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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

TownieDeac said:
I'm not a political strategist, and it's way too early to do this, but maybe if I were Biden (or any other candidate for that matter) running for the Dems, I would have decided that Latino outreach was more important than funneling $100M to the Lincoln project to get 50,000 former Republicans to switch parties for one election. At a moment when the party of dinosaurs needs introspection the most, my guess is their gaze will land no further than Bernie Bros in 2016. If only people weren't so mean on the internet in late 2015, we'd all be at brunch!
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I get that you are hurting, and that leads to shitposting, but at this point, reaching out to the Hispanic community and reaching out to progressives would appear to be at odds with each other. I don't think Bernie Bros had anything to do with the states I named. I guess its possible that he loses progressive votes in the midwest, but unless those folks didn't vote at all, it doesn't appear to be the case.

The message is that florida Hispanics (and those in Tx, for that matter) were concerned about socialism. That is as bullshit a concern as there is, given that Biden shares more values with 'pubs than actual socialists. I can hear the argument that Biden should have specifically campaigned on issues that matter to the Hispanic community, but whatever issues that exist, they appear to be different in Az than in Fla/Tx.

TLDR. I don't fucking know.
 
DeaconBrews said:
Haley is already planning a run for 2024, look at her social media.

I'd argue the Republican contenders are the following if Biden wins (in alphabetical order):

Tom Cotton
Dan Crenshaw
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Josh Hawley

People who may run but who aren't serious contenders if Trump loses:

Pence
Trump Jr. or Ivanka

Rubio may run too, but he has to win his senate seat in 2022 and the Dems will throw half a billion into Florida to get him out.
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No doubt the Democrats will spend a fortune to beat Rubio, but given the way Florida is trending I don't see him losing. If anything, Florida seems to be trending more Republican after this election, especially with the way Cuban-Americans voted. The GOP as a whole seems in a stronger position in FL today than they did in 2016 or 2018. Florida Democrats are going to have to rebuild their party from the ground up, if they can actually get some competent leadership and administration of their state party willing to do it.

ETA: NC Democrats are in the same boat after last night's disaster. Cooper won but the Dems lost about everything else, although Josh Stein may hang on. The NC Democratic party is a dumpster fire and also badly needs revamping and reorganizing from the grassroots up. Whether they will get the leadership they need is another question, they certainly haven't had it for years.
 
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DeaconSig said:
Dude- Donald Trump is going to be the nominee for the 'pubs in 2024 if he loses this race.
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BillBrasky said:
Wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump (Sr) tried to run again in 2024 claiming this election was stolen
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This is what I came to post. Unless he dies, he is running again and winning the nomination in 4 years and we have to go through this shit again. The only hope is that Americans take a breath in the meantime and grow up some. (And four years of boomers die.)
 
Trump in 2024? 4 years is a long time, y'all.
 
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DeaconSig said:
I get that you are hurting, and that leads to shitposting, but at this point, reaching out to the Hispanic community and reaching out to progressives would appear to be at odds with each other. I don't think Bernie Bros had anything to do with the states I named. I guess its possible that he loses progressive votes in the midwest, but unless those folks didn't vote at all, it doesn't appear to be the case.

The message is that florida Hispanics (and those in Tx, for that matter) were concerned about socialism. That is as bullshit a concern as there is, given that Biden shares more values with 'pubs than actual socialists. I can hear the argument that Biden should have specifically campaigned on issues that matter to the Hispanic community, but whatever issues that exist, they appear to be different in Az than in Fla/Tx.

TLDR. I don't fucking know.
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Dems straight up didn't do the fucking work again in 2020. They didn't knock doors. They didn't hold events. They decided their middle of the road advertising to white Dems would play the same in FL and TX that it did in VA, where they ran the same advertisements. Once again, there were parts of the party screaming at the campaign to do more Latino outreach and the party decided they didn't want to. I can predict the next several weeks too, we will hear this comes down to internet disinformation affecting Latinos, who turned out in great numbers but were DUPED.

It's wild to me that only the Trump 2016 and Trump 2020 campaigns have effectively leveraged microtargeting. Imagine that, different messages to different communities.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Is this true even with Maine 2 I thought it would be 269 all?
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AP has Biden at 238 and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada equal 32 EVs which would put him right at 270. Thank god for Nebraska 2
 
DeaconSig said:
Dude- Donald Trump is going to be the nominee for the 'pubs in 2024 if he loses this race.
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1000% serious question. If Biden wins, how is Trump NOT in prison by 2024? Once he is no longer President, he loses his Barr protection, right?
 
Coach O said:
1000% serious question. If Biden wins, how is Trump NOT in prison by 2024? Once he is no longer President, he loses his Barr protection, right?
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he's gonna leave the office and Pence is gonna pardon him !!!!
 
Deutsche Bank has said they're going to come calling on their loans to Trump if he's out in 2020 too. Can't see him making it back to the ballot in 2020.
 
TownieDeac said:
Dems straight up didn't do the fucking work again in 2020. They didn't knock doors. They didn't hold events. They decided their middle of the road advertising to white Dems would play the same in FL and TX that it did in VA, where they ran the same advertisements. Once again, there were parts of the party screaming at the campaign to do more Latino outreach and the party decided they didn't want to. I can predict the next several weeks too, we will hear this comes down to internet disinformation affecting Latinos, who turned out in great numbers but were DUPED.

It's wild to me that only the Trump 2016 and Trump 2020 campaigns have effectively leveraged microtargeting. Imagine that, different messages to different communities.
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Hard to do on-the-ground GOTV activities when you're the party that actually took COVID seriously. I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's probably only about 60/40 normal Democrat incompetence this time.
 
TownieDeac said:
Dems straight up didn't do the fucking work again in 2020. They didn't knock doors. They didn't hold events. They decided their middle of the road advertising to white Dems would play the same in FL and TX that it did in VA, where they ran the same advertisements. Once again, there were parts of the party screaming at the campaign to do more Latino outreach and the party decided they didn't want to. I can predict the next several weeks too, we will hear this comes down to internet disinformation affecting Latinos, who turned out in great numbers but were DUPED.

It's wild to me that only the Trump 2016 and Trump 2020 campaigns have effectively leveraged microtargeting. Imagine that, different messages to different communities.
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Agreed. We kept hearing about how Democrats were vastly outspending Republicans in a lot of these Senate races, but I've read that the bulk of the money went into ads and not traditional door-to-door canvasing and face-to-face interactions. I know some of that was due to the pandemic, but the Democrats also relied on ads and didn't do as much door-to-door in 2016 either, and the GOP managed to do grassroots efforts this year in spite of the pandemic. That's why I posted earlier that the Democrats need to build better (and smarter) party organizations in each state and nationally.
 
Coach O said:
1000% serious question. If Biden wins, how is Trump NOT in prison by 2024? Once he is no longer President, he loses his Barr protection, right?
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If you want there to be absolutely zero chance of the Democrats having a second term, then arrest the former President of the United States.
 
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