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Republicans for POTUS, 2016 Edition

PhDeac said:
Hot takes from Politico.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-2015-winners-losers-121139.html#.VcTYKLejTOo

TLDR
1. Those more connected to the GOP thought Trump fared the worst. Those more independent thought he didn't hurt himself too much.
2. Democrats want Trump to succeed. They also liked Kasich a lot.
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Poll on Drudge says Trump’sthe winnerhttp://www.drudgereport.com/now.htm

Founder of Tea Party Nation not pleased
judson.jpg


Played well with the Red State crowd

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016...mance-played-for-the-red-state-crowd-20150807
 
The headline of the Tampa Bay Times today is "Trump Dominates."
 
If there really is a liberal media bias then most stories should be about Trump and Trump leading since that is the best possible scenario for liberals.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
If there really is a liberal media bias then most stories should be about Trump and Trump leading since that is the best possible scenario for liberals.
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This. PH said it best. Republicans want to see Trump put down. Crazies think he is entertaining and don't realize the damage he could actually do. Democrats are just dying to keep him in the race. So if there is a liberal bias, I would expect to see Trump benefit from it greatly. The best thing for the Democratic party is that Trump stay involved in this election. He can do nothing but harm the Republican brand.
 
Trump is succeeding because of the harm to the Republican brand.
 
Wrangor said:
This. PH said it best. Republicans want to see Trump put down. Crazies think he is entertaining and don't realize the damage he could actually do. Democrats are just dying to keep him in the race. So if there is a liberal bias, I would expect to see Trump benefit from it greatly. The best thing for the Democratic party is that Trump stay involved in this election. He can do nothing but harm the Republican brand.
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The GOP is just reaping what it sowed.
 
^^^ Blah blah blah. That is so tired. The condescension on this board is nauseating.
 
Wrangor said:
^^^ Blah blah blah. That is so tired. The condescension on this board is nauseating.
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Nobody that makes the posts like you do on your own thread about abortion issues can use that word to complain about others. You utter and complete hypocrite.
 
Oh, and by the way, you're steadfast and non-negotiable hardline views on the abortion issue is part of the reason that the GOP went so crazy and opened itself up to a Trump Presidential run. And why Palin was on the ticket in 2008 and Ryan in 2012.

But really, you complaining about others being condescending is just so rich. I don't need a ruling from Townie. It's not irony. But it damn sure is serendipitous coincidence.


Not my fault. I'm a Progressive Libertarian!
 
palmab03 said:
So someone explain this to me: (I don't pay attention to politics)

This site has trump as the huge favorite by all polls (25% votes to Trump, next highest bush is 12%)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Then this site has the republican primary odds showing a landslide to bush (42% to be the nominee, Trump 7%)

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination



Which one of those is off?
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You're understanding of the max value of a candidate's outreach?
 
palmab03 said:
So someone explain this to me: (I don't pay attention to politics)

This site has trump as the huge favorite by all polls (25% votes to Trump, next highest bush is 12%)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Then this site has the republican primary odds showing a landslide to bush (42% to be the nominee, Trump 7%)

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination



Which one of those is off?
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It's like watching a football game in the 1st quarter and seeing the underdog up 2 TDs.
 
palmab03 said:
huh? drop the snark, I wanna know
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Oh, OK. Happy to do that then.


Trump appeals to a good number of Republican leaning people. Trump appalls a different subset of different Republican leaning people. Trump gets little support from independent leaning people and no support from Democrat leaning people.


Trump will max out at around 30-35% in the polls because he is so polarizing. The people that love him, love him. The people that hate him, hate him. How many people out there haven't formed an opinion on Donald Trump already? Not many and that is why his long term viability as a candidate is limited.


Bush, conversely, is much less combative, so easier for non-true believers to get behind him once the field dwindles from this ridiculous 17 to a more appropriate 4 or 5. Basically, in short, Trump has more "upsideability" (cheers, Bilas) for drawing from other candidates' supporters than Trump does. Less polarizing = more electable.
 
Thanks. Also found this which helps explain it from 2012

The first reason that prediction markets (Intrade and Betfair are very close on these numbers) differ from the polls is that prediction markets take into consideration what the Republican voters will learn between now and their primary elections, while polls do not. Knowledgeable prediction market users are expecting voters to eventually learn what "David from NJ"already knows: that Mr. Huntsman is not in the Obama camp, but a standard Republican. The prediction markets are predicting that those unacceptability numbers will disappear in the next few months.

The second reason that prediction markets differ from the polls is that the prediction market users assume that Mr. Huntsman, in expectation, matches up the best against Mr. Obama in a general election. Mr. Obama has a 62.7% likelihood of winning the general election, but that number is related strongly to the likelihood of meeting his different potential Republican challengers. He is more likely to beat some challengers than others.
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http://www.predictwise.com/taxonomy/term/32

I think both the "reasons" don't apply. Everyone already knows everything about Trump, I don't think more exposure will hurt him. I also doubt Bush has a chance vs Clinton. People love the drama and shitshow, Trump's only going to get more popular (I jumped on board 2-3 days ago). People will want a non-politician, and Hillary is weird looking. Trump looks like good betting value as a betting man. If he just comes up with 1-2 good overall specific ideas/plans, people will rally around them. #hotpoltakes #scoooop
 
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palmab03 said:
Thanks. Also found this which helps explain it from 2012



http://www.predictwise.com/taxonomy/term/32

I think both the "reasons" don't apply. Everyone already knows everything about Trump, I don't think more exposure will hurt him. I also doubt Bush has a chance vs Clinton. People love the drama and shitshow, Trump's only going to get more popular (I jumped on board 2-3 days ago). People will want a non-politician, and Hillary is weird looking. Trump looks like good betting value as a betting man. If he just comes up with 1-2 good overall specific ideas/plans, people will rally around them. #hotpoltakes #scoooop
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What are Trump's odds of being elected President?
 
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