Eagles roleblock jailing thesis
As a preface: if someone has been roleblocked besides eagles, please say so. Would affect the following:
Six possible universes exist in my mind. I’ve never seen an Indy with roleblock:
1. Eagles is civ / mafia roleblock
2. Eagles is Indy / mafia roleblock
3. Eagles is mafia / mafia roleblock
4. Eagles is civ / civ jailing
5. Eagles is Indy / civ jailing
6. Eagles is mafia / civ jailing
7. Eagles is civ / no roleblock
8. Eagles is Indy / no roleblock
9. Eagles is maf / no roleblock
1. Mafia doesn’t know the setup so they can’t know if we have a watcher. Therefore they wouldn’t want to stick their roleblocker out in the wind like that 3 nights in a row. Small chance it is an unwatchable roleblock but I’ve never seen that before and seems overpowered if it can be used on the same person consecutively.
2. Same as #1 + civs are getting lucky.
3. This was one of two reasons I started drafting this post. Using the watcher existence logic from #1, this would be a long con play that would get their roleblocker sacrificed, but nearly clear eagles. That said, eagles would likely get hit on a cop investigation. We know there is a godfather in the game so unless we never see a godfather flip otherwise, we are probably safe here because it wouldn’t make sense to sac the rb for a non-gf eagles. If a gf never flips and a mafia rb flips and eagles is alive late, ice his ass.
4. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Only downside is if Eagles is a powerful civ. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
5. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
6. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
7. This was the other reason I started drafting this post. Eagles right away claimed he could be jailed d2 which seemed weird to me. I would think the optimal play, if eagles is actually jailed, would be to stay quiet and hope he is jailed again and mafia tries to hit him, causing a miss hit. Yet he claims it. This is an amazing poetry play I wish I thought of if Eagles is faking these jailings. There’d be no way for maf to know unless they had a watcher themselves, which is unlikely but not impossible. I’d say it would be worth the risk as civ-eagles to try to stay alive by claiming a fake jailing. That said, that is 100% my play style and not really eagles.
8. Same as 7 only if Indy, the mfer has a bullet proof vest probably and this jail claim is how he is planning on explaining surviving a night hit. It would also obfuscate the would-be miss hit in mafia’s eyes. Would be a “home run” play if he avoids being watched but prob not too likely.
9. Same as 8 but I see super low utility in it since we should have a watcher and mafia typically needs “singles” and not “home runs” to win.
I post this to call people’s attention to possibilities #3, #7 and maybe #8. All of this said, I’m tabling eagles because occam says we are dealing with #4-6 and a cop has a report on his alignment and none of this matters.