I posted this in the Tunnels on a tax reform thread, but since Moonz started a thread for it I'll repost here.
Something else to consider: pretty much all economic growth in advanced economies at this point is coming from technology-based productivity gains. Populations in rich countries are stabilizing are even falling, which eliminates one primary source of economic growth (no new customers or workers). Capital stock is not increasing very much, probably because value is now held in computers, not steel mills. The next big boost in productivity is going to be driven by robots and AI. What happens to our society when self-driving cars and trucks happen?
I'll tell you what: a socio-political tsunami.
At the absolute height of coal mining, way back in 1923, there were 863,000 coal miners. in 1985 there were 175,000 or so, and now there are 65,000, so in recent memory 100,000 jobs were lost.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_m..._1985-2015.png That was enough to decimate an entire state's economy and flip it from Democrat to Republican, not to mention create the epicenter of opioid addiction and disability fraud. Politicians obsess over coal miners and the plight of the coal miner was a significant reason behind the election of one Donald J. Trump. In other words, those 100,000 jobs are a big effing deal.
Well there are 8,700,000 trucking-related jobs in the US. 3.5 million people, mostly men, drive trucks for a living. Another million or so people drive taxis and ubers.
https://medium.com/basic-income/self...k-b8507d9c5961
What are we going to do with 3 or 4 million unemployed men, who have no skills other than the ability to drive, and who are going to be totally unwilling and unequipped to take on jobs in the major growth industries (healthcare and tech)?
This is going to start hitting us right about the time these tax cuts have cranked the deficit to 100% of GDP and, I'm guessing, we're struggling to get out of the next recession.
Even assuming that all the rosy trickle down predictions are true this time unlike all the other times, does anybody thing that the jobs that are going to be created are going to be low-skill jobs that a few million uneducated drivers can jump right into?
I would suggest the US government keep its powder dry and its revenues plentiful, because this shit is coming and it is going to be a wild ride.