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Judge Moore accused of sexually assaulting/pursuing underage girls in his 30s

If we're doing predictions:

1-pt win for Jones driven by a decreased GOP turnout plus a small percentage of GOP voters opting for a write-in over Moore.

ETA: I think Shelby endorsing writing in a candidate will play a bigger role than many are thinking.
 
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Moore by 3, 51-48. Both sides declare a victory even though neither should.
 
I think Jones by 5+, which would be a blowout of monumental proportions in AL
 
I feel like anyone predicting a Jones win really didn’t learn the lesson of last election. People, and a state like Alabama more so than others, are dumb as shit.
 
30 percent of exit poll today was black voters. Much higher than projected. Donald approval rating is 48 (disapproval also 48) among those polled in exits. That’s a shockingly low number for a Republican president to have in one of the reddest states in the nation
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
30 percent of exit poll today was black voters. Much higher than projected. Donald approval rating is 48 (disapproval also 48) among those polled in exits. That’s a shockingly low number for a Republican president to have in one of the reddest states in the nation
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Didn’t we also learn that exit polls don’t mean shit either?
 
Moore will win by 5. I have zero faith in Evangelical Christians (haha, hard to complete that with a straight face), Alabamans or wherever they overlap. They have zero morals and a true distortion of reality.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Didn’t we also learn that exit polls don’t mean shit either?
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Using it for demographics is generally fine - also important to look at the margin of error in the exits which are normally pretty large. Regardless the projected black turnout in models I saw was 17 percent or so. Even with a ten point margin of error 30 is high.
 
7% of Greene County went 117-8 for Jones. The early returns are funny.

81% black.

538 says the exit polls showed white turnout was 65% and 70% of white people went for Moore. 88% of non-white people went for Jones. That indicates an extremely close race.
 
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NYTimes projections giving Jones a slight advantage.

538 is way ahead. They have it even with 4% reporting.
 
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