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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

IAppreciateIt said:
I've moved Earl Grant way down my list with CoC down at #114 in KP with an experienced team.


Tier One: Oats, Rhoades, Craig Smith (Utah St.), Matta (if healthy/motivated)
Tier Two: Brannen, Otzelberger, Richey (Furman)
Tier Three: Miller, Turner, Grant, McKay
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Out of curiosity, why did you put Craig Smith in Tier 1?
 
How about Matt McMahon at Murray State

Know this year he's benefiting from Ja Morant, but last two years has had solid squads and has ties to NC (played at App State, assistant at UNCW 2010-2011)

He's been recruiting a 3-star or two to Murray State the last few years

Speaking of recruiting... Nate MF Oats 2018 class had a 4* and a 3*
 
wsc8521s said:
doofi have gotten kinda quiet on their backing of Miller.

#numberssupportruinscoaches
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My fear is that the biggest Wake blog going all in for Miller is going to give the AD cover to not consider any other candidates. Just don’t be shocked if we hire Miller after his second round CBI loss.
 
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buckets said:
How about Matt McMahon at Murray State

Know this year he's benefiting from Ja Morant, but last two years has had solid squads and has ties to NC (played at App State, assistant at UNCW 2010-2011)

He's been recruiting a 3-star or two to Murray State the last few years

Speaking of recruiting... Nate MF Oats 2018 class had a 4* and a 3*
Click to expand...

Ja was on Murray State last year, and Ja was pretty damn good as a freshman. Sans Ja, McMahon's record is 33-31. Not good compared to McMahon's predecessors at Murray St who all did respectable and left for better jobs. Prohm, Kennedy, Cronin.
 
NCDomer said:
Ja was on Murray State last year, and Ja was pretty damn good as a freshman. Sans Ja, McMahon's record is 33-31. Not good compared to McMahon's predecessors at Murray St who all did respectable and left for better jobs. Prohm, Kennedy, Cronin.
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agreed

although tough to fault a guy for recruiting well! but ja is like a once a decade find at a mid major
 
buckets said:
agreed

although tough to fault a guy for recruiting well! but ja is like a once a decade find at a mid major
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True, but I don't see any evidence that McMahon is the second coming of Odom. After all, Odom had success pre- and post- Duncan and had also recruited Chill to that Duncan squad.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
I've moved Earl Grant way down my list with CoC down at #114 in KP with an experienced team.


Tier One: Oats, Rhoades, Craig Smith (Utah St.), Matta (if healthy/motivated)
Tier Two: Brannen, Otzelberger, Richey (Furman)
Tier Three: Miller, Turner, Grant, McKay
Click to expand...

Looks good, but I would move Richey to tier 3 probably and then create a tier 4 for Turner and McKay (and Kelsey).

Would also say that if we get into tier 3 world, you probably start interviewing some associate head coaches too.
 
wsc8521s said:
doofi have gotten kinda quiet on their backing of Miller.

#numberssupportruinscoaches
Click to expand...

He is what he is at this point. UNCG is the "luckiest" team in the country this year though, food for thought.

I think he's a really good fit if we don't get a home run hire.
 
PhDeac said:
My fear is that the biggest Wake blog going all in for Miller is going to give the AD cover to not consider any other candidates. Just don’t be shocked if we hire Miller after his second round CBI loss.
Click to expand...

Hey I hope that the AD values our opinion as much as you think they do.

They haven't given much value to the last few years of opinions though regarding coaches.
 
netflixnchildres said:
Out of curiosity, why did you put Craig Smith in Tier 1?
Click to expand...

South Dakota was 255th the year before he took over, 81st the year he left. For comparison sakes, the best team Wes Miller has had in his 8 years at UNCG as 82nd.

Then Smith took over Utah State, which finished 139th last year, and he has them at 40th. I think for me he is probably at the tail end of tier one (mainly for regional reasons), but elevating two programs like that is really impressive. The only other guy on that list that has done that is Matta.
 
BarcaDeac said:
Which is worse, Bud complaining about BSD for not posting free content on his schedule or Ph complaining about said content?
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I don't read ph complaining about the content. He's complaining that ronnie is such a dope that he would use that "support" for the easy, known candidate (that by resume is a reach) to justify the choice. Then again, pops thank you would be interesting...
 
WFU Lurker said:
South Dakota was 255th the year before he took over, 81st the year he left. For comparison sakes, the best team Wes Miller has had in his 8 years at UNCG as 82nd.

Then Smith took over Utah State, which finished 139th last year, and he has them at 40th. I think for me he is probably at the tail end of tier one (mainly for regional reasons), but elevating two programs like that is really impressive. The only other guy on that list that has done that is Matta.
Click to expand...

He's been coaching d1 for 5 years and has no CBI or NIT wins, has never made the NCAA tournament, and may not make the NCAAs this year because Nevada is going to win that league. Doesn't seem on par with Matta (been to a final four) or Oats (multiple NCAAs with 1 upset over a team with the #1 pick) or even Brannen (1 NIT win, 1 NCAA appearance, a high level assistant coach background, and somewhat decent regional ties). If you're only looking at Kenpom to determine coaches you're missing a lot of other things.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
On the flip side, Smith is from the Miles' coaching tree.
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Eh, pretty good bet that Smith is a significantly better coach than Miles. This year's Nebraska team is 42nd per Kenpom and is Mile's best. In other words, it's taken him 15 years (including 7 in a power conference) to have a team as good as Smith's team this year (his 5th year). In Mile's 5 years at Colorado St (same conference Smith is in now), his best team was 77th (so pretty much comparable to Smith's best team at South Dakota, in the Summit).

I don't think coaching tree means too much. Prosser was part of Gillen's but was a certainly a better coach.
 
I'll write an article saying our only legitimate choice is Oats or we should disband the program. Then we can use it as leverage.
 
netflixnchildres said:
He's been coaching d1 for 5 years and has no CBI or NIT wins, has never made the NCAA tournament, and may not make the NCAAs this year because Nevada is going to win that league. Doesn't seem on par with Matta (been to a final four) or Oats (multiple NCAAs with 1 upset over a team with the #1 pick) or even Brannen (1 NIT win, 1 NCAA appearance, a high level assistant coach background, and somewhat decent regional ties). If you're only looking at Kenpom to determine coaches you're missing a lot of other things.
Click to expand...

Well, first, if Matta is healthy and motivated he is definitely a notch above all the other candidates. I'm just worried that he isn't.

But, I think if you focus much of post season results, when you're talking about these low / mid-major programs and generally short tenures, you can get some false reads. This is especially true when talking about NCAAT appearances. In a combined 13 seasons as head coach between Brannen, Oats, and Smith, only two of those seasons have had even the potential of earning an at-large bid: Buffalo this year and Utah State this year. So, then, in all the other seasons, whether or not they went to the tournament was decided by if they could win 3 consecutive games in conference tournaments. And that is, to some degree, just a crapshoot, especially since they have faced different levels of difficulty in those tournaments. Last year, Smith's path went through #78 South Dakota State. Meanwhile, the toughest team Oats faced was #113 Toledo, and Brannen actually lost in the first round to #300 Cleveland State (the biggest post-season failure I've uncovered for any of these guys...). And this year, will it really count as a knock against Smith if he misses the NCAAT due to losing to a top ten team in the conference tournament and then having bad bubble luck?

The other factor that I think you're missing to some degree is the strength of the program that they inherited. Hurley had Buffalo at #58, and it wasn't until this year that Oats exceeded that. Now I am not trying to diminish his success because it is an accomplishment to even maintain a MAC program in upstate New York at a top 100 level, but at the same time Brannen and Smith both inherited notably weaker programs and got them to that top 100 level pretty damn quickly.
 
I’ve been brainstorming on a plan. It’s very much a work in progress, but hear me out...

When Wellman announces his next terrible hire, we fabricate some horrible story about the candidate’s past. I don’t have it exactly figured out... For now, let’s just say he molests collies. Whatever it is, though, it has to be really bad. We cause an uproar... It’s 100% not about the bad thing... It’s more about the underwhelming hire, but we keep that to ourselves.

The stain would have to be so bad that it makes Wellman look tone deaf for not noticing it.

Wake Forest is forced to renege on the hire and remove Wellman from his position as AD.

Somebody new comes in (maybe even John Currie) and makes a much better hire and we get back to winning basketball games.

I don’t have a name for this plan yet, but I think it’s a solid framework.
 
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