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Rush Mafia - Game Over - Rush Wins Again

we silenced rommy, then toogs

eagles earned another silence but got killed
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
I have personal issues going on which have precluded me reading this since last night. I am happy to have redwing try to explain how me being watched n2 = me being mafia. It makes no sense. I’m aware it sounds like sour grapes but I legitimately do not understand the logic (same with Nonny basically straight lying in his breakdown but it’s all good).
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Sorry about the personal stuff.

I never said on day 3 that you were mafia. I said that you were a mafia lean because I only saw Gouda on you N2. You didn't report any negative effects (I waited until you posted before I revealed my info), so the only chance Gouda was mafia was if he was a mafia recruiter or some unfamiliar role. Chances are good, but not guaranteed, that mafia would try to hit you early. So seeing only one player on you night 2 made you a slight mafia lean to me. If I had seen two, even if it had been numbers, I would have not known roles and probably would have leaned civ. You getting flustered by my statement was bad, then not voting deacsfan27 until very late and not clearing me after timdunk died were worse. Even then, I didn't push because I thought there was a chance Gouda was cop and he didn't vote for you on that lynch.
 
@Eagles - this is what I'm trying to reference. Yes, the strongman thing definitely played a role but I was also trying to explain how you being early on dv7 (accidentally said Townie which lol) actually put you in a worse position. Without a doubt, the early charge for you was primarily a function of still being alive in the game.
AnonymousDeac said:
Eagles started the momentum for the lynch on townie day 1 which made him look pretty clear.
Mafia has a strongman hit.
Mafia doesn't use strongman hit on an eagles that is pretty civ looking.

Not hitting Eagles often comes down to 1) he does something that is likely to get him lynched or 2) mafia is scared of protection or being watched. Neither of those two are applicable for night 1, when the chance civs got that power was very rare and they had a strongman hit.

This is not a good look for Eagles and enough for me to vote for him.

***Eagles***
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But I think it's fair to say that the reason you ended up getting lynched also had to do with JMan and Knight calling you out for the reaction, and redwing and I pushing based off your analysis. Maybe it was confirmation bias but it's the read Redwing and I both got.

redwing42 said:
Eagles looks really bad. Ignoring everything else, he has put me towards the middle of his list as an uncountered member of Rush when another member of the band was just lynched. But, if everyone is saying that we wait on Eagles, so be it. We can kick that can down the road another day or two, I suppose.
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AnonymousDeac said:
I thought the same thing when I saw that.

Almost like Eagles is having trouble not being 100% honest with his analysis and scared to clear too many civs.
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I had ryala down the list a little because I figured after Bym didn’t count his vote that it couldn’t be mafia with doofus otherwise there may have been a mention of it earlier. That’s what I get for reading into incidental game mechanics.
 
bym051d said:
I don't want Townie's gameplay to get buried. I think he might've had his best game so far.

Silencing Toogs and then Townie asking him to drive the game in thread made me roll.
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You mean the guy that almost got lynched day 1?
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
One other note - romanov was excellent. Best game I’ve seen in a long time. 100% spot on including me being more inflexible on my reads when mafia <= real reason to vote for me not some nonsense about mafia not using a strongman n1. The next time that happens will be the first time.

I didn’t hold off on doofus intentionally. Irony is it was the exact opposite. When I had access to thread that day he already had a billion votes and I missed most of d2 due to work. Contrary to whatever reasoning existed in the thread, I should’ve gotten more heat being like the 7th vote on doofus in a 7-0 run to start the round rather than when I did it. I thought redwing might die so my hope was to vote for doofus late when it seemed like it mattered with redwing still dying rather than some lol logic that my vote didn’t matter. The logic behind when the vote was placed was the literal opposite of that.
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Yep. Definitely found his mojo.
 
Townie's entry was trash but he had a good recovery d1. He's getting better.
Ryala was good as usual as maf. I guess he just ran out of rope the day he was lynched. Sometimes you can't avoid it.
The parlay lynch was lolbad. The one civ mistake imo
The civs alive at the end were exceptional, i have to say. Great work.
Great game bym. I loved the random albums concept. Would like to see more mechanics like this in teh future, and goaliemom is an incredible facilitator.
 
AnonymousDeac said:
@Eagles - this is what I'm trying to reference. Yes, the strongman thing definitely played a role but I was also trying to explain how you being early on dv7 (accidentally said Townie which lol) actually put you in a worse position. Without a doubt, the early charge for you was primarily a function of still being alive in the game.


But I think it's fair to say that the reason you ended up getting lynched also had to do with JMan and Knight calling you out for the reaction, and redwing and I pushing based off your analysis. Maybe it was confirmation bias but it's the read Redwing and I both got.
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Look - one of if not my biggest flaws as mafia is getting irritated when I think people use terrible reasoning to come to right conclusions. I much rather people just pull a JMan and yell about my tone then advance inaccurate theories. I do this as a civ too (see last game me getting irritated d2 when people used bad reasoning then called me defensive).

Unfortunately with jtp’s role, a lot of the people we could’ve targeted to lynch (toog, hoop, perhaps Jtp) got cleared. Shrunk the people I could vote for other than ryala and we had to analyze since redwing saw a civ special on me the chance that I was already caught on mafia and whether me voting for a third party or a teammate would be more damaging for the rest of the team. By that day I was dead sooner rather than later, especially since I was actively silencing people and making the night hits so good chance redwing had me. That all went into an analysis (first in mafia chat) about how to handle that to try to help Townie & redwing.

But I just read redwing’s post and it still makes no sense to me (this is independent of any analysis about whether I played well).

On d3 when he posted that: I had been important getting dv7 killed and missed most of d2 with work. The idea that other mafia weren’t visiting me n2 = increases chance I’m mafia is such flawed logic (all due respect). Mafia doesn’t target me for fear of being watched. And in this game we didn’t really have other night powers - meaning, other than me being hit, he wouldn’t have seen anyone on me whether I was mafia or civ - ergo coming to the same conclusion for what I think is really flawed reasoning. That gets coupled with the incredibly silly strongman dialogue which started that same day, and I get frustrated because it’s nothing I can address via gameplay. At that point in the game the argument for me being mafia was: 1) mafia didn’t use a strongman on me n1 and 2) I was watched n2 and only one person visited me. Both of those things are also incredibly likely to happen when I’m a civ. It gets old.

(This is independent of your posts about me and sd3 which is just you and me looking at the game differently. To me it’s more sketchy if someone just auto buys every claim. Sd3 should’ve been in a civ bucket but not 100% clear like investigations [which you later acknowledged] but it was nevertheless used as some weird reason for me being mafia).
 
redwing42 said:
Sorry about the personal stuff.

I never said on day 3 that you were mafia. I said that you were a mafia lean because I only saw Gouda on you N2. You didn't report any negative effects (I waited until you posted before I revealed my info), so the only chance Gouda was mafia was if he was a mafia recruiter or some unfamiliar role. Chances are good, but not guaranteed, that mafia would try to hit you early. So seeing only one player on you night 2 made you a slight mafia lean to me. If I had seen two, even if it had been numbers, I would have not known roles and probably would have leaned civ. You getting flustered by my statement was bad, then not voting deacsfan27 until very late and not clearing me after timdunk died were worse. Even then, I didn't push because I thought there was a chance Gouda was cop and he didn't vote for you on that lynch.
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I love you redwing and you’re a very logical good mafia player. I do not agree whatsoever with the logic in the post but support your right to come to this determination.

A partner of mine at my firm (who hired me) went missing yesterday. Found his body after I was speaking with the police late last night. Pills, suicide note. Had a happy family, one year old granddaughter. Tragic and senseless. Prioritizes for you what matters.
 
ryalaman said:
I agree with this. Maf win rates are abysmal with setups that would have been balanced when we last played.
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I think the power- / role-heavy setups lead to lots of claims that help clear civs and maybe mafia haven't evolved to plan fake claims well enough to counter it. For example, any mafia could claim a role similar to JTP's and said "I have 1 mafia in 4 players" and try to make the town mislynch 3 players to get 1 mafia. That's a level of creativity / confidence / planning / follow-through that is still out there for mafia.

Then again, civs are also hurt by civs like [name redacted] that somehow turn a relatively easy clearing claim into looking very guilty and getting mislynched two games in a row.
 
maf can't elaborately plan fakes in a closed game though
 
Grabs Turds Bare said:
This happened as we played a lot a few seasons ago. I remember Rommy, 2001, and I spending a lot of data-analysis thinking about what an appropriate town/mafia ratio needed to be. It shifted dramatically as players got more familiar with play styles and being able to sense "off-ness." I think at one point in the beginning it was something like 1:4 and moved to 1:3 and needing some calculated mafia specials to have a shot. It's one of the reasons two-mafia games became more popular; they let people play a civ game, but still be bad.

If I remember right, we went through something like 7 or 8 straight crushing civ wins before mods started really catching on how big of an issue it was.
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Single mafia games are better than two-mafia games and are more self-balancing. Mafia survive based on their play, civs learn some thing from analysing interactions between players, and it gets harder for civs after they hit mafia but easier after a couple mislynches.

Multi-faction games and games with more powers are much more of a crapshoot. All factions' destiny is somewhat determined by something they had nothing to do with and there's always an element of 'kingmaking' involved.
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
I love you redwing and you’re a very logical good mafia player. I do not agree whatsoever with the logic in the post but support your right to come to this determination.

A partner of mine at my firm (who hired me) went missing yesterday. Found his body after I was speaking with the police late last night. Pills, suicide note. Had a happy family, one year old granddaughter. Tragic and senseless. Prioritizes for you what matters.
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Bro.
 
HoopheadVII said:
I think the power- / role-heavy setups lead to lots of claims that help clear civs and maybe mafia haven't evolved to plan fake claims well enough to counter it. For example, any mafia could claim a role similar to JTP's and said "I have 1 mafia in 4 players" and try to make the town mislynch 3 players to get 1 mafia. That's a level of creativity / confidence / planning / follow-through that is still out there for mafia.
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Eaglez tried it recently and someone made up the joke of "Somehow, Eaglez always gets truth-teller as a made up power."

romanovKU said:
Great game bym. I loved the random albums concept. Would like to see more mechanics like this in teh future, and goaliemom is an incredible facilitator.
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It's so nice to go and record votes and see that your partner has already done it. Or know that you had a crap day at work happening (yesterday) and know that someone has your back.
 
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bym051d said:
Is there a way to salvage JTP's power? Should it be in groups of 2 and RNGed? Was it just that it was a bad RNG and is probably ok?

I think this setup is ripe for repeated use since there's so much random.
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I thought it was ok. You could increase the number of players in the groups to where there almost has to be at least 1 mafia in the group - split the players into two groups instead of 4 for example.

Again, mafia could have claimed the same power and benefited
 
HoopheadVII said:
I thought it was ok. You could increase the number of players in the groups to where there almost has to be at least 1 mafia in the group - split the players into two groups instead of 4 for example.

Again, mafia could have claimed the same power and benefited
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lol this is truly insane hindsight
 
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