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Judge Moore accused of sexually assaulting/pursuing underage girls in his 30s

deactherunner said:
If the black turnout is higher than people thought, that moves all the benchmarks in Jones' favor, right?
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Yes. It moved it to a toss up. Basically black voters turned out big for Jones and it's up to white voters.

The NYT projections went from Jones +0.7 to Moore +0.7 back to toss up in the last 15 minutes. And it's back to Moore +0.7.

538 explains that Alabama is so segregated that every precinct swings the projections.
 
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It is estimated that about 115,000 people in AL don't have the required photo ID to vote. Could this give the seat to Moore?
 
NYT projections just swung back to Jones. This is nuts.

Moore is still up 4% on 538 with 31% in.
 
Now the NYT projections have Jones up 4.7 but down in the tally by 6%. Some predominantly white districts must have underperformed for Moore.
 
538 has a few counties that are 100%. The Moore counties went heavier for Moore than he needed. The Jones counties went heavier for Jones than he needed.
 
PhDeac said:
538 has a few counties that are 100%. The Moore counties went heavier for Moore than he needed. The Jones counties went heavier for Jones than he needed.
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Update: The Moore counties had a much lower turnout. Higher percentages, but lower turnout. Jones counties had higher turnout, but some had lower percentages.

What a weird race.
 
wakelaw13 said:
NYT giving me a lot of hope. Feels like a Wake game.
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Word.

I was just thinking today that the Trump election was the big nut punch for people who don't follow sports. I remember talking to people (mostly white women) who were just completely stunned and despondent. And I was thinking, "Yeah, I feel how I felt after the Panthers lost the Super Bowl."
 
Where is Sassy? The horse is his best feature.
 
Now NYT projections have a Jones blowout and 90% chance of winning. I think we can go ahead and ignore it for now.

It went to 80% chance in the time it took me to make that post.
 
Don't get your hopes up. We're a broken empire. Our time has come and gone.
 
PhDeac said:
Now NYT projections have a Jones blowout and 90% chance of winning. I think we can go ahead and ignore it for now.

It went to 80% chance in the time it took me to make that post.
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The key here is that a lot of urban precincts are yet to report (pro-Jones) while most rural precincts have already reported (pro-Moore). Jones has a lot of votes out there that are pretty solidly in his camp where Moore really doesn't.
 
PhDeac said:
Now NYT projections have a Jones blowout and 90% chance of winning. I think we can go ahead and ignore it for now.

It went to 80% chance in the time it took me to make that post.
Click to expand...

The key here is that a lot of urban precincts are yet to report (pro-Jones) while most rural precincts have already reported (pro-Moore). Jones has a lot of votes out there that are pretty solidly in his camp where Moore really doesn't.
 
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