Pilchard
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- May 3, 2011
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2021-22 Season Update: A lot has changed since WF lost at L'ville 73-69 on December 29. Initially, it wasn't all bad for the Cards as they ascended into 1st place in the conference on January 5th with a 4-0 record 10-4 overall. Then, the bottom dropped out of the L'ville season. Since January 5th, the Cards are 2-11 as the they have only been able to manage home wins over BC (67-54) and Clemson (70-61). During that awful stretch, L'ville is 0-6 on the ACC road having lost @: FSU, NC State (by 16), Pitt (by 12), UVA (by 12), Cuse (by 23), ND (by 6) and UNC (by 6). Oh yeah, in the middle of the slide, on January 26, they also fired HC Chris Mack and assistant Mike Pegues has led the Cards since that move. The firing hasn't changed L'ville's fortunes as Pegues has a 1-6 record since taking over the job. That said, the Cards have been more competitive over their last 4 games: 6 point road loss to ND, 7 point home loss to Miami, 9 point win over Clemson, 7 point road loss to UNC (it was a 1 point game with less than 3 minutes to go). So, it appears that the team has not quit under Pegues.
L'ville - Roster Update: : Reserve Matt Cross has missed the last two games for L'ville. Coach Pegues has changed the Cardinals starting lineup recently. Against UNC, L'ville started: 5-11 Jarrod West, 6-3 El Ellis (played only 3 minutes against WF in December), 6-5 Dre Davis (scoreless against WF in December), 6-8 Jae-Lyn Withers (17 minutes and 6 points against WF), and 6-11 Malik Williams (benched to start February; has played well recently; hit a key 3 to beat WF in December). Williams, Withers and Davis led the Cards in scoring all with 10 points against UNC on Monday.
Projection: KP projects an easy 76-65 WF win on Saturday in 70 possessions. Hope so. Crazy projected line swing from the first game as WF was a 5 point dog (WF covered) at L'ville in December, and WF is projected to be a double digit favorite (-11) at home on Saturday. Even factoring home court, the 16 point swing since game 1 is very unusual. Then again, L'ville is 2-8 on the road this year, having loss their last 6 road games in a row with no loss closer than 6 points. OTOH, WF is 14-2 at home this year, and has the 14th best home court advantage in all of college basketball according to KP. Guessing that Coach Forbes will have his team ready to play on Saturday after WF's worst loss of the season to Clemson yesterday. Given how L'ville has fallen off the table, this is a game where WF has more to lose than it does to gain as a win over the #126 team doesn't help a lot, but a loss would be devastating. Think WF will win; not comfortable with WF laying double digits given that L'ville has been competitive lately.
L'ville - Roster Update: : Reserve Matt Cross has missed the last two games for L'ville. Coach Pegues has changed the Cardinals starting lineup recently. Against UNC, L'ville started: 5-11 Jarrod West, 6-3 El Ellis (played only 3 minutes against WF in December), 6-5 Dre Davis (scoreless against WF in December), 6-8 Jae-Lyn Withers (17 minutes and 6 points against WF), and 6-11 Malik Williams (benched to start February; has played well recently; hit a key 3 to beat WF in December). Williams, Withers and Davis led the Cards in scoring all with 10 points against UNC on Monday.
Projection: KP projects an easy 76-65 WF win on Saturday in 70 possessions. Hope so. Crazy projected line swing from the first game as WF was a 5 point dog (WF covered) at L'ville in December, and WF is projected to be a double digit favorite (-11) at home on Saturday. Even factoring home court, the 16 point swing since game 1 is very unusual. Then again, L'ville is 2-8 on the road this year, having loss their last 6 road games in a row with no loss closer than 6 points. OTOH, WF is 14-2 at home this year, and has the 14th best home court advantage in all of college basketball according to KP. Guessing that Coach Forbes will have his team ready to play on Saturday after WF's worst loss of the season to Clemson yesterday. Given how L'ville has fallen off the table, this is a game where WF has more to lose than it does to gain as a win over the #126 team doesn't help a lot, but a loss would be devastating. Think WF will win; not comfortable with WF laying double digits given that L'ville has been competitive lately.
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