Pilchard
Well-known member
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- May 3, 2011
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2017-8 Schedule: The Pack are 17-9 (7-6). Top 100 wins: #21 Arizona by 6; #4 Duke by 11; #15 Clemson by 1 , #84 WF by 9, #10 UNC in OT, #40 ND by 18 and #48 Cuse by 4. Top 100 losses: #12 Tennessee by 11, #15 Clemson by 16, #25 ND by 30, #1 UVA by 17, #38 Miami by 5, #42 VT by 10, #10 UNC by 7. The Pack is 11-3 at home with wins over ranked Duke and Clemson (kudos to Home Games In Harms Way as the Wes "the Wizard" Miller led UNCG to a 5 point win at State). State is 3-4 on the road.
Offense: State's strength is on offense (#8 in the ACC: WF is #13). They score points (90+ against Duke, Arizona; scored 100+ 3 times; 95 and 89 in two games against UNC), and they try to push tempo -- #3 in the conference. Their strength on offense is scoring in transition and taking the ball to the basket. 54% of their offense comes on 2 point shots (#2 in the ACC), and only 30% of their offense comes from 3s (#12 in the ACC). The Pack shoots 34% from 3 in conference games (#11 among ACC teams).
Defense: State is weak on defense (#13 in the ACC; WF is #11). State plays mostly man, and they pressure the ball forcing TOs on 19% of their defensive possessions (#4 in conference). Other than pressuring the ball, State is a bad defensive team. They are particularly bad at protecting the paint (#15 DFL in the ACC in 2 PT% defense 58% -- yikes; also DFL in the ACC in effective FG% defense). State also is foul prone (#12 in conference FTA per FGA); WF is also foul prone; so, this game could take a while.
Roster: State is small. They start: 6-0 (Braxton Beverly), 6-1 (Markell Johnson), 6-3 (Allerik Freeman), 6-6 (Torin Dorn), 7-0 (Yurtseven). State plays with an 8 or 9 man rotation; their primary bench players is guards Sam Hunt (6-2 - hit 4 threes at Cuse) and Lavar Batts (6-2) and big men, Lennard Freeman 6-8 and Abu (6-8 - only played 5 minutes at Cuse). Yurtseven, Dorn, and Freeman all make 60% of their 2 point shots. Yurtseven can also hit the 3 (48%).
Bottom Line: KP projects an 81-80 WF win. The Pack are coming off a nice road win at Cuse, and have played themselves on to the NCAA tourney bubble; hard to believe, but this may be the Pack's toughest remaining game (they finish with BC and FSU at home; GT away and then L'ville at home). Really important that WF does not give up easy baskets on TOs (WF is actually #4 in the conference in best offensive TO% in ACC games), that WF defends the lane and doesn't give up easy baskets. When State is forced to play half court basketball (against UVA, ND and @Clemson), they have struggled. Would help if Moore can stay out of foul trouble and win the matchup with Yurtseven. WF gave away the game at State as WF had a 3 point lead late, but managed to go scoreless over the last 2:30. Like this matchup for WF, and maybe the team is playing with a little more confidence after the double digit win on Wednesday.
Offense: State's strength is on offense (#8 in the ACC: WF is #13). They score points (90+ against Duke, Arizona; scored 100+ 3 times; 95 and 89 in two games against UNC), and they try to push tempo -- #3 in the conference. Their strength on offense is scoring in transition and taking the ball to the basket. 54% of their offense comes on 2 point shots (#2 in the ACC), and only 30% of their offense comes from 3s (#12 in the ACC). The Pack shoots 34% from 3 in conference games (#11 among ACC teams).
Defense: State is weak on defense (#13 in the ACC; WF is #11). State plays mostly man, and they pressure the ball forcing TOs on 19% of their defensive possessions (#4 in conference). Other than pressuring the ball, State is a bad defensive team. They are particularly bad at protecting the paint (#15 DFL in the ACC in 2 PT% defense 58% -- yikes; also DFL in the ACC in effective FG% defense). State also is foul prone (#12 in conference FTA per FGA); WF is also foul prone; so, this game could take a while.
Roster: State is small. They start: 6-0 (Braxton Beverly), 6-1 (Markell Johnson), 6-3 (Allerik Freeman), 6-6 (Torin Dorn), 7-0 (Yurtseven). State plays with an 8 or 9 man rotation; their primary bench players is guards Sam Hunt (6-2 - hit 4 threes at Cuse) and Lavar Batts (6-2) and big men, Lennard Freeman 6-8 and Abu (6-8 - only played 5 minutes at Cuse). Yurtseven, Dorn, and Freeman all make 60% of their 2 point shots. Yurtseven can also hit the 3 (48%).
Bottom Line: KP projects an 81-80 WF win. The Pack are coming off a nice road win at Cuse, and have played themselves on to the NCAA tourney bubble; hard to believe, but this may be the Pack's toughest remaining game (they finish with BC and FSU at home; GT away and then L'ville at home). Really important that WF does not give up easy baskets on TOs (WF is actually #4 in the conference in best offensive TO% in ACC games), that WF defends the lane and doesn't give up easy baskets. When State is forced to play half court basketball (against UVA, ND and @Clemson), they have struggled. Would help if Moore can stay out of foul trouble and win the matchup with Yurtseven. WF gave away the game at State as WF had a 3 point lead late, but managed to go scoreless over the last 2:30. Like this matchup for WF, and maybe the team is playing with a little more confidence after the double digit win on Wednesday.
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