Bracketology 2017

[RJKarl]

Wait are telling me that looking at the distance between two teams in the human top 25 polls is not a very useful indicator of how those two teams would fare against one another?

Given the fact that the computer models can vary as dramatically due what the creator of the programs deems important, neither can say they are superior. The fact that both BPI and Kenpom give so much SOS advantage to the SEC shows a weakness in both.

 

[cheeseheads12]

it seems like people forget what happened last year to the big 12 in the NCAAT after the "experts" deemed them hands down the best conference last year. I'm sure we will see similar results once again with that conference

 

[wsc8521s]

No, no we would not.

We don't have anybody that can guard Nigel Williams-Goss, and Karnowski/Zach Collins would give John Collins fits.

"matchups"

 

[Deacsfan27]

Given the fact that the computer models can vary as dramatically due what the creator of the programs deems important, neither can say they are superior. The fact that both BPI and Kenpom give so much SOS advantage to the SEC shows a weakness in both.

Well this is untrue.

 

[RJKarl]

You're so right! A computer program that can manipulated by the owner is much more accurate than actual on-the-court reality.

 

[SpringChicken]

You're so right! A computer program that can manipulated by the owner is much more accurate than actual on-the-court reality.

Wait is that what you were talking about? I thought you were talking about what coaches and media types vote on, with no transparency whatsoever. My mistake.

 

[Deacsfan27]

You're so right! A computer program that can manipulated by the owner is much more accurate than actual on-the-court reality.

I don't really want to argue this again, so I'm going to stop after this, but when the sample size is 1 anything can happen.

The point of statistical models is to forecast and predict what is likely to happen over many different simulations.

Not exactly sure what we are even disagreeing on here because I have never said that a computer program is "much more accurate" than "on-the-court reality" because the models are reliant on the inputs that come from on the court.

 

[RJKarl]

Well this is untrue.

You can say it, but that doesn't make it true, There is no way the SEC deserves such a premium position in SOS. The teams simply aren't that good. If a factor that is so central to the rankings is wrong, you can't claim the program is as strong.

Of course, you also believe the computers when they tell you there is no such thing as a hot hand.

 

[RJKarl]

I don't really want to argue this again, so I'm going to stop after this, but when the sample size is 1 anything can happen.

The point of statistical models is to forecast and predict what is likely to happen over many different simulations.

Not exactly sure what we are even disagreeing on here because I have never said that a computer program is "much more accurate" than "on-the-court reality" because the models are reliant on the inputs that come from on the court.

How about a simple direct answer- if a team has played seven ranked teams and lost to all seven, and is playing another ranked team that was ranked as the second highest among those eight games, wouldn't beating that team be a "long shot"?

After all you have actual results not theoretical ones.

 

[Deacsfan27]

You can say it, but that doesn't make it true, There is no way the SEC deserves such a premium position in SOS. The teams simply aren't that good. If a factor that is so central to the rankings is wrong, you can't claim the program is as strong.

Of course, you also believe the computers when they tell you there is no such thing as a hot hand.

I'm not sure what you're arguing. The Big 12 is a much better conference than the SEC, and that is reflected in the computer rankings.

My initial point was that Florida played a much tougher out of conference SOS.

 

[RJKarl]

I'm not sure what you're arguing. The Big 12 is a much better conference than the SEC, and that is reflected in the computer rankings.

My initial point was that Florida played a much tougher out of conference SOS.

SOS is overall. This includes in the league. Overall, FL's schedule is nowhere near as tough as KU's and KU had a higher winning % against really good teams.

 

[Demonwolverine]

That would be our worst possible matchup.

We would be a 10-12 point underdog to the Zags on a neutral court.

Well, considering we've already lost on a neutral court to one of the number 1 seeds by 19, and to another at home (assuming Nova and UNC get 1 seeds) I'm not really sure how you come out thinking Gonzaga would be the "worst possible match up," even if they were 10 - 12 point favorites.

Not saying we would beat Gonzaga, but in the obviously hypothetical scenario where we would take over the 1 seed, I would be more than happy to give it a shot.

 

[Biff Tannen]

SOS is overall. This includes in the league. Overall, FL's schedule is nowhere near as tough as KU's and KU had a higher winning % against really good teams.

If only there were a way to extricate OOC SOS from the whole season.

 

[Deacsfan27]

Well, considering we've already lost on a neutral court to one of the number 1 seeds by 19, and to another at home, I'm not really sure how you come out thinking Gonzaga would be the "worst possible match up," even if they were 10 - 12 point favorites.

...because one or two game sample sizes, even in head-to-head matchups carry less weight than 30+ games from each team to base strengths and weaknesses on for a better overall view of each team.

 

[Demonwolverine]

...because one or two game sample sizes, even in head-to-head matchups carry less weight than 30+ games from each team to base strengths and weaknesses on for a better overall view of each team.

We've seen exactly how Nova would beat us like a drum, and I don't think there is much we could do to stop it from happening again. We can only theorize how Gonzaga would. I'd rather have a shot against the lesser known. From what it sounds like, there is a decent chance we get another shot at Nova if we make it out of the first round.

 

[Deacsfan27]

We've have seen exactly how Nova would beat us like a drum. We can only theorize how Gonzaga would. I'd rather have a shot against the lesser known. From what it sounds like, there is a decent chance we get another shot at Nova if we make it out of the first round.

If we played them again then we would likely be an 8-10 point dog. Think we were 12-14 last time, and we underperformed that line.

 

[SpringChicken]

Unrelated topic. Why would Dayton ever feature anything but eight contenders for 15/16 seeds? For example, here's Lunardi's bracket (just because unfortunately it's the first name I thought of).

Isn't saying that USC/Xavier would be 12 seeds and that Wake/Ill. St. would be 11 seeds admitting that you believe they are stronger teams than, for example, 16 seeds South Dakota St. and Texas Southern? Why not send those two to Dayton and adjust the other teams accordingly?

I have difficulty reconciling "well, Wake is barely qualified to make the tourney, let's make them win a play-in game" with "Wake would be better than 20 teams (4x 12-16 seeds) in the field of 64." I know this happens every year; is it part of the selection rules? Is it just to bolster the odds of a Cinderella story? Am I just totally missing something?

ETA: I understand a lot of those lower seeds aren't considered stronger, but just got in through winning their tournament. But that doesn't change my question as to why weaker teams get to avoid the play-in round. You're not exempt if you win your tournament, are you? For example, Lunardi has Mount St. Mary's in a play-in game in that bracket, and they won the NEC.

 

[buckets]

We're much better than we were when we played nova the first time

I feel like that fame was closer than the score

 

[Eagles_Legendz]

It wasn't but that was also Nova's A game. I've watched probably 90% of villanova's games this year and, offensively at least, that was as impressive as I've seen them.

 

[DeaconBrews]

I would rather play UF than Kansas after watching both teams. Canyon Barry is beat up and Egbunu is out for the year (got injured within the last few weeks).