DeacsATS
Sam "Ace" Rothstein
Hey guys, I'm getting pretty fucking worried about runaway inflation.
You guys know that I'm involved in construction, and my lumber guy just told me that I need to get lumber this month because their reorder is coming up and lumber prices are set to skyrocket (double or triple). Lumber is already about 3-5x what it cost 2 years ago.
This is all anecdote, but I'm hearing reports of some fucking insane localized inflation in some of the cities.
Anyone else got a recent experience like this?
There is a really interesting article in the Economist from a week or two ago about this... The gist of it is that nobody has any fucking clue what is going to happen with inflation. Title was "Prognostication and prophecy: How strong is the case that inflation is about to return?"
One of the topics in there that I found interesting is that a huge chunk of the US has never really lived through a high inflation cycle (70s and early 80s) and therefore has no idea how much it fucking blows. The idea of double-digit inflation is terrifying to me, but I don't see enough growth for it to happen anytime soon.
The lumber stuff is due to a lot of supply chain issues... Same with the sizable runs we've seen in Steel & Aluminum. The problem is that every cycle is different.
Another thing that is playing into it is that the dollar is collapsing (with no end in sight)... I think that'll eventually hurt our markets relative to others (especially Asia). There is going to be better growth there vs. here over the next few years (regardless of a post-COVID US bounce).
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