Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

[wsc8521s]

Wofford at 28 in KP is wild. If they only lose once more and don’t win the conference title they are right on the bubble.

It'd be a disgrace if they didn't get in. But the way the committee is going in terms of making any possible excuse for major conference teams and finding any reason to keep mid-majors out, they very well may get left at home

 

[donaldross]

This might be the most damning part of Wes' resume for the Wake job tbh.

Also want to make two things clear for DR:

1. I wouldn't be mad if we hired Wed. I think it'd be a solid hire but we should expect to have to give him 4-5 to build a program here. I do not believe it'd be a quick turnaround but I'd support him.

2. I have never made any decisions for Wake Forest athletics - nor have I had my opinion heard by anyone. I'd suspect that is the case for 99.9% of this message board.

This post is critical of Wes for an illogical reason. Then it tries to deflect responsibility.

 

[PhDeac]

Given the unspectacular list of teams who have beaten Wake over the last 9 seasons, it is pretty damning that Wes hasn’t beaten us.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

I'm far more interested in larger sample sizes than focusing on whether a coach did or did not beat some other random team. I don't want to hire Ron Cottrell or Tim Craft.

 

[CharlotteDeac1]

This post is critical of Wes for an illogical reason. Then it tries to deflect responsibility.

I have zero responsibility when it comes to hiring a Wake Forest basketball coach. Or any coach for that matter.

Which part was illogical? The part where he lost three times to probably one of the worst in-game coaches in the NCAA?

You keep reaching hard to find something to argue, and that's fine. I'd support the hiring of Wes but wouldn't view it as a home run hire by any means. Not sure what you're trying to get at here.

 

[CharlotteDeac1]

I'm far more interested in larger sample sizes than focusing on whether a coach did or did not beat some other random team. I don't want to hire Ron Cottrell or Tim Craft.

Sure, 100%. Entire sample size is more important.

Not beating Danny once isn't a good look though.

Overall, I'd definitely get behind the hiring of Wes but would like to know we struck out on a couple names in the "home run hire" list you all came out with.

 

[RJKarl]

I'm far more interested in larger sample sizes than focusing on whether a coach did or did not beat some other random team. I don't want to hire Ron Cottrell or Tim Craft.

It's not just "one random team". He's two dozen opportunities to show he can out-coach a ranked coach and has failed every time. I grant you that he had little to no chance to win many of them, but if he's truly as good as some here say, he would have gotten lucky at least once.

Then, you can legitimately add the "random school" (whose coach he's trying to replace because he's allegedly better) to the epic failures against ranked teams to make a point.

On top of both of those, he has zero P6 coaching experience. Add it all together and there are many better choices.

Sorry, he hasn't proven the ability to compete on a high level.

 

[deaclite]

Will see how the NCAAs work out for Wes and UncG. Seems like a good prospect all things considered. Is there a Clawson clone out there for hardwood purposes?

 

[birdman]

I bet Wellman goes after Steve Lavin.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Again, I just put very little stock in "did this team beat X team(s)." Sure it'd be ideal if Wes were 12-12 in 24 games against top 25 teams, but what's UNCG's record all-time against ranked teams?

Yeah it'd be nice and would make him a better candidate, but I'm comfortable looking at overall body of work and where teams finished ranked overall .

 

[Pilchard]

Will see how the NCAAs work out for Wes and UncG. Seems like a good prospect all things considered. Is there a Clawson clone out there for hardwood purposes?

Think that Wes Miller should be considered as a candidate, but Wofford is the only team in the SoCon with a shot at an large bid, and they are good. Furman and ETSU are also solid teams. So, the odds are against UNCG getting an NCAA bid this season despite their 22-3 record as they will have to win the conference tourney against some quality teams. So, the chances are that UNCG will not be a NCAA team this year.

BTW, the SoCon is currently the #10 rated conference in the nation (there are 32) ahead of conferences like the A-10, Mountain West, WAC and Conference USA. So, UNCG's 11-1 conference record is laudable. Miller has built a solid program in a conference that can be legitimately characterized as a mid-major.

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

I'm okay with Wes Miller at this point, but the idea that Wes is the only good candidate is so dumb that I can't believe you guys are engaging DR on this

 

[ManhassetDeac]

I honestly think that if Wes Miller was included in the mid-major tier instead of his own tier above the other mid-major coaches, people wouldn't be getting so angry. He's not the home run hire in terms of resume, but he's probably up there as the best we can hope to get after the last decade.

 

[wsc8521s]

BTW, the SoCon is currently the #10 rated conference in the nation (there are 32) ahead of conferences like the A-10, Mountain West, WAC and Conference USA. So, UNCG's 11-1 conference record is laudable. Miller has built a solid program in a conference that can be legitimately characterized as a mid-major.

Though this is the conference's best season in several decades

 

[Pilchard]

Though this is the conference's best season in several decades

Absolutely. OTOH, some of the credit to the SoCon's resurgence is that there are some quality coaches in that league.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Based on KP, Miller has the following record against top 25 teams:

2011: 0-2 (Clemson and Duke, lost by 10 and 46); finished the season 284 in KP.
2012: 0-3 (Georgetown, FSU, Duke, lost by 41, 15, and 27); finished the season 280 in KP.
2013: 0-0; finished the season 286 in KP
2014: 0-0; finished the season 315 in KP
2015: 0-1 (UNC, lost by 23 in Greensboro); finished the season 285 in KP
2016: 0-1 (UNC, lost by 33); finished the season 220 in KP
2017: 0-1 (UVA, lost by 25 in Greensboro); finished the season 121 in KP
2018: 0-1 (UVA, lost by 12); finished the season 82 in KP
2019: 0-2 (LSU and Kentucky, lost by 6 and 17); currently 82 in KP

Breaking this down, he's 0-11 against KP teams in the top 25. They were 0-2 at home against top 25 teams and 0-9 on the road. He lost five games in his first two seasons (first season I'm counting is when he took over as an interim coach). The odds of a team outside the top 200 in KP beating a top 25 team is single digit percentage for road, neutral, and for games against 10-15 teams at home (Wake is currently 176th and is 6% to beat 7th UNC at home, and 16% to beat 22nd FSU at home).

Just looking at these odds for the first six seasons when UNCG was outside the top 200, he went 0-7 with each game in single digit odds to win. His expected win total for these 7 games was under .5 of a game total. Overall, I'd say the expected win total for his 11 games against top 25 KP opponents rounds to 1 (so 1-10 overall would be "expected"). Winning zero when you're expected to be 1-10 means jack shit.

The real criticism, if you believe it is warranted, would be that UNCG still sat outside the top 200 in KP through five years. However, I believe the program was just in an abysmal state prior to Miller and truly took a long time to turn around (they ranked 99th in KP in 2008 and haven't had another top 100 team since 2002 until the last year and a half).

 

[Wakeforest22890]

I'd be pretty surprised if we don't give Furman's young head coach (Bob Richey) at least a call, particularly given the Buddie connection there.

Niko Medved put Furman in a great spot, but Richey has kept the team in the top 100 in his two years there as a 35 year old.

 

[IamThunderbolt]

I'd be pretty surprised if we don't give Furman's young head coach (Bob Richey) at least a call, particularly given the Buddie connection there.

Niko Medved put Furman in a great spot, but Richey has kept the team in the top 100 in his two years there as a 35 year old.

Could we package the deal and bring Buddie on as well?

 

[RJKarl]

Again, I just put very little stock in "did this team beat X team(s)." Sure it'd be ideal if Wes were 12-12 in 24 games against top 25 teams, but what's UNCG's record all-time against ranked teams?

Yeah it'd be nice and would make him a better candidate, but I'm comfortable looking at overall body of work and where teams finished ranked overall .

I didn't say 12-12 or even 6-18...I said ONE...

KP rankings are irrelevant.

His body of work includes four out of his seven years at UNC-G coming in 5th or below in a very weak conference. It could argued be that his recent success is due to a single player.

Compare that to Gergg Marshall's time at Winthrop- 9 years - 6 times 1st place, 2 2nds and a third. Pat Kelsey - 6 years - 2- 1sts; 2 - 2nds; a third and a fifth. Nate Oats has 2 thirds and a first.

Wes MIGHT become a good coach, and in a different position, he might be a viable candidate. If we choose him now, it's out of desperation.

 

[RacerDeac]

It'd be a disgrace if they didn't get in. But the way the committee is going in terms of making any possible excuse for major conference teams and finding any reason to keep mid-majors out, they very well may get left at home

The prevailing "wisdom" not that long ago was that parity meant that you could win an NCAA Championship from anywhere and there was less and less reason for coaches to seek P6 jobs. The idea that a Wofford could get overlooked for a bottom half of the conference P6 team means the Wake job isn't nearly as bad as many assume it to be. Besides the X-factor of Wellman, few schools can match our TV money/budget, conference, location, facilities, etc. Even in a bad year, we made it to the tournament