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Chat Thread 2021: huge historic day today ! you are living history congrats !

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Donkey Deac Doug said:
Hey guys, I'm getting pretty fucking worried about runaway inflation.

You guys know that I'm involved in construction, and my lumber guy just told me that I need to get lumber this month because their reorder is coming up and lumber prices are set to skyrocket (double or triple). Lumber is already about 3-5x what it cost 2 years ago.

This is all anecdote, but I'm hearing reports of some fucking insane localized inflation in some of the cities.

Anyone else got a recent experience like this?
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There is a really interesting article in the Economist from a week or two ago about this... The gist of it is that nobody has any fucking clue what is going to happen with inflation. Title was "Prognostication and prophecy: How strong is the case that inflation is about to return?"

One of the topics in there that I found interesting is that a huge chunk of the US has never really lived through a high inflation cycle (70s and early 80s) and therefore has no idea how much it fucking blows. The idea of double-digit inflation is terrifying to me, but I don't see enough growth for it to happen anytime soon.

The lumber stuff is due to a lot of supply chain issues... Same with the sizable runs we've seen in Steel & Aluminum. The problem is that every cycle is different.

Another thing that is playing into it is that the dollar is collapsing (with no end in sight)... I think that'll eventually hurt our markets relative to others (especially Asia). There is going to be better growth there vs. here over the next few years (regardless of a post-COVID US bounce).
 
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Lumber isn't the backbone of the economy, but it's a huge part of housing; which is a fucking crucial sector right now.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
Hey guys, I'm getting pretty fucking worried about runaway inflation.

You guys know that I'm involved in construction, and my lumber guy just told me that I need to get lumber this month because their reorder is coming up and lumber prices are set to skyrocket (double or triple). Lumber is already about 3-5x what it cost 2 years ago.

This is all anecdote, but I'm hearing reports of some fucking insane localized inflation in some of the cities.

Anyone else got a recent experience like this?
Click to expand...

We're going to remodel our kitchen/first floor and our contractor said the same to us (luckily, cabinets are not impacted according to him??). Not sure I understand why, but that's the only wood I need (that's what your mom said)
 
DeacsATS said:
There is a really interesting article in the Economist from a week or two ago about this... The gist of it is that nobody has any fucking clue what is going to happen with inflation. Title was "Prognostication and prophecy: How strong is the case that inflation is about to return?"

One of the topics in there that I found interesting is that a huge chunk of the US has never really lived through a high inflation cycle (70s and early 80s) and therefore has no idea how much it fucking blows. The idea of double-digit inflation is terrifying to me, but I don't see enough growth for it to happen anytime soon.

The lumber stuff is due to a lot of supply chain issues... Same with the sizable runs we've seen in Steel & Aluminum. The problem is that every cycle is different.

Another thing that is playing into it is that the dollar is collapsing (with no end in sight)... I think that'll eventually hurt our markets relative to others (especially Asia). There is going to be better growth there vs. here over the next few years (regardless of a post-COVID US bounce).
Click to expand...

I've done what I can to hardened my investments against inflation, but at the cost of exposing the first three feet of my colon to any deflationary action. A switch to modest deflation right now would fuck me harder than the collective board fucks Mako's mom's warm sweet poon.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
Lumber isn't the backbone of the economy, but it's a huge part of housing; which is a fucking crucial sector right now.
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Yeah, but the builders have mostly been able to pass the costs along to consumers, who don't give a shit because of all-time low mortgage rates.

It's all going to end badly, but I think we've got a strong spring selling season coming before that happens.

We're actually building a house right now... We're beyond the stage where lumber matters, but the supply chain issues are also a concern in other areas of housing. Applicances, for example, are in very short supply and that is causing some delays for builders. Same goes for garage doors, of all things.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
I've done what I can to hardened my investments against inflation, but at the cost of exposing the first three feet of my colon to any deflationary action. A switch to modest deflation right now would fuck me harder than the collective board fucks Mako's mom's warm sweet poon.
Click to expand...

Again, I have no fucking clue what is going on, but continued deflation is probably just as legit a concern as inflation is right now... Especially as you stretch out your time horizon. Difficult to see how interest rates don't stay super low in what is going to be a low growth environment for the foreseeable future (again, I'm ignoring a post-COVID bounce).
 
DeacsATS said:
Yeah, but the builders have mostly been able to pass the costs along to consumers, who don't give a shit because of all-time low mortgage rates.

It's all going to end badly, but I think we've got a strong spring selling season coming before that happens.

We're actually building a house right now... We're beyond the stage where lumber matters, but the supply chain issues are also a concern in other areas of housing. Applicances, for example, are in very short supply and that is causing some delays for builders. Same goes for garage doors, of all things.
Click to expand...

What's seemingly crazy is how valuable old homes are now. I can build a new home for about $135/sqft. Three ish years ago, same home was like 105/sq ft. Ten years ago, 95ish

The increase in my cost to build a new home makes me look at my 7-10 year old rentals and say, fuck me, this thing is worth way more than it should be now.
 
Mako’s calendar doesn’t mean shit until he posts the pictures on here like (name escapes me) but gay poster dressed in leather and chains did. Then he also needs to show up in all other ACC forums, especially packpride.
 
DeacsATS said:
Again, I have no fucking clue what is going on, but continued deflation is probably just as legit a concern as inflation is right now... Especially as you stretch out your time horizon. Difficult to see how interest rates don't stay super low in what is going to be a low growth environment for the foreseeable future (again, I'm ignoring a post-COVID bounce).
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Bro, we need to get a beer.
 
Brasky do you talk about the American Colonization Society and/or Lincoln's views on emigration when you teach slavery/Civil War?
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Mako’s calendar doesn’t mean shit until he posts the pictures on here like (name escapes me) but gay poster dressed in leather and chains did. Then he also needs to show up in all other ACC forums, especially packpride.
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I remember that dude being cool as hell. And he worked like a total son of a b**** to make himself have a phenomenal body for that photo shoot. I give that dude huge props. DieHardDeac?
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
I've done what I can to hardened my investments against inflation, but at the cost of exposing the first three feet of my colon to any deflationary action. A switch to modest deflation right now would fuck me harder than the collective board fucks Mako's mom's warm sweet poon.
Click to expand...

Kind of weak after 40 minutes of talking about wood inflation. I was expecting more.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Mako’s calendar doesn’t mean shit until he posts the pictures on here like (name escapes me) but gay poster dressed in leather and chains did. Then he also needs to show up in all other ACC forums, especially packpride.
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That dude is a legend. I'm a tenth of the man he is.
 
The housing market is absurd right now. We just got the appraisal done for our refi and the paper value of our house is up 20% since we bought 2.5 years ago. We have a few friends who are looking to buy and you pretty much just have to decide instantly and go above ask to even have a chance. Glad I’m not part of it.
 
TenaciousKory said:
Brasky do you talk about the American Colonization Society and/or Lincoln's views on emigration when you teach slavery/Civil War?
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In the past I have talked about ACS, but this semester we've had 40% of the normal instruction time so I'll be honest, it got cut. As did any real deep dive into Lincoln. They moved finals up two weeks to get them finished before the break, so we only had two weeks to cover the build up to the Civil War, the war, and Reconstruction. I focused on the reasons for the war, why the North won and why Reconstruction was a failure. That was all we had time for.
 
TownieDeac said:
You do seem opposed to teaching an even-handed curriculum. I doubt you are a racist.
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Point is, when you're teaching a 500-year American History survey course, you don't have time to truly examine all sides of an an event and the prevailing attitudes in a contemporaneous manner. Whatever additional facts and source material Brasky provides can't help but be cherrypicked, despite his intentions. Yes, critical examination of the events is important, but you have to realize that the students are likely to walk away with the conclusions to which the teacher teaches. And in Brasky's case, we know he has a rather cynical outlook.
 
Paul Hogan said:
Point is, when you're teaching a 500-year American History survey course, you don't have time to truly examine all sides of an an event and the prevailing attitudes in a contemporaneous manner. Whatever additional facts and source material Brasky provides can't help but be cherrypicked, despite his intentions. Yes, critical examination of the events is important, but you have to realize that the students are likely to walk away with the conclusions to which the teacher teaches. And in Brasky's case, we know he has a rather cynical outlook.
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I guess i don't understand the salt. It's hard to imagine that younger americans gain more of a benefit from a rosier portrayal of Jackson and his legacy than a less rosy portrayal
 
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