Louis Gossett Jr
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Math how does it work?
I mean this fucker was one person in China like 5 months ago. Can people really not imagine 5 months from now if we just ignore social distancing?
2&2 kind of blew, huh?
I mean this fucker was one person in China like 5 months ago. Can people really not imagine 5 months from now if we just ignore social distancing?
I mean this fucker was one person in China like 5 months ago. Can people really not imagine 5 months from now if we just ignore social distancing?
But it is a math problem when gauging the relative response. Using the 1,000 cases and 125 deaths for 220,000 people without social distancing, that is an infection rate of 0.45% and a death rate of 0.06% of total population (which again doesn't even factor in the massive number of of asymptomatic people). By way of comparison, 1.33% of Americans were injured in car wrecks last year, but we aren't limiting families to one car per household to slow the number. The 2019 heart disease death rate across the population was 0.25%, yet we aren't limiting meat consumption. Recognizing that those are different types of incidents, the level of response has also been exponentially different.
And from what I've seen from the "models" of those who purport to "actually understand the disciplines above" their logic seems to be on par with the milkwich forecasters. They were predicting death in the streets unless competent responses were immediately undertaken, and by all account Trump's response has been the opposite of competent, yet the actual numbers are still significantly lower than "those who actually understand the disciplines above" predicted. So no I'm not putting much faith in the accuracy of their understanding or their models, as they clearly don't know shit more than someone throwing darts at the wall.
I think the numbers hold water just fine. I think your understanding of epidemiology and virology is flawed.
I'm missing something in the methodology regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19 and would appreciate clarification.
The anticipated mortality rate for the disease is place at 1-1.5%.
At present there are 2,224,426 confirmed cases worldwide and there are 153,177 deaths, making the mortality rate for confirmed cases 6.8% at the moment. There are 704,502 confirmed cases in the USA with 36,507 deaths resulting in a 5.2% mortality rate.
The mortality rate for resolved (recovered + deaths) cases at present is 21.1% worldwide and 38.5% in the USA.
Please explain the methodology of epidemiology and/or virology that would indicate the estimate a 1-1.5% mortality rate.
Thanks to all who choose to respond.
I understand math just fine.
I understand math just fine.
I love the whole: We Know it's exponential growth, but it's not bad yet arguments. Really shows the value of a liberal arts education. 6th grade was all we really needed. Just send everyone back to 6th grade for a refresher course.
you keep saying that, but...
No, you understand counting just fine.
Which goes to my point about the Mecklenburg County numbers given the lack of social distancing. They indicate that, at least here, the asymptomatic rate is much higher than the symptomatic rate. Because otherwise, the number of serious cases would have grown much faster.