But the bigger point is that
this time was supposed to be different. The 2012 GOP nomination was supposed to be an aberration. It was a mess. The base seemed desperate to nominate anyone who wasn't Mitt Romney. At different times, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and, yes, Donald Trump, all led the polls.
The common explanation for the crazy, carousel-like nature of the campaign was that the Republican field was weak. The young Republican stars who thrilled Republicans in 2010 and 2012 — Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, and so on — weren't running. The 2012 GOP field was a throwback to the pre–Tea Party GOP. It represented a party that conservatives had already begun to replace. The new leaders — the leaders who felt current to the moment — weren't yet ready to run. But they would be soon.
"The past few election cycles have been grim,"
wrote Joseph Curl at the Washington Times. "The Republican Party went with Sen. John McCain because, well, it was his turn (just like in 1996 with Sen. Bob Dole). Pretty much the same thing in 2012 with Mitt Romney." But the future, he said, was bright. "Republicans are sitting on the deepest bench they've had in decades."