=$63.

It's likely I will add him.
 
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