I suppose if Oats gets Buffalo to the Final 4, your argument gets better. But the fact is that Shaka got VCU to the Final 4 and he post season success - at VCU - was not a one hit wonder a la UNCCharlotte 50 years ago.
Also, Oats has never recruited 4 and 5 stars (and won them), Shaka now has at Texas. You could argue that he then doesn't know how to get the most out of 4/5 stars the way he did with 3 stars, but we don't know if Oats can or can't either.
It's like a restaurant has a great Michelin star, great Yelp reviews, and amazing reviews in the local newspaper, but does have a few recent bad Yelp reviews that may give you pause if it costs too much, but the other option has no Michelin rating or review, no local newspaper reviews yet, but great Yelp reviews, especially recently (Oats). And oh btw, that restaurant recently just jacked up their prices that make it not too much cheaper than the more established one.