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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

Sat next to a guy yesterday at the bar watching some of the UVA-State game who grew up next door to Russell Turner and was friends with him in HS. Said we should take a look at him without any prompting on my part. Also said he interviewed with VCU after Shaka left but they weren’t offering enough money to uproot them from the east coast.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Really there haven’t been any that I recall. Which I will concede is to your point that none should be considered (and to consider others - Odom miller Kelsey) would be a massive risk.

Maybe someone else can think of a few?
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That's exactly my point. Choosing arbitrary levels within computer rankings as somehow predictive of success at the ACC level is a mistake, imo. And thus any hire outside of the home run guys is a risk...really any hire is a risk, but I think you get my point. So then I'm left with if Oztelberger or Brannen are a big risk, then why are they better choices than Odom or Miller? To me, if you're gonna gamble, intangibles then matter.
 
RacerDeac said:
Ok Ronald. The rest of us have moved on from the 80's. We no longer need to choose from "random mid-major coaches". That brought us [Redacted] and Manning.

You've got the process backwards. Rather than initially sorting to a handful of coaches with Wake ties or coaches you've heard about because of a big upset, etc, and then trying to pick out highlights of their resume to support hiring them, why not pick a handful of coaches who have objectively performed well via a set of standards and then use a little bit of eye-test and gut feeling to sort through the best of the best?
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Or perhaps rather than dismissing someone with Wake ties because is "LOWF", you actually look at it objectively? Seems to me the argument against Odom is KenPom and that he has Wake ties...that somehow that's a knock.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Really there haven’t been any that I recall. Which I will concede is to your point that none should be considered (and to consider others - Odom miller Kelsey) would be a massive risk.

Maybe someone else can think of a few?
Click to expand...

Larranaga took George Mason to the F4 from the CAA, which was generally mid-pack (#14 or so conference, most years)

his SRS rankings:

35 (and Final 4)
104
88 (and first-round loss to Notre Dame as a #12 seed)
98
158
50 (earned a #8 seed, beat Villanova, lost to Matta & OSU)

and then hired by Miami
 
RacerDeac said:
Ok Ronald. The rest of us have moved on from the 80's. We no longer need to choose from "random mid-major coaches". That brought us [Redacted] and Manning.

You've got the process backwards. Rather than initially sorting to a handful of coaches with Wake ties or coaches you've heard about because of a big upset, etc, and then trying to pick out highlights of their resume to support hiring them, why not pick a handful of coaches who have objectively performed well via a set of standards and then use a little bit of eye-test and gut feeling to sort through the best of the best?
Click to expand...

Racer, I am curious who your suggestions are? Other than the big names thrown around here...who are your mid-major guys you are behind? So not Matta or Shaka or Oats. Who's next for you?
 
Deacs9394 said:
Or perhaps rather than dismissing someone with Wake ties because is "LOWF", you actually look at it objectively? Seems to me the argument against Odom is KenPom and that he has Wake ties...that somehow that's a knock.
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No one has said it's a knock on Odom that I've seen. I think it's a knock for Miller, only because firing him becomes extremely hard when his name is all over the campus and his dad is one the school's biggest donors. It seems like you're emotionally tied to your Odom suggestion in some way and you're taking this personally. It's not an attack or knock on Odom to point out that he, objectively, does not have the resume as a head coach to match up to some of the other options being discussed.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
UMBC is the eighth best team between the summit and AE.
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But Number 1 in giving [Redacted] his start and also has the best nickname. Given those two factors alone, and not even considering the Odom connection, I'm ready to hire anyone from UMBC. #facts
 
RacerDeac said:
No one has said it's a knock on Odom that I've seen. I think it's a knock for Miller, only because firing him becomes extremely hard when his name is all over the campus and his dad is one the school's biggest donors. It seems like you're emotionally tied to your Odom suggestion in some way and you're taking this personally. It's not an attack or knock on Odom to point out that he, objectively, does not have the resume as a head coach to match up to some of the other options being discussed.
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Not personal at all. I have no emotional stake in him at all. Do think he'd be a good hire...there we can agree to disagree.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Larranaga took George Mason to the F4 from the CAA, which was generally mid-pack (#14 or so conference, most years)

his SRS rankings:

35 (and Final 4)
104
88 (and first-round loss to Notre Dame as a #12 seed)
98
158
50 (earned a #8 seed, beat Villanova, lost to Matta & OSU)

and then hired by Miami
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CAA is mid-major...especially back then.
 
Deacs9394 said:
Racer, I am curious who your suggestions are? Other than the big names thrown around here...who are your mid-major guys you are behind? So not Matta or Shaka or Oats. Who's next for you?
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Oats IS a mid-major guy. As is Musselman. Then maybe Rhoades. Maybe Forbes. I'm sure there are others though I haven't looked at every coach out there.

If our AD proves to be incompetent yet again, on the lower end, guys like Grant, Miller sneak in because they've built some decent teams, though they aren't really nationally relevant.

In general, needs to have coached at least a Top 100 team. That's a pretty hard rule before I would bother considering a coach. Top 50 even better. Top 25 is awesome. Not that impressed with auto-bid NCAA appearances, but very interested in mid-major coaches who can put their team in the conversation for an at-large. Not that impressed with coaches who win a lot vs SOS of 250+...I think that's a good indicator of being ready for the next step, but not a step all the way up to Wake. Prefer coaches who have moved the needle up consistently. Important that they've played some decent SOS's in order to understand what a good team actually looks like as opposed to what it takes to be the best of the worst. Just like I wouldn't want to hire a high school coach directly to P6, I wouldn't want to hire a low-major directly to P6. There's no reason, no matter what their last name is, to go fishing for a coach that low when there are plenty of better options closer to the top.
 
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UMBC is 5-13 against top 100 teams the last three years under Odom. Miller is 11-15 at UNCG the last three years.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
UMBC is 5-13 against top 100 teams the last three years under Odom. Miller is 11-15 at UNCG the last three years.
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Miller has built his program from a shitty program in a shitty conference to a respectable program in a respectable conference

he doesn't get full credit for that last part, but the SoCon has improved significantly while he's been at UNCG - perhaps Miller should send flowers to Steve Forbes, Bob Richey, Mike Young and Fletcher Magee for raising the conference profile

Odom has built his program from a shitty program in a shitty conference to an above-average program in a shitty conference
 
They’re above average in their conference but not in the country. UMBC has never been in the top half of the country under Odom (or for that matter any coach since 2008 when they were 127).
 
Compare Odom to Brannen and Craig Smith.

All three spent a long time working for mediocre to good but definitely not great head coaches at non-basketball, power conference schools. All three took over historically weak programs and turned them around quickly. Difference is that Brannen's and Smith's teams were just plain better than Odom's. Odom has, so far, peaked at #166 in Y2 while Brannen peaked at 90 in Y3 (and 3 of his 4 years have been better than 166th), and Smith peaked at 81 in Y4 at South Dakota (2 of 4 years better than 166th). I think Brannen is pretty clearly the better candidate than Odom, and, once you throw in what he has done at Utah State, Craig Smith is too (which more than offsets his lack of east coast ties).

Otzelberger has never impressed me as much as he does some others. He took over a strong program and kept it at that level.
 
If we're looking at mid-majors, I think we should at least take a look at Matt McMahon of Murray St. and Matt Langel of Colgate.
 
mattwfu99 said:
If we're looking at mid-majors, I think we should at least take a look at Matt McMahon of Murray St. and Matt Langel of Colgate.
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No we should not. Langel has been at Colgate for 8 seasons and has only had 3 winning records in conference.

McMahon is winning because he has a top 5 draft pick in the Ohio Valley. Without Ja Morant, he is a 0.500 coach.
 
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