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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

Early departures hurt so much because we got nothing from so many recruits. You can’t blame that on [Redacted] in year 4, especially given the relative strength of Manning’s first two classes.
 
Speaking of averages, just plugged the numbers in and it looks like Wilbekin just missed edging out Robert Siler for 16th all-time in 3P shooting proficiency. One more three and Mitchell gets to 38.82% for his 4 years instead of 38.63%.

But, and this isn't necessarily a knock on Wilbkein, has there been another Wake player in history who was essentially the same player for 4 years with little to no deviation??

Look at this:

2014-15 Wake Forest ACC 29 26 815 65 179 .363 16 52 .308 49 127 .386 30 41 .732 10 57 67 47 31 2 26 51 209
2015-16 Wake Forest ACC 31 30 875 71 206 .345 21 59 .356 50 147 .340 34 40 .850 9 52 61 42 18 1 18 66 226
2016-17 Wake Forest ACC 32 10 792 63 177 .356 16 61 .262 47 116 .405 50 56 .893 5 42 47 49 25 2 21 59 223
2017-18 Wake Forest ACC 27 23 714 73 185 .395 22 65 .338 51 120 .425 34 42 .810 10 53 63 39 17 0 19 49 231
Career Wake Forest 119 89 3196 272 747 .364 75 237 .316 197 510 .386 148 179 .827 34 204 238 177 91 5 84 225 889

He averaged almost without exception 7.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 t/o pg and roughly 49 3PM per game. That would seem pretty hard to do for any player that played pretty much the same minutes for 4 years straight, although he did play his fewest last season per game (24.75), due to Arians.
 
Strickland33 said:
Early departures hurt so much because we got nothing from so many recruits. You can’t blame that on [name redacted] in year 4, especially given the relative strength of Manning’s first two classes.
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The "[Redacted] left us in an impossible hole" argument ignores that [Redacted] posted his best W-L record in his last year and left us with the best two players he had recruited as upper classmen. Does anyone have KP subscription that can tell us what our EOY ranking has been the last 8 years? I thought that was trending up for [Redacted] as well, but I don't recall for sure.
 
Strickland33 said:
Early departures hurt so much because we got nothing from so many recruits. You can’t blame that on [Redacted] in year 4, especially given the relative strength of Manning’s first two classes.
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This point was one of Disco Dan's weakest, in my opinion. Rebuilds are called rebuilds because building depth takes time. Getting one great player that will obviously start for 3 or 4 years is hard enough for an irrelevant team. Convincing a good player to join a program where they will be a backup for most, if not all of their career is much harder when you suck.

Even great teams have bad recruiting years. If the Childress class is an example of Manning's worst possible recruiting class, that's on par with really good ACC programs. He just has to surround it with the Collins/Crawford/Brown/Hoard/Dinos types consistently. UVA just had a worse recruiting year than Manning's worst, but it came after a fantastic recruiting year. If you're not UNC or Duke it's hard to get great players to ride the bench even for good programs. If you can't break the recruiting slump with some elite classes you end up like BC or GaTech, bouncing around the bottom quarter of the ACC year after year with one good player popping up every now and then.
 
RacerDeac said:
The "[Redacted] left us in an impossible hole" argument ignores that [Redacted] posted his best W-L record in his last year and left us with the best two players he had recruited as upper classmen. Does anyone have KP subscription that can tell us what our EOY ranking has been the last 8 years? I thought that was trending up for [Redacted] as well, but I don't recall for sure.
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Yeah, if Manning could just get himself into a position where he had players like Devin Thomas and CCM leading the team everything would be good again.
 
DCDeac said:
This point was one of Disco Dan's weakest, in my opinion. Rebuilds are called rebuilds because building depth takes time. Getting one great player that will obviously start for 3 or 4 years is hard enough for an irrelevant team. Convincing a good player to join a program where they will be a backup for most, if not all of their career is much harder when you suck.

Even great teams have bad recruiting years. If the Childress class is an example of Manning's worst possible recruiting class, that's on par with really good ACC programs. He just has to surround it with the Collins/Crawford/Brown/Hoard/Dinos types consistently. UVA just had a worse recruiting year than Manning's worst, but it came after a fantastic recruiting year. If you're not UNC or Duke it's hard to get great players to ride the bench even for good programs. If you can't break the recruiting slump with some elite classes you end up like BC or GaTech, bouncing around the bottom quarter of the ACC year after year with one good player popping up every now and then.
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How much time? How do you explain BC? Texas Tech? TCU? Clemson?
 
RacerDeac said:
The "[name redacted] left us in an impossible hole" argument ignores that [name redacted] posted his best W-L record in his last year and left us with the best two players he had recruited as upper classmen. Does anyone have KP subscription that can tell us what our EOY ranking has been the last 8 years? I thought that was trending up for [name redacted] as well, but I don't recall for sure.
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Dude, you're right. Bzz had it moving in the right direction. So you're saying Wellman should have given him more time!
 
MichDeac25 said:
Dude, you're right. Bzz had it moving in the right direction. So you're saying Wellman should have given him more time!
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I specifically remember a few holdouts making that argument. Not all that different from the argument you're making now for Manning. My point is that we went downhill the season after [name redacted] left.
 
Strickland33 said:
How much time? How do you explain BC? Texas Tech? TCU? Clemson?
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Brownell has had eight years at Clemson. He failed to make The Dance for six consecutive years.

BC won't Dance this year. Why are they a model?
 
RacerDeac said:
I specifically remember a few holdouts making that argument. Not all that different from the argument you're making now for Manning. My point is that we went downhill the season after [name redacted] left.
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Here's a big difference, Bzz couldn't recruit his way out of a paper bag. Manning has, even if this year was a setback.
 
Why the Deac Not said:
Looking at just the composite rankings and averaging their "stars", the 18 Manning recruits have averaged 3.5 stars...and that's perhaps being a bit generous giving Chill & SJM 3.5 stars, Hoard 5, since that seems borderline depending on whose service you're looking at, and the fact that Lewis was a 4* potential, but may actually be an alien living in Area 51 at this point.

So the ranking say we should be very much average, but by what standard? Kenpom? Is 90th average for a P5 school?? Methinks not. Avg by the ACC standard? Apparently not!!
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Out of those 18 players, we have a total of 6 that have averaged at least 9 ppg in a season over Danny's 4 years. Not sure how a 1 in 3 ratio works out relative to other ACC programs, but that seems a little bit on the shy side considering only Brown and Hoard look to be good enough to average 8 ppg or more. In our best season, we had roughly 9 guys that averaged roughly 9 ppg or better, and two were transfers.

Assuming Woods is gone, how realistic is it to think we can get 75 or 76 ppg from Craw, Moore, Sarr, Hoard, Brown and Childress? Asking a lot of Mucius and Mitchell to really step up and plug that 10 or 11 ppg gap (assumes 16.5, 14.5, 10, 9, 8 & 7 ppg for Craw, Moore, Chill, Brown, Hoard & Sarr, respectively. I'm being conservative, but I think it's pretty realistic. Seems like an extra heavy load for two frosh and two sophs to carry. But we shall see.
 
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B fucking C has two acc tournament wins this year. Wake has two since the 2007-2008 season. Holy shit
 
RJKarl said:
Brownell has had eight years at Clemson. He failed to make The Dance for six consecutive years.

BC won't Dance this year. Why are they a model?
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Okay take Clemson out and let me know your thoughts on the other schools. What do they have that we don’t (besides good coaching)?

Also BC is better than we are. By a lot. And it’s not even close. And that should be saying something.
 
One year they are better. We were much better than they were last year and they won't make The Dance this year barring more wins.

They get a nice player in Hamilton (who is ranked basically the same as Muscius) and we add Hoard in addition to Muscius.

If everyone come back for both, let's see.

When shown you are wrong about Clemson, you just throw it away like you never said. It is your MO.
 
RJKarl said:
One year they are better. We were much better than they were last year and they won't make The Dance this year barring more wins.

They get a nice player in Hamilton (who is ranked basically the same as Muscius) and we add Hoard in addition to Muscius.

If everyone come back for both, let's see.

When shown you are wrong about Clemson, you just throw it away like you never said. It is your MO.
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OK, talk about TCU and Texas Tech now. Thanks in advance.
 
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