Pilchard
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Our Deacs stagger into the final week of the season to face the depleted Pitt Panthers. FWIW, two weeks ago, WF had steadily risen up KP the rankings to #109 after the OT loss at FSU. Didn't realize that would be the high point of the season, but after 4 losses by an average of 23 ppg, WF has dropped to #157 (just behind vaunted programs like #156 UMBC and #155 Drexel - both with basketball budgets less than 25% of WF's). Ouch. Here is the breakdown of the Panthers, who have also had their season crater recently:
The Pitt season: On January 23, Pitt played WF sitting 8-2 (4-1 - second in the ACC) fresh off a signature 6 point win over Duke. Well, the following month+ has not been kind to the Panthers as Pitt lost to WF as part of a ongoing 1-8 run to drop to 9-10 (5-9). Currently, Pitt is rated #81. Unlike the Deacs, despite the consistent Panther string of losses, Pitt has been competitive (only one conference loss has been by more than 10 points). Yesterday, minus their second and third best players, Pitt hung with NC State in Raleigh, losing by 3. The big news for Pitt was last week's decision of starting PG Xavier Johnson (14 ppg; 5 apg) and SF Au'Diese Toney (14 ppg; 5 rpg) to bolt the program and enter the transfer portal with games still left on the schedule. As result, the Deacs will be facing a lean and inexperienced Panther squad tomorrow.
The line-up: Against State, the Panthers started:
6-5 Fr. Femi Odukale - New starting PG; played more than 30 minutes for the first time yesterday (38 minutes) and scored a career 18 points; poor shooter 22% from 2
6-3 So. Ithiel Horton - Delaware transfer; struggling recently (27% FG% over the last 4 games); has scored in double figures 7 times this year
6-4 Sr. Nike Sibande - Miami (O) transfer; not a shooter (8 threes on the season; 28% from 2 on the season); only played 11 games all year, but logged 36 and 38 minutes in the last two
6-6 So. Justin Champagnie - ACC POY candidate; leads Pitt in minutes, points and rebounds; struggled from 3 recently (1 for 14 in February); double digit scorer in every game;
6-8 So. Abdoul Karim Coulibaly - can't score; his only double digit scoring game came against.... um... WF; not a great rebounder for his size
Off the bench: The loss of Johnson and Toney has led to more minutes for the guys on the end of the Panther bench, such as:
6-10 Sr. Terrell Brown - averaged less than 10 minutes and 3 ppg, but played 33 minutes and scored 11 and grabbed 11 boards against State
6-7 Fr. William Jeffress - was a DNP coaches decision six times over the last 9 games heading into State, but played 19 minutes scored 3 points and grabbed 2 boards; 17% from 3
6-5 So. Gerald Drumgoole - was a DNP coaches decision in every game, but one since December, played 5 minutes against State; can't score
Analytics: Analytics don't really matter to preview in the WF/Pitt game because the numbers are largely based on the minutes played by and the Panther style of play using Xavier Johnson and Au'Diese Toney over 93% of Pitt's schedule; they are gone. Of relevant note, in the first game without those two, Pitt and State played at slow tempo (65 possessions), and Pitt DOMINATED State on the boards out rebounding the Pack 45 to 31; Pitt also essentially ignored the three point shot; shooting only 10 for the game and making only 3. Without Johnson and Toney, Pitt is bigger, and they play slow/half-court game as they pound the ball inside.
Bottom Line: KP projects a 74-65 Pitt win, but that projection is based on numbers generated with Johnson and Toney. On the flip-side, WF is in free fall and only attracts action from masochists at this point. FWIW, the under in this game appears to be the call. The total is not going to be the 139 projected by KP, but if its 134 or higher, it's an auto-play. WF has AVERAGED 51 points per game over its last 4, and no one on this team has shooter's confidence right now. Pitt has lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers, and is playing a different style. Also, outside of Champagnie (who's offense has dipped), no one else on Pitt's roster can be considered a consistent scorer. Finally, Pitt can't shoot the 3 right now, and WF has had a string of opponents that have been unconscious from outside the arc. To avoid getting killed on the boards, WF is going to need Ody to stay out of foul trouble, and everyone is going to have help on the boards. Yes, WF basketball has hit the wall, but Pitt has WON a single game since January 19, and their PG has never had to close out a game (BTW, Odukale is a horrendous FT shooter; 49% on the season). If WF is getting 8+ ATS, given the style of play and lack of experience of the Pitt roster, I will take the Deacs. Yes, I need help.
For those that like to tout about how the ACC is down, tomorrow's game should be Exhibit A. This is going to be low-level rock fight.
The Pitt season: On January 23, Pitt played WF sitting 8-2 (4-1 - second in the ACC) fresh off a signature 6 point win over Duke. Well, the following month+ has not been kind to the Panthers as Pitt lost to WF as part of a ongoing 1-8 run to drop to 9-10 (5-9). Currently, Pitt is rated #81. Unlike the Deacs, despite the consistent Panther string of losses, Pitt has been competitive (only one conference loss has been by more than 10 points). Yesterday, minus their second and third best players, Pitt hung with NC State in Raleigh, losing by 3. The big news for Pitt was last week's decision of starting PG Xavier Johnson (14 ppg; 5 apg) and SF Au'Diese Toney (14 ppg; 5 rpg) to bolt the program and enter the transfer portal with games still left on the schedule. As result, the Deacs will be facing a lean and inexperienced Panther squad tomorrow.
The line-up: Against State, the Panthers started:
6-5 Fr. Femi Odukale - New starting PG; played more than 30 minutes for the first time yesterday (38 minutes) and scored a career 18 points; poor shooter 22% from 2
6-3 So. Ithiel Horton - Delaware transfer; struggling recently (27% FG% over the last 4 games); has scored in double figures 7 times this year
6-4 Sr. Nike Sibande - Miami (O) transfer; not a shooter (8 threes on the season; 28% from 2 on the season); only played 11 games all year, but logged 36 and 38 minutes in the last two
6-6 So. Justin Champagnie - ACC POY candidate; leads Pitt in minutes, points and rebounds; struggled from 3 recently (1 for 14 in February); double digit scorer in every game;
6-8 So. Abdoul Karim Coulibaly - can't score; his only double digit scoring game came against.... um... WF; not a great rebounder for his size
Off the bench: The loss of Johnson and Toney has led to more minutes for the guys on the end of the Panther bench, such as:
6-10 Sr. Terrell Brown - averaged less than 10 minutes and 3 ppg, but played 33 minutes and scored 11 and grabbed 11 boards against State
6-7 Fr. William Jeffress - was a DNP coaches decision six times over the last 9 games heading into State, but played 19 minutes scored 3 points and grabbed 2 boards; 17% from 3
6-5 So. Gerald Drumgoole - was a DNP coaches decision in every game, but one since December, played 5 minutes against State; can't score
Analytics: Analytics don't really matter to preview in the WF/Pitt game because the numbers are largely based on the minutes played by and the Panther style of play using Xavier Johnson and Au'Diese Toney over 93% of Pitt's schedule; they are gone. Of relevant note, in the first game without those two, Pitt and State played at slow tempo (65 possessions), and Pitt DOMINATED State on the boards out rebounding the Pack 45 to 31; Pitt also essentially ignored the three point shot; shooting only 10 for the game and making only 3. Without Johnson and Toney, Pitt is bigger, and they play slow/half-court game as they pound the ball inside.
Bottom Line: KP projects a 74-65 Pitt win, but that projection is based on numbers generated with Johnson and Toney. On the flip-side, WF is in free fall and only attracts action from masochists at this point. FWIW, the under in this game appears to be the call. The total is not going to be the 139 projected by KP, but if its 134 or higher, it's an auto-play. WF has AVERAGED 51 points per game over its last 4, and no one on this team has shooter's confidence right now. Pitt has lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers, and is playing a different style. Also, outside of Champagnie (who's offense has dipped), no one else on Pitt's roster can be considered a consistent scorer. Finally, Pitt can't shoot the 3 right now, and WF has had a string of opponents that have been unconscious from outside the arc. To avoid getting killed on the boards, WF is going to need Ody to stay out of foul trouble, and everyone is going to have help on the boards. Yes, WF basketball has hit the wall, but Pitt has WON a single game since January 19, and their PG has never had to close out a game (BTW, Odukale is a horrendous FT shooter; 49% on the season). If WF is getting 8+ ATS, given the style of play and lack of experience of the Pitt roster, I will take the Deacs. Yes, I need help.
For those that like to tout about how the ACC is down, tomorrow's game should be Exhibit A. This is going to be low-level rock fight.
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