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When will marriage equality hit the Supreme Court?

?

  • 2014

    Votes: 1 4.2%

  • 2015

    Votes: 12 50.0%

  • 2016

    Votes: 6 25.0%

  • Later/never

    Votes: 5 20.8%
  • Total voters
    24
Depends what you mean by "hit the supreme court."

I think they will grant cert next year and issue an opinion in 2016. I'm guessing they will wait on the 5th Circuit to weigh in (and any other Circuit's with cases pending that I am unaware of) before taking up the issue. The 5th Circuit hears arguments in January.
 
Seems like 2016 if ever. If the 6th Circuit ruling stands I think they have to take a case on it. They don't seem to be granting cert this year so they'll grant it next year and then 2016 will be when the opinion issues.
 
I don't think any of the current justices are gay, let alone planning to get gay married. I don't know though. Maybe Thomas and Scalia are planning something together.
 
I would have picked 2017 over 2015 due the SC not wanting itself to be a major issue in the presidential campaign. If they vote against marriage equality in 2016, there could be a Dem landslide in every purple state. I don't think they want that to happen.

Roberts does not want to become one of the least powerful and most meaningless Chief Justice's in US history. With a Dem WH and Senate and the 83+YOs Scalia and Kennedy ready to leave the Court, the next twenty years of Roberts' tenure would logically be in a 6-3 minority.

If that happens, Roberts be as irrelevant as any CJ in the past 100 years. What will be even worse for his legacy is that many of his major rulings could easily be overturned.

I believe that seeing the groundswell in state after state Roberts may actually vote for marriage equality to avoid becoming the Supreme Court's Mr. Irrelevant.
 
RJKarl said:
I would have picked 2017 over 2015 due the SC not wanting itself to be a major issue in the presidential campaign. If they vote against marriage equality in 2016, there could be a Dem landslide in every purple state. I don't think they want that to happen.

Roberts does not want to become one of the least powerful and most meaningless Chief Justice's in US history. With a Dem WH and Senate and the 83+YOs Scalia and Kennedy ready to leave the Court, the next twenty years of Roberts' tenure would logically be in a 6-3 minority.

If that happens, Roberts be as irrelevant as any CJ in the past 100 years. What will be even worse for his legacy is that many of his major rulings could easily be overturned.

I believe that seeing the groundswell in state after state Roberts may actually vote for marriage equality to avoid becoming the Supreme Court's Mr. Irrelevant.
Click to expand...

Thanks for sharing your great insight on the history and operation of the Supreme Court! Where did you learn all that?
 
SCOTUS is not going to rule against gay marriage.
 
RJKarl said:
I hope they don't. Am I right to think they will try to find any excuse not to have to make the ruling?
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Not exactly. I think at least some of the conservative bloc (including Kennedy on this one) do not want to allow bans on same sex marriage to continue but honestly think the question is best decided outside of the courts.

The tide is clearly moving in the right direction but I imagine Roberts and Kennedy in particular would prefer to not have to make the ruling until it's a little further along. Roberts is mindful of his legacy though and likely knows he can only delay this opinion for so long. I also thinks he would prefer not to have a 5-4 split on this one.

So basically they will find any excuse to delay the ruling as long as possible, but unless the 6th circuit reverse en banc and the 5th circuit strikes down state bans, I don't see how they avoid delaying longer than 2016.
 
RJKarl said:
I would have picked 2017 over 2015 due the SC not wanting itself to be a major issue in the presidential campaign. If they vote against marriage equality in 2016, there could be a Dem landslide in every purple state. I don't think they want that to happen.

Roberts does not want to become one of the least powerful and most meaningless Chief Justice's in US history. With a Dem WH and Senate and the 83+YOs Scalia and Kennedy ready to leave the Court, the next twenty years of Roberts' tenure would logically be in a 6-3 minority.

If that happens, Roberts be as irrelevant as any CJ in the past 100 years. What will be even worse for his legacy is that many of his major rulings could easily be overturned.

I believe that seeing the groundswell in state after state Roberts may actually vote for marriage equality to avoid becoming the Supreme Court's Mr. Irrelevant.
Click to expand...

How much did the recent court decisions affect the midterm elections?
 
They allowed voter suppression. We won't know people didn't vote because of them for a while and until after 2016.

We also saw how much money was spent on these elections by outside groups of unnamed donors.
 
RChildress107 said:
This.
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It's sadly predictable that you consciously neglect my statements when they don't allow you to act like an asshole:

"I would have picked 2017 over 2015 due the SC not wanting itself to be a major issue in the presidential campaign. If they vote against marriage equality in 2016, there could be a Dem landslide in every purple state. I don't think they want that to happen.


TWICE in the same paragraph, I said they wouldn't want to make that ruling. That's not enough for you.
 
RJKarl said:
I would have picked 2017 over 2015 due the SC not wanting itself to be a major issue in the presidential campaign. If they vote against marriage equality in 2016, there could be a Dem landslide in every purple state. I don't think they want that to happen.
Click to expand...

I wasn't going to harp on this post other than the dig at your lack of knowledge or education on this matter. However, since my agreement with Cav has you so up in arms...

The only way to interpret the quoted sentence is that you think the Supreme Court will wait until 2017 to decide this issue because the Supreme Court believes that if they vote against marriage equality in 2016 it will favor Dems in the election.

Setting aside the ridiculousness of assigning this thought process to the Supreme Court, the only reason for the Court to wait until 2017 under this logic is if they actually intended to vote against marriage equality. As Cav pointed out, this logic makes no sense because the Court is almost certainly not going to vote against marriage equality.

While the rest of your post cites reasons why Roberts might vote for marriage equality, your opening statement and the post overall express that you believe that the Supreme Court might actually vote against it. This belief is not absurd or unreasonable.

But as Cav pointed out, it is not very likely.
 
Don't worry though, the SCOTUS has granted writ to determine if subsidies for the ACA are constitutional or not with no circuit split, but they're just going to take their sweet ass time on this one.
 
Idk must be another? I just read two articles that said there's no split but the articles could be wrong. Tbh I haven't been following this line of lawsuits.
 
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