Pilchard
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Georgia Tech is the only ACC Team WF has yet to play this season, and WF finally meets their "natural rival" (remember when the ACC designated WF and GT as natural basketball rivals when the ACC first stopped playing every conference team home and home?) this Wednesday night. Here is the breakdown of the Rambling Wreck:
The season: Rested GT visits LJVM as the Jackets enjoyed a week off after their best win of the season a 64-58 wire to wire victory over #5 L'ville. #82 GT currently sports a 12-13 (6-8 record) with top 100 wins over: #60 NC State (twice), #88 Boise State, #94 UNC, #93VT and L'ville. Jackets have a 4-6 road record, but are 2-0 playing in the state of NC (wins at UNC and State). The Jackets are banned from post-season play (including the ACC Tournament); so, GT has six games left in their season.
Offensive and defensive trends in ACC play: The Rambling Wreck is the #8 ACC team on offense, and among the best at scoring inside in conference play -- 52% 2 PT FG% (#2); 59% of the GT offense comes from 2 point FGs (#1 among ACC teams). OTOH, GT turns the ball over often (22% TO rate - DFL in the ACC), they don't shoot FTs well (66% - #13), and the Wreck doesn't rely on the 3 point shot (only 24% of their offense comes from behind the arc -- #14). GT is similarly mediocre on defense (#8) fouling A LOT. In ACC play, the Wreck is #14 in opponents FTA per FGA; opponents also rebound 32% of their missed shots against GT (#10), and they don't force many TOs (TOs on 17% of their defensive possessions - #9). GT does defend the 3 point line well (31% -- #4) and has a solid overall effective FG% defense (47% -- #4).
The lineup: Unless they are in foul trouble, Pastner keep his horses in the game. In the win over L'ville, the starters plus Bubba Parham played 184 of the available 200 minutes. Most recently, Tech started: 6-0 Jose Alvarado (streaky from 3 - when he hits 2 or more 3 pointers in a conference game GT is 6-4; when he doesn't, GT is 0-4), 6-5 Michael Devoe (can get hot: has scored 20+ eight times), 6-7 Jordan Usher (USC transfer - selfish player - shooting 16% from 3; has the highest TO rate among the regulars), 6-9 Moses Wright (steady - has scored in double figures in 12 of GT's 14 ACC games - can't shoot from deep --22%) and 6-10 James Banks (Texas transfer -- leading rebounder - no threat from 3). Off the bench, Pastner inserts 5-10 Bubba Parham (VMI transfer - very quick) and 6-10 Evan Cole (coming off an injury). Devoe, Alvarado and Parham are the only Tech players with more than 6 three pointers on the season.
Bottom line: KP projects a 70-68 WF win. Deacs will need to defend the paint, get the Jackets in foul trouble, and prevent Alvarado and/or Devoe from taking over the game. Deacs will have a week off after this game; so, there is little doubt Coach Manning will have his team ready for a max effort.... Ok, maybe there is some doubt about that.... GT plays a lot of close games: GT has not had an double digit ACC win or loss since beating BC on January 11 (8 games ago). This one looks like a tight contest as well. Given that the game is at home (WF has won 3 of 4 at home; the one loss was in OT to UVA), and that WF out-shoots GT from the line (75% to 65%); lean to the WF side, but that lean is shaky... very shaky...
The season: Rested GT visits LJVM as the Jackets enjoyed a week off after their best win of the season a 64-58 wire to wire victory over #5 L'ville. #82 GT currently sports a 12-13 (6-8 record) with top 100 wins over: #60 NC State (twice), #88 Boise State, #94 UNC, #93VT and L'ville. Jackets have a 4-6 road record, but are 2-0 playing in the state of NC (wins at UNC and State). The Jackets are banned from post-season play (including the ACC Tournament); so, GT has six games left in their season.
Offensive and defensive trends in ACC play: The Rambling Wreck is the #8 ACC team on offense, and among the best at scoring inside in conference play -- 52% 2 PT FG% (#2); 59% of the GT offense comes from 2 point FGs (#1 among ACC teams). OTOH, GT turns the ball over often (22% TO rate - DFL in the ACC), they don't shoot FTs well (66% - #13), and the Wreck doesn't rely on the 3 point shot (only 24% of their offense comes from behind the arc -- #14). GT is similarly mediocre on defense (#8) fouling A LOT. In ACC play, the Wreck is #14 in opponents FTA per FGA; opponents also rebound 32% of their missed shots against GT (#10), and they don't force many TOs (TOs on 17% of their defensive possessions - #9). GT does defend the 3 point line well (31% -- #4) and has a solid overall effective FG% defense (47% -- #4).
The lineup: Unless they are in foul trouble, Pastner keep his horses in the game. In the win over L'ville, the starters plus Bubba Parham played 184 of the available 200 minutes. Most recently, Tech started: 6-0 Jose Alvarado (streaky from 3 - when he hits 2 or more 3 pointers in a conference game GT is 6-4; when he doesn't, GT is 0-4), 6-5 Michael Devoe (can get hot: has scored 20+ eight times), 6-7 Jordan Usher (USC transfer - selfish player - shooting 16% from 3; has the highest TO rate among the regulars), 6-9 Moses Wright (steady - has scored in double figures in 12 of GT's 14 ACC games - can't shoot from deep --22%) and 6-10 James Banks (Texas transfer -- leading rebounder - no threat from 3). Off the bench, Pastner inserts 5-10 Bubba Parham (VMI transfer - very quick) and 6-10 Evan Cole (coming off an injury). Devoe, Alvarado and Parham are the only Tech players with more than 6 three pointers on the season.
Bottom line: KP projects a 70-68 WF win. Deacs will need to defend the paint, get the Jackets in foul trouble, and prevent Alvarado and/or Devoe from taking over the game. Deacs will have a week off after this game; so, there is little doubt Coach Manning will have his team ready for a max effort.... Ok, maybe there is some doubt about that.... GT plays a lot of close games: GT has not had an double digit ACC win or loss since beating BC on January 11 (8 games ago). This one looks like a tight contest as well. Given that the game is at home (WF has won 3 of 4 at home; the one loss was in OT to UVA), and that WF out-shoots GT from the line (75% to 65%); lean to the WF side, but that lean is shaky... very shaky...
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