NCAAT discussion (the end)

[timthedeac]

ETA: Vegas has them about 62% to make it (-165), the best odds of any team overall. UNC is 42%, UVA is 55%, and Gonzaga is 52.4%

538's model is close - doesn't like the favorites quite as much. Here's their odds for each team to make the final 4 and win it all

Duke 51% 18%
Virginia 53% 17%
Gonzaga 49% 14%
Mich St 31% 9%
UNC  36% 9%
Kentucky 29% 6%
Tennessee 23% 5%
Purdue  21% 5%
Michigan 20% 5%
Texas Tech 20% 4%
Auburn 19% 3%
Va Tech 14% 2%
Houston 16% 2%
FSU 12% 2%
LSU 5% 1%
Oregon 3% 0%

 

[Wakeforest22890]

They're 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games. They're a really good team and I don't think they have any bad matchups overall, but I don't think they're as good as the media promotes them to be.

 

[greekdeac2011]

They're 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games. They're a really good team and I don't think they have any bad matchups overall, but I don't think they're as good as the media promotes them to be.

No, not at all. Even with Zion back, they've not been that dominant. As with most Duke teams, they played their best basketball early in the year and have tapered off late in the season. I think Duke beats Vtech, but I am not as confident they beat MSU.

 

[Bras_is_Old]

They're 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games. They're a really good team and I don't think they have any bad matchups overall, but I don't think they're as good as the media promotes them to be.

Are you insinuating that ESPN et. al may be overhyping the Dook Blue Devils and sainted coach K? I do declare!

 

[WRS]

I'm just not seeing Duke as the best team in the nation. They peaked the first game of the year as they usually do. They certainly have been one of the luckiest teams in the country for the last few weeks, so that could keep them going all the way to a title.

Amazing how the narrative today is “Duke refused to lose” when the reality is UCF flat out gave the game away:

-Idiotic alley oop on a fast break when they should have run clock and set the offense.
-Tacko’s 5th foul (either move out of the way entirely or at least make sure he misses the basket)
-Immediately following Tacko fouling out Zion misses the and-1 and they get a putback which almost certainly doesn’t happen if their 7-6 player is in the game
-Two pretty decent chances to win including a point blank putback which just bounced out

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Not to mention that Zion blatantly charged right before Tacko fouled him at the basket. The last charge call on Zion was questionable, but Zion 100% charged (lowered his shoulder and bull rushed the lane) on the basket to cut the lead to one.

 

[Pilchard]

538's model is close - doesn't like the favorites quite as much. Here's their odds for each team to make the final 4 and win it all

Duke 51% 18%
Virginia 53% 17%
Gonzaga 49% 14%
Mich St 31% 9%
UNC  36% 9%
Kentucky 29% 6%
Tennessee 23% 5%
Purdue  21% 5%
Michigan 20% 5%
Texas Tech 20% 4%
Auburn 19% 3%
Va Tech 14% 2%
Houston 16% 2%
FSU 12% 2%
LSU 5% 1%
Oregon 3% 0%

Analytics are useful, but there are flaws. Take Oregon as an example.

Realize Oregon sucked for most of the year and that is why their 538 percentages are 3% to win the South Region and 0% to win it all, but they are a completely different team right now, and the results from the first 3 months of the season are irrelevant for them. They steam-rolled two good teams to make the Sweet 16 and now have won 10 straight with an average margin of victory of 18 ppg (that includes wins over 6 NCAA teams in that stretch). If you isolated the results over the last ten games, Oregon might be top 8 in the country.

Still think UVA will beat Oregon, but the chances that Oregon wins the next two are significantly greater than 3%, and they have better chance than multiple teams (LSU, FSU, Houston VT) in front of them to win it all.

 

[Bras_is_Old]

Analytics are useful, but there are flaws. Take Oregon as an example.

Realize Oregon sucked for most of the year and that is why their 538 percentages are 3% to win the South Region and 0% to win it all, but they are a completely different team right now, and the results from the first 3 months of the season are irrelevant for them. They steam-rolled two good teams to make the Sweet 16 and now have won 10 straight with an average margin of victory of 18 ppg (that includes wins over 6 NCAA teams in that stretch). If you isolated the results over the last ten games, Oregon might be top 8 in the country.

Still think UVA will beat Oregon, but the chances that Oregon wins the next two are significantly greater than 3%, and they have better chance than multiple teams (LSU, FSU, Houston VT) in front of them to win it all.

This is true. Does KP do a ranking over the last month of the season only or something comparable for paying members?

 

[tigerswood]

Not to mention that Zion blatantly charged right before Tacko fouled him at the basket. The last charge call on Zion was questionable, but Zion 100% charged (lowered his shoulder and bull rushed the lane) on the basket to cut the lead to one.

I was OK with the non-call on the charge, but only if they also swallowed the whistle on Taco. I mean the guy was standing with his massive arms straight up and didn't even jump. Then the non-call on the rebound was a blatant push in the back by Barrett.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

This is true. Does KP do a ranking over the last month of the season only or something comparable for paying members?

No it's just over the course of the year. You can, however, see how their ratings have jumped over a relevant time period by comparing now to a month ago (they've moved up from 67 on February 23 to 28 as of today).

 

[Wakeforest22890]

I was OK with the non-call on the charge, but only if they also swallowed the whistle on Taco. I mean the guy was standing with his massive arms straight up and didn't even jump. Then the non-call on the rebound was a blatant push in the back by Barrett.

Yeah Tacko committed plenty of other fouls earlier in the game that didn't get called.

 

[WFU Lurker]

No it's just over the course of the year. You can, however, see how their ratings have jumped over a relevant time period by comparing now to a month ago (they've moved up from 67 on February 23 to 28 as of today).

Aren't more recent games more heavily weighted?

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Aren't more recent games more heavily weighted?

To some degree, but not as much as they used to be in his system. This is from a 2016 post explaining a model change he made:

"While offense and defense are still rated independently, the performance of each is now evaluated against the national average in efficiency on the date the game was played.2 Opponent quality being equal, it’s more impressive to post 1.4 points per possession in a November game than a March game since average efficiency tends to rise during the season, and the new system accounts for that. Again, this isn’t a huge thing, but while I was tinkering with code, it felt like something worth adding.

There have been some other changes to the system as well. The weighting coefficients to handle recency and game importance have been changed. Essentially, recency is less important than it used to be and game importance is less sensitive to margin and opponent than it used to be."

 

[Bubble Boy]

Is ESPN covering the NCAA tournament or just Duke? There are two articles about Duke on the first page. You have to expand the options at the top of the menu to find NCAAM, then go to scores, to get the scores from the games.

It's been that way all season. Zion Williamson is on the landing page of ESPN.com just about every day. I'm starting to think they like him better than even Tim Tebow.

 

[Bras_is_Old]

To some degree, but not as much as they used to be in his system. This is from a 2016 post explaining a model change he made:

"While offense and defense are still rated independently, the performance of each is now evaluated against the national average in efficiency on the date the game was played.2 Opponent quality being equal, it’s more impressive to post 1.4 points per possession in a November game than a March game since average efficiency tends to rise during the season, and the new system accounts for that. Again, this isn’t a huge thing, but while I was tinkering with code, it felt like something worth adding.

There have been some other changes to the system as well. The weighting coefficients to handle recency and game importance have been changed. Essentially, recency is less important than it used to be and game importance is less sensitive to margin and opponent than it used to be."

Interesting. Think it's fair to say that Oregon would rightfully have completely different odds of beating Virginia if this game were played in January rather than now.

 

[JimDuncan]

I remember Trent Strickland botched a reverse dunk against Duke at home that clanged off the rim and then Duke came down and hit a 3. Backbreaker. Classic WF sports moment.

 

[wsc8521s]

Not sure we ever recovered from that that season TBH

 

[greekdeac2011]

Amazing how the narrative today is “Duke refused to lose” when the reality is UCF flat out gave the game away:

-Idiotic alley oop on a fast break when they should have run clock and set the offense.
-Tacko’s 5th foul (either move out of the way entirely or at least make sure he misses the basket)
-Immediately following Tacko fouling out Zion misses the and-1 and they get a putback which almost certainly doesn’t happen if their 7-6 player is in the game
-Two pretty decent chances to win including a point blank putback which just bounced out

I'm not disagreeing with you. Tacko should've let Zion dunk or whatever he wanted to do on that final drive. Duke would be down 1 with 14 seconds left and would be forced to foul. But the idiotic alley oop was one of the most defeating plays in the game, all Duke's no-calls notwithstanding. But of course Zion charged and Barrett pushed off to get the offensive rebound. But it's Duke, and the NCAA didn't want them out in the second round.

 

[Complacent Deac]

Amazing how the narrative today is “Duke refused to lose” when the reality is UCF flat out gave the game away:

-Idiotic alley oop on a fast break when they should have run clock and set the offense.
-Tacko’s 5th foul (either move out of the way entirely or at least make sure he misses the basket)
-Immediately following Tacko fouling out Zion misses the and-1 and they get a putback which almost certainly doesn’t happen if their 7-6 player is in the game
-Two pretty decent chances to win including a point blank putback which just bounced out

I've been wondering a lot about these point blank tips that seem to rim out, since Chaundee's rimmed out in Durham. A few slightly conspiracy, slightly curious thoughts:

- The rims. Plenty tight.

- The nets, especially in this tournament, look like Nerf Hoop nets. Very, very short. The ball does not really swish through those.

- The ball. Zion was seen "crushing" the ball (Wilson?). It looks a lot slick, not much similar to the Larry Bird leather ball back in the day in the Gahden.

I am thinking (just like Zion's sneaker blowout) it is the ball. A real heavy ball (see: Bird leather ball) likely falls in on one of those shots: Chaundee or Dawkins yesterday. Maybe both. A real heavy ball just grabs that rim and drops in.

I will say the Wilson ball is a little heavier, and less slick, than the Spalding.

Oh, Duke still sucks.

 

[Bluegrass Deac]

When Zion started his drive to the basket UCF should have fouled him on the floor. Duke was in the one and one, not the double bonus. Good chance Zion misses the front end.