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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

My big brain math skills tell me Biden will need about 69% of the remaining PA vote to tie it up, based on the latest info I could find. Is this realistic?
 
Fuck you Joe.

 
 
PA down to 292K margin still with 15% to be counted.
 
I guess Biden could be a Dem version of the skin-thinned orange buffoon that’s treated differing perspectives as treasonous enmity.



Nah, I like his approach better.
 
Nate Silver's latest on the States that remain in play:

NC (15 EC Votes) : likely Trump
GA (16): Tossup to Lean Biden -- the remaining votes to be counted are "very blue" (I will believe a GA win for Biden when I see it); guess the "blue votes remaining to be counted in GA could be good for Ossoff too.
PA (20): Lean Biden
AZ (11): Likely Biden (but he thinks the decision to call AZ for Biden last night was a mistake)
NV (6): Likely Biden

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WI: "Biden Apparent Winner" -- Agrees with the decision to call WI for Biden

Vote count updates on GA and NV expected by 9pm; AZ by 12:30 am.

MI: is no longer in play. Biden's lead has grown to more than 1.2% of the vote, which may be out of the recount range.

With MI and WI in for Biden, he is 17 votes away (Biden has 253 total EC votes) from clinching; so any combination of Biden wins of the remaining states identified above that total 17 or more ends it, until, of course, Trump sends in the Proud Boys or his lawyers or both.
 
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So be feckless and naive, be a buffoon, or kill and jail. No other options...
 
Lol

I doubt Biden’s naive.

He’s saying exactly what he thinks he should. And I suspect it’s a considered perspective.
 
ConnorEl said:
WTF is happening in AZ?
Click to expand...

Here is the summary from 538 on AZ:

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re distributed fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as they are in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be counted) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration breakdown of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday was: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. The state has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve looked into this more than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you do get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden, but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.
 
I'm told that there are 1.4 million mail-in ballots left to count in PA. Biden has been winning the mail-in by 78-21 percent. If that stat is accurate, Biden stands to bank another 1,092,000 votes. Guess we'll see.
 
PA to Biden would be yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge
 
BirdinBama said:
I'm told that there are 1.4 million mail-in ballots left to count in PA. Biden has been winning the mail-in by 78-21 percent. If that stat is accurate, Biden stands to bank another 1,092,000 votes. Guess we'll see.
Click to expand...

Are mail-in ballots not accurately represented by the estimated votes reported? I'm seeing PA at 87% reported, meaning there should be about 779,000 left to count.
 
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