RChildress107
Well-known member
First of all there will be no en banc in the 6th Circuit, the parties challenging the law have said they are going straight to SCOTUS.
Second, the liberals will almost definitely vote to grant cert because they don't want their legacy to be ones who allowed same-sex marriage bans to stand in four states.
And, I don't think there is much risk for them, because I can't see any possible way that the court doesn't rule in favor of same sex marriage after their actions in denying cert in the other cases allowed same sex marriage to start in a bunch of states. This is a bell that won't be unrung.
Keep in mind that it took at least six votes to deny cert for the ssm cases. And while they weren't rulings on the merits, because of the stays that were in place pending the appeals to SCOTUS, the at least six justices that voted to deny cert were fully aware that by doing so they were going to allow hundreds of gay marriages to take place before they ever had a chance to consider the issue again.
Assuming that Scalia, Thomas and Alito voted to grant cert in those earlier cases, you cannot possibly convince me both Kennedy (a reliable vote in favor of gay rights) and Roberts (a young justice who is keenly aware of not being on the wrong side of history) after voting to deny cert earlier and allow gay marriages to start will turn around and vote against same sex marriage, leaving all of the people who were married in the interim in limbo. If the court was going to rule in favor of the same sex marriage bans, it would have taken one of the first batch of cases, rather than allowing same sex marriage to start, waiting for a circuit split (that may never have come) and then turning around and ruling against same sex marriage later.
RJKarl is the only poster i've seen seriously entertain the possibility that the Court might rule against allowing same sex marriage. I'm simply talking about timing. I don't think they hear arguments until the next term. They wouldn't even have to deny cert from the 6th circuit case in order to do so. At minimum I think they wait for the 5th Circuit (hearing arguments in January) to weigh in.