ITT: '03's finally bond after seeing eachother naked

[dartsndeacs]

From 8/7/15 on the Republicans from POTUS thread. I'll settle for $140. $1,400 is a little rich, a $10 bet seems more this board's style. I mean if you'd "gladly" do it, I assume you'll do it for any amount, but I can be generous, I just bet the big bucks cause I'm pretty much always right about everything.

So someone explain this to me: (I don't pay attention to politics)

This site has trump as the huge favorite by all polls (25% votes to Trump, next highest bush is 12%)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Then this site has the republican primary odds showing a landslide to bush (42% to be the nominee, Trump 7%)

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination



Which one of those is off?

You're understanding of the max value of a candidate's outreach?

huh? drop the snark, I wanna know

Oh, OK. Happy to do that then.


Trump appeals to a good number of Republican leaning people. Trump appalls a different subset of different Republican leaning people. Trump gets little support from independent leaning people and no support from Democrat leaning people.


Trump will max out at around 30-35% in the polls because he is so polarizing. The people that love him, love him. The people that hate him, hate him. How many people out there haven't formed an opinion on Donald Trump already? Not many and that is why his long term viability as a candidate is limited.


Bush, conversely, is much less combative, so easier for non-true believers to get behind him once the field dwindles from this ridiculous 17 to a more appropriate 4 or 5. Basically, in short, Trump has more "upsideability" (cheers, Bilas) for drawing from other candidates' supporters than Trump does. Less polarizing = more electable.

Thanks. Also found this which helps explain it from 2012



http://www.predictwise.com/taxonomy/term/32

I think both the "reasons" don't apply. Everyone already knows everything about Trump, I don't think more exposure will hurt him. I also doubt Bush has a chance vs Clinton. People love the drama and shitshow, Trump's only going to get more popular (I jumped on board 2-3 days ago). People will want a non-politician, and Hillary is weird looking. Trump looks like good betting value as a betting man. If he just comes up with 1-2 good overall specific ideas/plans, people will rally around them. #hotpoltakes #scoooop

Editor's note: #calledit

What are Trump's odds of being elected President?

William Hill has as 14:1 for president, and that predictwise site has him as 14:1 for the republican nomination.

Now I'm sad. I basically said the same thing but you just took my words as snark.


Your words hurt, palma. Your. Words. Hurt.

I'd gladly bet against those odds.

I'll go $100 on him winning the Republican nomination, $1400 if he does, $100 to you if he doesn't.

 

[BillBrasky]

Venmo or Paypal bud.

Don't Welch

 

[Milhouse]

pay that man his money

 

[deacs1995]

title word needs to be changed to WILL

 

[DeaconBrews]

Time to give back some of the ponzi scheme donations dv7, hope the hot tub is already paid for

 

[2&2 Slider To Leyritz]

Pay up, bloody wanker.

 

[Ball State Deac]

Hasn't won it yet. And did DV7 actually agree to your bet?

 

[ImTheCaptain]

doesn't really seem like he took the bet but he should probably pay anyway if Trump wins the nomination.

 

[Milhouse]

he didn't take the bet because he's merely a mouth runner

 

[ImTheCaptain]

he didn't take the bet because he's merely a mouth runner

well, yeah

 

[dmcheatw]

i went through that back and forth only to find the expected "ok" quote at the end from DV7 to be absent?

 

[BobStackFan4Life]

Hasn't won it yet. And did DV7 actually agree to your bet?

Yes, I see nowhere where dv7 agreed to palma's proposal. Some funny comments on here telling dv7 to pay up though.

 

[jhmd2000]

he didn't take the bet because he's merely a mouth runner

Nobody can say Millhouse isn't occasionally generous.

 

[bobknightfan]

Milhouse is one of the most astute...and sometimes acerbic...posters on the boards. The way he can frame a thought and drive his point home with such an economy of words is simply amazing. Definitely one of our best posters.

 

[deacvision7]

I have no recollection of ever agreeing to a bet with you, palma. I'm pretty sure I would remember putting up $1400 in a bet.

 

[BobStackFan4Life]

I have no recollection of ever agreeing to a bet with you, palma. I'm pretty sure I would remember putting up $1400 in a bet.

Maybe you were drunk and agreed to it and later deleted your post? That could happen. Will you at least send him $10?

 

[deacvision7]

If Trump wins the nomination I will send palma nothing because I didn't make a bet with him.

 

[dmcheatw]

after consideration, imma vote yes anyway for the lulz

 

[dartsndeacs]

For the record, my post taking you up on your "gladly bet against that" was the next post in the thread and 5 minutes afterwards, in case anyone was curious as to the timing of my quoted posts.

http://www.ogboards.com/forums/show...-for-POTUS-2016-Edition?p=2188181#post2188181

 

[BobStackFan4Life]

For the record, my post taking you up on your "gladly bet against that" was the next post in the thread and 5 minutes afterwards, in case anyone was curious as to the timing of my quoted posts.

http://www.ogboards.com/forums/show...-for-POTUS-2016-Edition?p=2188181#post2188181

Given this new information I'd like to change my vote.