Pilchard
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WF, winners 6 of its last 7 ACC games, steams into Raleigh to take on the stumbling Wolfpack. Here is a quick take on Kevin Keatts squad:
NC State Coach: It all started out so well for Keatts. Taking over for the disgraced Mark Gottfried before the 2017-8 season, Keatts took the 2018 Pack to the NCAA tourney in his first year at the helm. Sadly for Pack fans, the 2018 NCAA one and done Pack has been the highlight of Keatts tenure in Raleigh, as the Pack have been on a steady slide since that season. Here are the Pack's final KP ratings under Keatts: #46, #41, #50, #71, #119, and no NCAA bids since year #1. Not exactly trending in the right direction. Further, every one of Keatts' teams since 2018 has finished the season with a worse rating than it had in December. So, his teams regress as the season goes on. This year, NC State peaked at 6-1 and #61 on December 1st. Since then, State has a 4-13 record and has dropped 58 spots in the rankings. KK's seat must be getting toasty.
2021-22 Pack: 10-14(3-10) #119. NC State's issues are easy to detect. DEFENSE. NC State is the worst defensive team in the conference. They are DFL in effective FG% defense (56.8%), in 3 PT% defense (42.5), 2nd to last in preventing offensive boards, 12th in 2 PT defense (53%) and DFL in overall defensive efficiency in conference games. State has yet to hold an ACC opponent to less than 1 point per possession. WF has done that 7 times. If State doesn't turnover the opponent, they either get an open three or a layup. State is a middle of the pack (get it?) offensive team. They are heavily reliant on the three as among ACC teams only VT generates a higher percentage of its offense from behind the arc. In State's 3 conference wins, they lit it up from deep (38% against VT; 48% against L'ville; 55% against UVA). Outside of Seabron drives to the basket, State doesn't score inside (47% from 2 in conference games), and doesn't get to the line often (14th in the ACC in FTA/FGA).
Roster:
State's fortunes took a hit early when C Manny Bates went down in game #1. Without Bates, the Pack lack an inside presence on offense or defense.
In Saturday's home loss to ND, the Pack started:
G 6-4 Fr. Terquavion Smith: team leader in 3s made; will shoot from Curry range; 37% on the season; 16 ppg; more TOs than assists; took 15 threes in the loss to Cuse;
G 6-3 Jr. Casey Morsell: UVA transfer; was a horrid 3 point shooter at UVA - 21%; has been hot lately - 51% in ACC games; scored in double figures 4 of the last 6 games
F 6-7 So. Dereon Sebron: had his first double figure game as a frosh against WF; has been a dominant scorer this year: 18 ppg; 55% from 2; also leads the Pack in rebounds (9 rpg) and assists (3.5); can take the ball to the rack; struggled from 3 -- 25%; NBA future
F 6-7 Sr. Jericole Hellums: three year starter; 14 ppg; 41% from 3; coming off his two worst games of the year: scoreless against ND; 3 points against Cuse
C 6-10 So. Jaylon Gibson: started the last two after starting C Dowuona suffered an injury; scored a career high 14 against Cuse last week; has never attempted a three
The bench:
C 6-11 So. Ebenezer Dowuona: coming back from injury; played 18 minutes against ND; can't score -- 4 ppg; leads team in blocks; lacks skill
G 6-3 So. Cam Hayes: has had a disappointing season; started early, but hasn't started since January 1; shooting 21% from 3; 40% from 2;
G 6-1 Sr. Thomas Allen: Nebraska transfer; held scoreless in 4 of the last 6 games; solid assist rate based on limited minutes played
The Projection: KP projects a 78-74 WF in in 70 possessions. WF is a bad matchup for the Pack, as WF is the best team in the ACC in scoring inside, and NC State interior defense is toothless. State has two paths to victory: forcing TOs and hitting a ton of 3s. While it was sweet to get a win in Tallahassee, WF had massive TO problems, and fully expect NC State to over pressure the ball based on WF's TO problems, and the knowledge that the Pack has no hope of defending the Deacs around the basket. If WF can protect the ball just a little and keep State from getting off from deep, WF wins. Would be sweet as WF has won a total of ONE game at NC State since the nut punch game on March 6, 2005. That's 1-15 on the road in Raleigh.
NC State Coach: It all started out so well for Keatts. Taking over for the disgraced Mark Gottfried before the 2017-8 season, Keatts took the 2018 Pack to the NCAA tourney in his first year at the helm. Sadly for Pack fans, the 2018 NCAA one and done Pack has been the highlight of Keatts tenure in Raleigh, as the Pack have been on a steady slide since that season. Here are the Pack's final KP ratings under Keatts: #46, #41, #50, #71, #119, and no NCAA bids since year #1. Not exactly trending in the right direction. Further, every one of Keatts' teams since 2018 has finished the season with a worse rating than it had in December. So, his teams regress as the season goes on. This year, NC State peaked at 6-1 and #61 on December 1st. Since then, State has a 4-13 record and has dropped 58 spots in the rankings. KK's seat must be getting toasty.
2021-22 Pack: 10-14(3-10) #119. NC State's issues are easy to detect. DEFENSE. NC State is the worst defensive team in the conference. They are DFL in effective FG% defense (56.8%), in 3 PT% defense (42.5), 2nd to last in preventing offensive boards, 12th in 2 PT defense (53%) and DFL in overall defensive efficiency in conference games. State has yet to hold an ACC opponent to less than 1 point per possession. WF has done that 7 times. If State doesn't turnover the opponent, they either get an open three or a layup. State is a middle of the pack (get it?) offensive team. They are heavily reliant on the three as among ACC teams only VT generates a higher percentage of its offense from behind the arc. In State's 3 conference wins, they lit it up from deep (38% against VT; 48% against L'ville; 55% against UVA). Outside of Seabron drives to the basket, State doesn't score inside (47% from 2 in conference games), and doesn't get to the line often (14th in the ACC in FTA/FGA).
Roster:
State's fortunes took a hit early when C Manny Bates went down in game #1. Without Bates, the Pack lack an inside presence on offense or defense.
In Saturday's home loss to ND, the Pack started:
G 6-4 Fr. Terquavion Smith: team leader in 3s made; will shoot from Curry range; 37% on the season; 16 ppg; more TOs than assists; took 15 threes in the loss to Cuse;
G 6-3 Jr. Casey Morsell: UVA transfer; was a horrid 3 point shooter at UVA - 21%; has been hot lately - 51% in ACC games; scored in double figures 4 of the last 6 games
F 6-7 So. Dereon Sebron: had his first double figure game as a frosh against WF; has been a dominant scorer this year: 18 ppg; 55% from 2; also leads the Pack in rebounds (9 rpg) and assists (3.5); can take the ball to the rack; struggled from 3 -- 25%; NBA future
F 6-7 Sr. Jericole Hellums: three year starter; 14 ppg; 41% from 3; coming off his two worst games of the year: scoreless against ND; 3 points against Cuse
C 6-10 So. Jaylon Gibson: started the last two after starting C Dowuona suffered an injury; scored a career high 14 against Cuse last week; has never attempted a three
The bench:
C 6-11 So. Ebenezer Dowuona: coming back from injury; played 18 minutes against ND; can't score -- 4 ppg; leads team in blocks; lacks skill
G 6-3 So. Cam Hayes: has had a disappointing season; started early, but hasn't started since January 1; shooting 21% from 3; 40% from 2;
G 6-1 Sr. Thomas Allen: Nebraska transfer; held scoreless in 4 of the last 6 games; solid assist rate based on limited minutes played
The Projection: KP projects a 78-74 WF in in 70 possessions. WF is a bad matchup for the Pack, as WF is the best team in the ACC in scoring inside, and NC State interior defense is toothless. State has two paths to victory: forcing TOs and hitting a ton of 3s. While it was sweet to get a win in Tallahassee, WF had massive TO problems, and fully expect NC State to over pressure the ball based on WF's TO problems, and the knowledge that the Pack has no hope of defending the Deacs around the basket. If WF can protect the ball just a little and keep State from getting off from deep, WF wins. Would be sweet as WF has won a total of ONE game at NC State since the nut punch game on March 6, 2005. That's 1-15 on the road in Raleigh.
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