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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

i just don't believe the bat shit crazy notion that Danny would be due $15mm+ if we fired him
 
buckets said:
i just don't believe the bat shit crazy notion that Danny would be due $15mm+ if we fired him
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Goodman repeated it this week and I saw a couple other references of over $10 million, so I'm inclined to believe it is eight figures.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I mean we get like $20 million a year on tv contracts already, I just don't know how that money is allocated and already earmarked.
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Most of it goes to pay Wellman's salary. The rest I think they use to buy gas for the Deacon motorcycle.
 
Goodman reported $18M "on the hook" for Manning, whatever that means. Amazing.

I don't know what the operating budget of the athletic program is, but the BOT doesn't necessarily have to sign off on a new coach or the terms of a coach's contract from my understanding (of general college athletics programs, not WF specificially). IE Hatch/Wellman have funds available to them via the overall budget to make that decision as part of their job. Not sure if anyone else can confirm Wake's individual situation or not.

What funds are available for a BB coach, I have no idea and imagine that info is not publicly available anywhere for a private school.

This link is old (only up to FY 2012), but it shows budgets up to $70M and beyond for big ACC schools.
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2011/08/22/In-Depth/Budgets.aspx

As of FY2016, ACC schools were getting ~$25M from TV and bowl payouts.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/05/19/acc-revenues-drop-30-million/101881486/

So Wake could be in the 60-80M range by now. That doesn't make a big buyout and new hire seem impossible, but its a big chunk of change.
 
One of the things that’s interesting here is that we are all assuming that Manning is gone, but in Ron we trust...

Wellman pushed [Redacted] on us another year than was even remotely reasonable, so let’s not be shocked if Manning is back.
 
This is the unreasonable year.
 
I've heard one of two more wins is all Danny needs to get another year. Hope that is not true . Guy should be gone Now. I will not get too excited about any candidate until Danny is gone
 
This is not anything new, but there is a middle ground between taking a flyer on Wes Miller and getting a homerun hire like Matta or Oats. It seems to me we're overthinking this a bit. Pat Kelsey is the perfect choice. Energy of Prosser years that will bring back excitement to the Joel. He was an assistant coach and recruited at the top levels of CBB @ Wake and Xavier. Worked under Skip and Mack...they're pretty good. And he built a program in disarray when he arrived...look at the few years at Wintrhop between Marshall's departure and Kelsey's arrival. He was taking over a mess. I acknowledge Wes has done a nice rebuild too. But no top level experience at the assistant level or on the recruiting trail. It seems obvious to me between those two. And it seems like Kelsey has just disappeared out of this conversation. For Wes Miller talk?

The other one right under our noses is Earl Grant at Charleston. He's built that program from the ashes of a once great program too. And has similar big time assistant experience with Marshall at Witchita and at Clemson.

Oates would be great...but unlikely. And he didn't build it from the bottom up...the momentum was already there. Kelsey and Grant seem to me to be the most Clawson-esque builders out there. And likely they say yes.
 
Deacs9394 said:
Oates would be great...but unlikely. And he didn't build it from the bottom up...the momentum was already there.
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So true. People forget he had Darryl Hall.

Actually, I’m pretty sure Oats was a guy that helped build the momentum at Buffalo through his recruiting work.
 
Ball State Deac said:
One of the things that’s interesting here is that we are all assuming that Manning is gone, but in Ron we trust...

Wellman pushed [Redacted] on us another year than was even remotely reasonable, so let’s not be shocked if Manning is back.
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There is no guarantee, but without firing Manning there is no hope anyway.
 
knowell said:
There is no guarantee, but without firing Manning there is no hope anyway.
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Yeah, which is why the "wait for Wellman to retire" argument makes little sense. Unless there's assurance that Wellman is gone this summer, you're just committing to Manning for X+1 number of years based on Wellman's retirement. If Wellman takes 2-3 more years to retire during the summer, well after hiring/firing season for basketball, it would mean 3-4 more seasons of Manning. We could actually hire another failure of a coach and be ready to start looking again by the time Wellman retires. As bad as his choices have been, even if I knew he was going to be a 1-man search team for the next hire and the donors would have no say, I'd rather try another coach than stick it out with Manning. We know Manning sucks. Why not try something else for the next few years?
 
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The most probable scenario is that Ron Wellman will be the Athletic Director at Wake Forest when the next basketball coach is hired. The more important question is whether that hire occurs in a few months or in 2020.

I expect Ron Wellman to be Wake AD for about three more years.
 
It didn't take Dixon 5 years to revive a TCU program that hadn't been to the tournament in 20 years.
 
If you look back at the threads from the last coaching hire, we were saying a lot of the same things about Wellman. It was assumed he’d retire a year or two after Manning was hired.

Nope.

Have to make the best hire now, regardless of what we think Wellman is going to do.

However, I could certainly see us hiring Miller or someone else cheap... A flyer on a younger head coach. If it doesn’t work out, it didn’t cost much and the new AD can clean up the mess.
 
People seem to assume coaches and ADs will retire by 65 even though there’s little evidence of this especially among those who are successful.
 
WRS said:
Miller would be a hugely underwhelming hire based on actual results and not some alleged ESP regarding what makes a future legendary coach. He may be the best we can do given the unfortunate state of our program but that by no means makes him a great hire.
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I think a lot of Drew's take on Wes is observing his work ethic (a lot of personal relationship as well - seeing the best in those we know (cr. Elrod)), and he's not wrong. I've been to a lot of their games and have a friend who is decently close to the program, and a lot of how they talk about Wes is similar to things I hear about Clawson in terms of drive/hunger/relentlessness. I think its a positive and the attitude that is needed for the state of the program right now. I lot of people are saying we aren't in a position to take a risk because of the tenuous state of the program, where I think it's the perfect time to take such a risk. We can't really go much lower - currently recruits don't remember watching us when we were good and Wake will always recruit well enough to put an occasional person in the NBA to stay somewhat relevant. To potentially lock in a great, young coach who could be here 30 years is worth the risk. Miller isn't #1 on my list, but while not splashy nationally, don't think it would be a bad hire at all.

Personally I'd like to see us at least reach out to

Oats
Matta
Forbes
Miller

We should be able to land at least one of those 4
 
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