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Kentucky Derby TODAY

RJ, you ever go to the races at Del Mar in the summer?
 
timthedeac said:
No Improbable?
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This the mythical bets for the expert form xpressbet.com:

$100 Wagering Strategy:
• $2 Trifecta Part Wheel: IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER, TACITUS with IMPROBABLE,
GAME WINNER, TACITUS with IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER, TACITUS,
WIN WIN WIN, ROADSTER, TAX, COUNTRY HOUSE ($60)
• $5 Exacta Box Key: IMPROBABLE with OMAHA BEACH, MAXIMUM SECURITY ($20)
• $20 WIN: IMPROBABLE ($20)

He like you :)
 
Jroc25 said:
RJ, you ever go to the races at Del Mar in the summer?
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Yes, I usually go a couple of times in summer and once in the fall.

The train is fun. A silly thing to watch before getting to the track is watching the ladies in their spiked high heels try to get up and down the very narrow, winding stairs of the English double-decker buses that take you from the train station to the track. :)

Definitely bring a flask or water bottle filled with a clear liquor. Drink prices are high and pours suck.

Are thinking about going this summer?
 
DeacsATS said:
Can't decide if Improbable is a great name or a terrible name for a race horse.

Also, is this the "Official" thread? I remember there was an "Official" thread last year:
https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/28006-Official-KY-Derby-Thread-with-post-positions?highlight=derby
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Biff was feeling left out and wanting attention. So, he created his BS thread.

Improbable could also be that there are about 15-20,000 foals each year. So, it's "Improbable" that he would be in the KY Derby or other classic races. I do have a $20 future book bet on him at 22/1 that I made before his first start of the year.
 
When will it rain on Derby?

As far as timing, a wave of showers is expected to move through in the morning followed by another storm system in the afternoon, with thunderstorms possible after 2 p.m., according to the weather service.

"The stream of moisture that has brought rounds of rain and thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Midwest will shift east on Friday and Saturday as high pressure over the Southeast retreats over the Atlantic Ocean," AccuWeather meteorologist Maura Kelly said. "A period of steadier rain is expected in Louisville on Saturday as the last of this moisture pushes through."

Here's an hour-by-hour look at rainfall potential for Saturday morning and evening, based on NWS data:

9 a.m. to 1 p.m. — 70% chance

2 p.m. to 7 p.m. — 72% chance (with 10-20% chance of thunderstorms)

8 p.m. to 2 a.m. — 35% chance

More: After 3 straight rainy Kentucky Derbys, can we catch a break already?

Reaugh said showers may linger in the Louisville area until 8 p.m.

According to the weather service, it will otherwise be mostly cloudy with a high near 69 degrees and low around 52 degrees on Louisville’s biggest day of the year.

Rain or shine, a massive crowd will undoubtedly still flock to Churchill Downs for the most prestigious horse race in the world.

_____________________________

If it is a swamp, you want your horses to be off the rail. The crown of the track (about 7-9 lanes off the rail) will be the driest part and seems to propel horses.
 
Andy Beyer picked Improbable.

FWIW, Blue Horseshoe likes Champagne Anyone (#10) in the Oaks tomorrow.

 
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There's a possibility that Haikal may be scratched. He dinged himself. If this happens, Game Winner and Roadster will move to posts 14&15 respectively. This would be an advantage for Baffert.

If Improbable clears the inside horses, he could get a dream trip. An all Baffert trifecta is definitely not out of the question.
 
RJKarl said:
Yes, I usually go a couple of times in summer and once in the fall.

The train is fun. A silly thing to watch before getting to the track is watching the ladies in their spiked high heels try to get up and down the very narrow, winding stairs of the English double-decker buses that take you from the train station to the track. :)

Definitely bring a flask or water bottle filled with a clear liquor. Drink prices are high and pours suck.

Are thinking about going this summer?
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I used to go a lot when I lived in San Diego. Always a great time & free concerts Friday & Saturday after the races end.
 
Let's get some bets together- Remember to look back tomorrow due to potential bad weather. The bad weather could have the biggest impact on the Pick 4 due to having two races on the turf. If it is bad, those races could be moved to the dirt and have lots of scratches. It would have a smaller impact on the Derby.

It does look like the Derby only has a $1 superfecta, That will impact make that be dramatically.

I'll put the two or three posts together later.

Let's go:

Pick 4 - $49

Race 9 - 1,2,3,5,7,8,10
Race 10 - 10
Race 11- 2,12
Race 12 (Derby) - 1,5, 6,7,8,16,17

$5 Exacta Box - War of Will/Maximum Security/Game Winner/Roadster - Total Bet $30
$3 Exacta Box - Improbable with WOW/MS/GW/Roadster - Total Bet $18

$0.50 Tri Key Boxes - WOW/MS/GW/Roadster over all of those and Improbable/Tacitus/Vekoma - each bet is $15- Total Bet $60
$0.50 Tri Box -WOW/MS/GW/Roadster (yes, I have that above, but I want it for $1 total) - Total Bet $12

So far, that is $169.

I'll be doing my win bets and a few more later on.
 
For those who will be betting all day. Here are a couple of ideas for other races if the weather is bad:

Race 2 - #2 is 2 for 2 in the slop. #6, the favorite, is a much better horse. This could be a nice $30-50 exacta box.

Race 6 - #3 is not as good as the other horses, but loves the slop 3 races-2 wins and a second. She also love Churchill Down 5 races -2 wins/2 seconds. She's not as good as #7 or #5, but could be a good box for exactas and tris at 12-1 or more.
 
Mike Smith has replaced Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. KY has an interesting rule. Once a jockey is officially named to ride a horse, he/she is entitled to be paid what he/she would have gotten had they rode. Lanerie can opt not to be paid in hopes to ride for that owner again, but he isn't obligated to give any money back.

The track has dried out today and is lightning fast.
 
I did make a couple of Oaks/Derby doubles. They weren't paying enough to bet all of them. I bet Bellafina with WOW/MS/GW/Roadster with a smaller saver bet with Improbable.

If you want to have some fun for $5, you could bet #12 Street Band with those five horses tomorrow. Street Band is about 25/1 now. Her trainer Larry Jones has won the KY Oaks about five times I'd guess.
 
With $1M bet, Maximum Security is the favorite at 9/2. Depending on your idea, Game Winner at 6-1 and Roadster at 9-1 seem to be good prices.

The Game Winner/Roadster exacta is paying about $88 either way. That's good.

In the morning, we'll see the weather and make a few more bets.

Good luck all!
 
Today's weather:

"A few showers early becoming a steady rain for the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 67F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
WIND"

There has been $4.2M bet thus fax, Maximum Security is still the favorite at 9-2. Tacitus and Improbable are 5-1. Game Winner is 6-1 and Roadster is 10-1.
 
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